Michele Bachmann’s Ready To Announce Her Candidacy for President

Bookmark and Share White House 2012 had previously made clear that the month of May, would begin to set the Republican race for President in stone. Most potential candidates had indicated at the latest, a June deadline for their decisions. As such, any of them who were leaning towards announcing their candidacy, would more than likely have to make some preparation that would not go unnoticed by either the media, political insiders, or both. That is now the case with Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann.

The recent decisions by Donald Trump and most especially Mike Huckabee, seem to have taken her from giving a run some serious consideration, to being sure that she will run.

According to political reporter and analysts Chris Stirewalt, on Monday, on the heels of both Huckabees and Trumps decisions not to run for President, advisors to Congresswoman Bachmann let it be know that she is likely to jump in to the race and that she has begun searching for pollsters, consultants and all the other necessary staff components for a presidential campaign. According to Stirewalt, one D.C. based consultant close to Bachmanns camp said This is now beyond speculation. They are doing this.

I have been leery of Michele Bachmanns intentions to run for President in 2012. This is not based on any disapproval of the Congresswoman. To the contrary, it was based on a hope of for the longevity of her ability to be a maverick political forceon the inside of the system.

Beyond two of the first three nominating contests, I fear that the Congresswomans chances of winning enough primaries and caucuses were out of her reach. Bachmann can and probably will do quite well in the early contests of Iowa and South Carolina. These two states are uniquely ripe for her character and politics. And as is Bachmann, these two states are strongly influenced by evangelical principles and activism. In fact they are dominated by evangelical forces, especially in the case of Republican politics. But once the campaign moves beyond Iowa, and South Carolina, that influence which is a strong suit for the Congresswoman, will become more and more diluted. This is especially true in contests outside of the Southern Bible Belt.

Even New Hampshires primary, which falls in between the Iowa Caucus and the South Carolina Primary election, Bachmann is not likely to do very well. But a loss there would certainly derail her candidacy. New Hampshire id a state closely connected to Mitt Romney and he expected to be the winner there. Besides, if Bachmann could bookend a loss in New Hampshire with wins in Iowa and South Carolina, New Hampshire will be nothing more than a bump in the road.

After South Carolina, Bachmann will still have a fair shot at Florida, another state that has a highly active evangelical Republican structure. But here Bachmann will begin to struggle with a the more diverse electorates of the more heavily populated states in the nation. Ultimately, I believe that while Bachmann will start strong I do not believe that she will finish strong and in the end, not win the Republican presidential nomination. It is for that reason, that I have doubted Bachmanns willingness to run for a nomination that she is less likely to win than lose and give up her seat in the House of Representatives in the process.

Recent events though, shed some light on why Michele Bachmann might be inclined to not seek reelection in the House.

Bachmann knows that in 2012, with president Obama at the top of the ticket, Democrats are going to target her. The Congresswoman is a thorn in the lefts side and so in addition to wanting to try to take enough seats to recapture control of the House, they would love to do so by ridding themselves of Republican firebrands like her. But Bachmann has never shied away from a tough race and she has usually prevailed. This time though, in addition to being targeted by Democrats, Bachmann will be a victim of redistricting. How much her district will be redrawn is not yet established, but no matter how it is drawn, she will have to campaign for reelection among voters that are new to her and those voters will probably not be as conservative as they are in her district as it currently exists.

The combination of the knowledge that Bachmann will be damaged by redistricting and that she will be a top target by Democrats and President Obama himself, may account for Bachmanns willingness to choose a run for President over standing for reelection to Congress. Additionally; there is nothing to say that if the Congresswomans presidential campaign starts to wane early enough, she could always pull out of the race in time to file her papers for reelection to her current House seat.

So Bachmann may not have much to lose by running for President while at the same time, she could have much to gain. Her presidential candidacy will advance the issues that are important to her. It will also raise her visibility and national ID which in turn will elevate her level of influence in conservative circles.

If Bachmann does in fact run, while she may not have the best chance at winning the nomination, her candidacy will certainly have a large effect on who is or isnt the nominee. In many ways, Congresswoman Bachmann could play the same role in the 2012 nomination contest that Mike Huckabee played in the 2008 contests. She could be strong enough to attract enough votes from other candidates like Rick Santorum, Jon Huntsman, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, and/or Mitch Daniels, to allow Mitt Romney to win.

That is the effect that Mike Huckabee had in 2008. He attracted enough votes away from Mitt Romney, to make it possible for John McCain to ultimately win the nomination. And like Mike Huckabee, now that he is out of the race, Congresswoman Bachmann could easily win the Iowa Caucuses. At the very least, this could all help delay the emergence of a clear frontrunner.

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One Response

  1. How about a ticket of Michelle Bachmann (President) and Herman Cain (VP)? Or how about Cain and Bachmann? I’m likin’ either of these . . .

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