John Bolton’s Likely Republican Presidential Candidacy Promises to Raise the Level of Debate

Bookmark and Share At age 15, John Boltonwas excused from school to hand out pamphlets for the Presidential

Ambassador John Bolton

campaign of Republican Barry Goldwater. At age 59, disgusted by what he sees as Constitutional breaches, a degradation of freedom and ignored national security threats, John Bolton is seriously considering his own run for President.

In an interview with National Review, the former Ambassador to the United Nations states that he first seriously began to think about a run for President during the 2008 presidential election in which he was astonished by the lack of attention paid to national security concerns. Since then after seeing what he calls President Obamas obsession with restructuring our domestic way of life, Bolton has become even more compelled than ever to run for President and insure that the next presidential campaign does not cheat the nation out of a serious national security debate.

But national security is not the only issue that can comprise a campaign for President and John Bolton knows it and is eagerly prepared to address domestic issues.

As a self described libertarian conservative, Bolton is very much a political anti-establishmentarian who is disgusted by the way he feels the political establishment looks down their noses at those who aligned with the sentiments of the TEA Party movement. As such he has an aggressive domestic agenda that could be best described as a rollback of federal excesses, especially in the areas of regulation and taxation.

National Review noted that during the course of their interview, Bolton was careful to state if he runs but he occasionally accidentally let slip some verbal tenses that were more definitive.

The former Ambassador assures voters that if he runs, it will be a genuine candidacy that is not meant to advance anymotivesother than that of the issues and the direction that he believes the nation must go in. At the same time, he realizes that many may view the candidacy of a figure as polarizing him to be a long shot but he swears that if he gets in to the race, he will, be in it to win it.

If Bolton does take the plunge, many outside of the G.O.P. may not take him serious, at least not at first, but those in conservative circles are certain to be impressed by his breadth of knowledge of the issues, both foreign and domestic, and many of them are also going to be quite enamored by his refreshingly ambitious conservative domestic and social and economic agenda. In the end Bolton is not likely to win the Republican presidential nomination. His fundraising capabilities will be his greatest initial handicap and electability will be an overall overriding hurdle in a general election. But in the final analysis, a Bolton candidacy is going to elevate the level of debate on all issues, prompt a rightward slant of the rest of the field and improve the overall quality of our final nominee, a nominee who after Bolton gets his next five minutes of fame, will want the weight of his endorsement behind them.

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  1. […] of whom have prompted considerable buzz among conservative activists, or about Michele Bachmann and John Bolton, who haven’t. Gallup also didn’t ask about Donald Trump, who promises to decide whether to dive […]

  2. For immediate release April 6, 2011
    Contact: Casey Peters 951-213-6032 democracy@mail2world.com
    Paula Lee 916-704-0195

    Romney wins California Republican Delegates Poll

    55 delegates and attendees surveyed at the California Republican Convention on March 18-20, 2011, in Sacramento California showed a strong initial liking for Newt Gingrich and John Bolton as potential presidential candidates, but after 8 rounds of Ranked Choice Ballots were tabulated, GOP activists came to consensus favoring Mitt Romney as the likely nominee.

    What this poll shows that other polls do not is the depth and breadth of internal party support for various candidates. Ranked Choice Ballots give each respondent the opportunity to express who they favor most and who else they are willing to accept in a fallback position.

    Newt Gingrich and John Bolton show strong early support but do not build their numbers much after that, whereas Mitt Romney has fewer first choice supporters but substantial second choice votes and many who prefer him after indicating other preferences among candidates with scattered support.

    Candidates like Mike Huckabee, John Thune, Sarah Palin and Ron Paul all show the ability to be contenders. Other, mostly lesser known hopefuls, including a surprising number of write-ins, have definite appeal to knowledgeable party activists despite being on the periphery of the 2012 race.

    At an open Republican nominating convention, similar results would be seen in Romney slowly gaining in early ballots with an old-fashioned stampede toward his candidacy at the end.

    The fact that those expressing their opinions in this poll were attendees at the California Republican Party convention (and mostly GOP delegates), and are therefore party activists not just average voters, gives additional power to the results of this Ranked Choice Ballot survey.

    This poll was conducted by Californians for Electoral Reform, a nonpartisan group that had an information table at the California Republican convention where many delegates stopped randomly to cast a Ranked Choice Ballot by enumerating preferences from among nineteen names of potential presidential hopefuls listed and two write-in spaces.

