While several new national polls show Herman Cain besting Mitt Romney in several states such as Ohio and Arizona, new CNN/Time/ORC polls released late Wednesday, shows that Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leads all his Republican rivals in each of the four states to be holding the first four nominating contests in 2012 race for the Republican nomination.
In Iowa, the first in the nation caucus, Mitt Romney holds a slim 2% lead with 23% to Herman Cain’s 21%.
Following Iowa’s caucuses will be New Hampshire’s first in the nation primary. There, Romney finds himself with one of those rare totals that break him out of the mid-twenty’s which he has been stuck in for months. Again, Herman Cain holds the number two spot but in the Granite state, it is 27 percentage points behind Romney.
South Carolina surprisingly gives Romney the top spot but as in Iowa it is by a slim margin over Herman Cain who falls 2% behind Romney’s 25%.
Then there is Florida. After Cain won the Florida Republican presidential straw poll a few ago, this new poll gives Romney almost a 2 to 1 lead over Cain. In what is an 8 man race, Romney gets a healthy 30% from the Sunshine State. Cain receives 18%, a full 12% behind Mitt Romney
While all polls are only fleeting snapshots of a moment time, the picture these numbers show do tell a compelling story that none of the candidates can ignore.
Although several new national polls have recently shown Herman Cain ahead of Mitt Romney, in the Republican nomination contest, national polls means far less than state polls. And few state polls on the Republican presidential candidates mean as much as the first four contests of Iowa, New Hampshire , South Carolina and Florida. These four states will separate the contenders from the wannabes. They will determine which candidates will really have a fighting chance for the presidential nomination. And in the case of South Carolina and Florida, they could very well determine who the ultimate nominee is.
The fact that Mitt Romney is currently leading in each of the first four nomination contests, is a sign not only that Romney is the real frontrunner, it is also an indication that Romney has been running a smart campaign that has been doing all the right things. It shows that he has organizational strength and that he is on track to win the nomination in a way that the other candidates are not. Some of the most startling numbers are those of Iowa and South Carolina, where the strong influence of the evangelical vote and the issue of Romney’s Mormon faith do not work in Romney favors. Yet despite those roadblocks, Romney is in the lead. Of course, the evangelical vote also happens to be one of the most well organized voting blocs there is, and normal polling may not be able to properly pick up on that influence.
While these polls are good news for both Romney and Cain, Mitt Romney is the real winner here. The big loser is undeniably Rick Santorum who with the exception of Iowa is dead last in these polls. Another big loser here is the other Rick, Rick Perry. Perry’s plummet from frontrunner to one of those in the middle of the pack, is a substantial blow that steals any momentum he made and in essence leaves him spending more time than he can afford in the pit, having his tires fixed.
Two more interesting stories behind these numbers involve Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich.
Up to now, Newt Gingrich’s campaign has been a bit like a Zombie. It has been dead but marching along the perimeter of the nomination. However these these four state polls now show signs of life for Gingrich’s campaign. If anything, it indicates that his numbers have picked up and if he can finally get some traction, he is a good position to pick up supporters from candidates like Bachmann and Santorum who are showing little signs of success, Rick Perry who is slipping, and be available to become a decent alternative to Romney and Cain and pick up any support that either may lose as we forward.
And speaking of Zombies, these new numbers prove that Ron Paul’s supporters are as active and consistent as ever.
The 12% that Paul receives in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina is an accurate representation of the ceiling of support that electoral history has shown Ron Paul to have. As always, Ron Paul can be expected to do no better than the mid teens. And if you look at Florida where he polls half of what he does in the three smaller states, you see an indication of the fact that the larger the pool of voters, the worse Paul’s numbers are.
Filed under: About the Candidates, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, Newt Gingrich, Polls, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, State & National Polls Tagged: | florida, Herman Cain, Iowa, Mitt Romney, New CNN poll, New Hampshire, Romney leads in the first four primary and caucus contests, Ron Paul, South Carolina, wordpress political blogs