Is Newt Gingrich Beating Mitt Romney in Iowa?

2008 Iowa Republican Caucus county Map with th...
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Bookmark and Share   On Monday an independent which was commissioned by no candidate, political Party, or entity affiliated with any of the presidential candidates, their campaigns or partisan entities, released a one day poll which was taken among 864 voters.  The outfit which conducted the poll apparently did so for as legitimate means to promote itself.

We Ask America, is an Illinois based polling and interview service and a subsidiary of Xpress Professional Service, Inc., which was founded in 2004, and is designed to help clients shape opinion.

according to We Ask America, their one day poll of Iowa Republicans found Newt Gingrich to now be in second place, ahead of Mitt Romney and behind Herman Cain.

We Ask America released the following statement and results early on Monday;

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“GOP presidential hopeful Herman Cain certainly has had better weeks.  Just as he gained traction and broke through the Republican candidate clutter, news surfaced of a decade-old sexual harassment problem. While we still don’t know the details, Cain and his campaign staff flubbed their response badly by coming up with dizzying array of replies. Yet, Cain remains strong in national polls–perhaps an indication of the disdain many in the Right have for the national media and they way the story seemed to ooze out from another campaign, not the alleged victims.

With Iowa’s caucuses looming ever closer, we thought this would be a good time to go back into the Heartland to see if those clear-eyed, corn-fed Iowa voters reflect the national trend to embrace Cain while the facts of the accusations remain just out of reach. So, we asked 864 Iowans who told us they planned to participate in a GOP caucus this simple question:

If your Republican caucus were held today, for whom would you vote?

Here are the responses:”

Iowa: GOP Presidential

“Iowa Republicans, like the rest of the nation, seem to be standing by Cain…at least until more facts come out. We found it interesting, though, that Newt Gingrich continues to claw his way up through the pack to the point where he is now just behind frontrunner Cain. Gingrich, whose intellect is just as impressive as his ability to make you forget about it when he spews incredibly wild statements, has been methodically rising up the ranks the last few weeks by staying on message and drafting behind the frontrunner’s bumpy ride. And Mitt Romney–the candidate pundits most often mention as the ultimate winner–just can’t seem to break through the logjam.

If Cain’s problems continue to grow, we may see Gingrich surge ahead here to take the lead. But given Newt’s penchant for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, could Iowa finally give Romney the boost he’s needs to make the pundits’ consensus winner land on top?

There’s LOTS of time left here, and the jockeys are just now going to the whip. We think the smart move here is to expect the unexpected.”

“Type of Poll: Automated
Date of
Poll:
11/6/2011

Participants: 864 GOP voters
Margin of Error: ± 3.33%”

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Like any poll, the accuracy of it is questionable, and We Ask America has yet to establish a reputation for itself that is as reliable as other polling companies with longer track records. 

And there is one factor here worth pointing out.  I can’t help but question the accuracy of the representaion of the opinion of 18 t0 24 year olds.  I highly doubt that the diproportionate share of 41% of this age group is going to Michele Bachmann.  I believe such a result is a total anomaly.

It also should be noted that while We Ask America  states that Herman Cain seems to have not been effected by the sexual harassment accusation of his past, the poll was taken on Sunday, right before a fourth accuser, Sharon Bialek, went public with her story.  Bialek is the first accuser of Cain’s to reveal her identity and release the details of her allegations.  Whether this new bump in Cain’s road to the White House has an effect on Cain’s frontrunner status has yet to be seen.

That aside, the poll does help add to the common perception that Newt Gingrich beginning to emerge as a very viable alternative to Mitt Romney and the gaggle of candidates who are perceived as being more conservative than Romney. 

Meanwhile, things are looking are certainly looking  up for Newt Gingrich.  Now he just has to make sure that he doesn’t screw it up.  And by that I mean, he better have learned from his earlier mistakes and allow himself to run a relatively more traditional campaign than he has been .  One that uses traditional organizational tactics and creates a structure for Newt to operate within, because when Newt allows himself to wander off track and message, he tends to get lost.

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