    — MORE

    ROUND-BY-ROUND RESULTS OF
    REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL SURVEY
    Conducted at California State Convention, March 18-20, 2011

    Only number One choices are counted in the first round. The lowest ranked candidate(s) is (are) then eliminated in the next round, and each ballot is transferred to the next preference of each individual voter whose earlier choices had been eliminated. Only the highest ranking still active on any ballot is counted in any given round. To learn more about Ranked Choice Ballots, see http://www.cfer.org or http://www.fairvote.org

    ROUND ONE
    With 19 potential candidates listed on the ballot, and first choice write-ins cast for 6 more names plus 1 for none-of-the-above, more than a quarter of ballot-listed names were eliminated in the first round by a relatively small sample of 55 voters. Those eliminated were Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum and Donald Trump.
    10 Newt Gingrich
    7 John Bolton
    5 Mike Huckabee
    4 Ron Paul
    4 Mitt Romney
    3 Sarah Palin
    3 John Thune
    2 Jeb Bush
    2 Marco Rubio (write-ins)
    1 Haley Barbour
    1 Herman Cain
    1 Chris Christie (write-in)
    1 Mitch Daniels
    1 Jim DeMint (write-in)
    1 Nikki Haley
    1 Jon Huntsman
    1 Gary Johnson (write-in)
    1 Tim Pawlenty
    1 Mike Pence
    1 Dana Perino (write-in)
    1 Condoleezza Rice (write-in)
    1 Allen West (write-in)
    1 none of the above (write-in)
    1 blank ballot

    ROUND TWO
    Most candidates with only one vote in the first round are eliminated and each ballot is transferred to the individual voters next choice. Not eliminated were candidates who would advance due to second choice votes, and one write-in name with two second choice write-in votes, Paul Ryan, was added. Eliminated in the second round were Haley Barbour, Herman Cain, Mitch Daniels, Nikki Haley, John Huntsman, Mike Pence and write-in candidates Jim DeMint, Gary Johnson, Dana Perino, Condoleezza Rice, and Allen West. Significantly, six ballots were transferred to Mitt Romney. Two other ballots had no further selections so, along with the one blank ballot from the first round, are considered exhausted ballots.
    10 Newt Gingrich
    10 Mitt Romney
    7 John Bolton
    5 Mike Huckabee
    4 Ron Paul
    3 Sarah Palin
    3 John Thune
    2 Jeb Bush
    2 Marco Rubio (write-ins)
    2 Chris Christie (write-ins)
    2 Tim Pawlenty
    2 Paul Ryan (write-ins)
    3 exhausted ballots

    ROUND THREE
    Candidates with only two votes in the second round are eliminated and each ballot is transferred to the individual voters next choice. Not eliminated were candidates who would advance due to next choice votes. Eliminated in the third round were Tim Pawlenty and write-ins Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan.
    11 Mitt Romney
    10 Newt Gingrich
    9 John Bolton
    5 Mike Huckabee
    4 Ron Paul
    4 Sarah Palin
    3 John Thune
    3 Jeb Bush
    3 Chris Christie (write-ins)
    3 exhausted ballots

    ROUND FOUR
    Candidates with only three votes in the third round are eliminated and each ballot is transferred to the individual voters next choice. Not eliminated were candidates who would advance due to next choice votes. Eliminated in the fourth round were Jeb Bush and write-in Chris Christie. One more ballot was retired due to no further markings for active choices.
    11 Mitt Romney
    10 Newt Gingrich
    10 John Bolton
    7 Mike Huckabee
    5 John Thune
    4 Ron Paul
    4 Sarah Palin
    4 exhausted ballots

    ROUND FIVE
    Candidates with only four votes in the fourth round are eliminated and each ballot is transferred to the individual voters next choice. Eliminated in the fifth round were Sarah Palin and Ron Paul. Four additional ballots were exhausted.
    12 Mitt Romney
    11 Newt Gingrich
    10 John Bolton
    8 Mike Huckabee
    6 John Thune
    8 exhausted ballots

    ROUND SIX
    Eliminated in the sixth round was John Thune. Three more ballots did not include choices for any remaining candidates.
    14 Mitt Romney
    11 Newt Gingrich
    10 John Bolton
    9 Mike Huckabee
    11 exhausted ballots

    ROUND SEVEN
    Eliminated in the seventh round was Mike Huckabee. Two more ballots added to exhausted pile.
    17 Mitt Romney
    14 Newt Gingrich
    11 John Bolton
    13 exhausted ballots

    ROUND EIGHT
    Eliminated in the eighth round was John Bolton. Transfer of these ballots to his supporters individual next preferences decided the ultimate winner of this survey, Mitt Romney, with Newt Gingrich second.
    21 Mitt Romney
    16 Newt Gingrich
    18 exhausted ballots

    RANKED CHOICE BALLOTS
    Used in several countries, and in many organizations (including by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences to choose the Oscar winner for Best Picture), there are numerous names for Ranked Choice Ballots. They include Alternative Vote, Enumerated Ballots, the Hare System, Instant Runoff Voting, Preference or Preferential Voting, and the Single Transferable Vote.
    When only one candidate is to be selected, this vote-counting system requires that the winner achieve at least 50% of the vote from the active ballots. Usually that means a majority among the most popular candidates remaining after elimination of less popular candidates have been made in earlier rounds.
    For instance in the present example, Newt Gingrich lead the initial field, but with just under 20% of the votes cast. After the transfer of ballots, Mitt Romney has the lead with nearly 40% of all votes cast and over 50% of ballots that still carry marks in favor of any candidates remaining after earlier eliminations.
    The United Kingdom will hold a referendum on May 5, 2011, to determine whether to use the Alternative Vote (a.k.a. Ranked Choice Ballots) to elect Members of Parliament.
    To learn more about Ranked Choice Ballots, see http://www.cfer.org or http://www.fairvote.org

    ###

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