Poll Has Herman Cain Doubling His Lead over Mitt Romney in Iowa

   Bookmark and Share   A Newsmax Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research poll of 507 likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers revealed some of the most interesting results we have seen in the Hawkeye state yet.  The poll was conducted November 3, 2011, about a week after the past sexual harassment allegations against Herman Cain surfaced in Politico.
According to these results, Herman Cain doubles his lead over Mitt Romney.
What is more interesting, as demonstrated in the comparison below, is the fact that with the exception of Jon Huntsman, who had no where else to go but up, and Rick Perry who who also had little room for moving down, all the other candidates have lost support since the last Newsmax poll was conducted on October 16th.

The survey consisted of 507 likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers.  Due to the fact that Iowa’s Caucuses allows people to register or switch Party registration at the individual caucuses the survey included a Party ID breakdown that was 76.5% Republican; 20.7% Independent; and 2.8% Democrat. 

The importance of Iowa in the nomination process is more important for some than it is for others.  For Mitt Romney, winning Iowa a week before his inevitable win in New Hampshire, will provide him with the type of momentum that could allow him to win South Carolina which follows New Hampshire.  If Romney wins all three of those contests, he will ultimately become the nominee and wrap up the nomination early.  But for the other candidates, a win in Iowa, will allow them to turn this race into a contest between them and Romney.  And a two man race changes everything.   With the “anyone but Romney” vote united behind one alternative to Romney, whoever that alternative becomes, will have a much better chance to defeat Romney than they do now with opposition to Romney divided up among 4 or 5 other candidates.

While the accuracy of this and any other poll must be questioned, if I read it right Romney has good reason to begin to focus a little more Iowa.  Even if he only finishes a strong second in Iowa, that will still be considered a strong showing for him and keep him very viable beyond New Hampshire.

As for Herman Cain, while his lead seems to be strengthening, I don’t see it lasting.  I believe that increased scrutiny of Cain on just the issues alone, will begin to produce a lack of confidence in his command of the issues and subsequently his qualifications to be Commander-in-Chief.  That is ironic, given the fact that Cain probably has more executive experience than Barack did when he ran in 2008.  But politics is perception and I believe that is the perception that Cain’s opponents will create and which Cain will unintentionally play in to.

That would leave a good portion of his 30% share of the vote up for grabs. The way I see it, while some like Bachmann, Santorum and Perry will share some of that support, Newt Gingrich will get the bulk of it.  If that is true, Iowa becomes a race between  him and Romney.  However; Romney has not yet decided whether or not he will wage an aggressive campaign in Iowa.  That is a decision he will have to make soon though and in my opinion, he should go for it.   Romney winning in Iowa could be a game changer that is worthy of the investment.

The Newsmax poll and its breakdown is as follows

  • Herman Cain 29.6% (26.4%)
  • Mitt Romney 14.9% (18.1%)
  • Newt Gingrich 11.7% (12.1%)
  • Ron Paul 8.7% (9.6%)
  • Michele Bachmann 7.8% (11.0%)
  • Rick Perry 5.6% (5.8%)
  • Jon Huntsman 1.9% (0.9%)
  • Someone else 5.5% (3.0%)
  • No opinion 14.2% (13.1%)

Among Men

  • Herman Cain 30.4% (32.5%)
  • Newt Gingrich 13.3% (12.8%)
  • Mitt Romney 12.6% (14.9%)
  • Ron Paul 10.6% (13.2%)
  • Michele Bachmann 10.4% (10.1%)
  • Rick Perry 4.6% (6.0%)
  • Jon Huntsman 1.7% (1.6%)
  • Someone else 8.1% (3.1%)
  • No opinion 8.4% (5.8%)

Among Women

  • Herman Cain 28.9% (20.6%)
  • Mitt Romney 17.1% (21.2%)
  • Newt Gingrich 10.2% (11.5%)
  • Ron Paul 6.9% (6.1%)
  • Rick Perry 6.5% (5.6%)
  • Michele Bachmann 5.3% (11.8%)
  • Jon Huntsman 2.1% (0.3%)
  • Someone else 3.1% (3.0%)
  • No opinion 19.8% (20.0%)

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