The individuals behind the pro-Gingrich Super PAC known as Winning Our Future have launched their first ad in Iowa with a reported significant media buy of $250,000. The ad will run from now through Monday, January 2nd, the day before the Iowa Caucuses.
The ad offers a compelling arguments for those who are still undecided and open to Newt Gingrich’s candidacy.
It tries to play on the strong anti-establishment sentiments that are motivating much of the electorate, including those within the TEA movement.
The ad contends that given the aggressive opposition to Newt’s candidacy that establishment Republicans demonstrated, he is clearly no friend of the establishment.
The point is quite a valid one and one which Newt Gingrich could have and should have run with as soon as the inundation of negative attacks on him began. Had Newt’s campaign been able to create and focus on a single message that would have defined himself as the anti-establishment candidate, he could have maintained much of the lead that he once held. But the lack of political discipline and organization of Newt’s campaign failed to capitalize on that and lacked the ability to effectively coordinate such a theme.
Fortunately, the Super PAC, that is not affiliated with Newt’s campaign, has taken it upon themselves to try and do what Newt didn’t and while I think their new ad helps, I believe that it is too little, too late to move Newt’s numbers significantly. At this stage of the game in Iowa and New Hampshire, the real focus needs to be on undecided voters and the Get Out the Vote operation. Unfortunately, Newt lacks the organizational ability to identify those undecided voters and insure that those who are solidly behind him, show up at their precinct’s caucus and make their support official.
Compounding Newt’s problem is his loss of momentum.
If those who are supporting Gingrich come to believe that Newt has slipped so far that it is impossible for him to win, some of those supporters may not bother with the trouble of trudging out to a Caucus on a cold night and listening to an hour of speeches only to see their candidate suffer what they believe is an inevitable defeat.
So while ad likes this can’t hurt, Gingrich needs to somehow excite his supporters and win over a good portion of the very sizeable undecided vote. Then he needs to make sure they show up at their proper caucus location. However, at the moment, Newt is conceding the momentum to Ron paul and Mitt Romney and the ground game to Romney, Paul, Bachmann, and Santorum.
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