The loss of just about half of his support has led Newt to admit now that he is not likely to win the Iowa Caucus but at the same time, he believes that a likely third or even fourth place showing will still it make him possible for him to remain competitive beyond the Hawkeye State’s nomination contest.
That assessment is actually true, but short of a first or second place showing, Newt’s future viability will rely on two things. First, he must hope that if Mitt Romney wins, he does not win by very much. Then Newt must hope for a third place showing. While a fouth place finish will not derail his candidacy, it will make fundraising and the establishment of momentum quite an uphill battle as he moves ahead.
If Newt can fisinsh third or second and keep Romney from winning by a very large margin, he will remain competetive and may be come the benefiicary of an anti-Romney phenomenom.
If opposition to Romney is as strong among conservatives as many believe, victories in Iowa and New Hampshire could finally force the anti-Romney vote to charge behind one final alternative to Romney. Newt is in the best position to be that alternative candidate but anything less than a fourth place finish in Iowa will make that impossible.
Meanwhile Michele Bachmann says “We’re believing in a miracle because we know, I know, the one who gives miracles,” .
At Oral Roberts University, Bachmann’s alma mater she told ABC ;
“We’re going to see an astounding result on Tuesday night — miraculous,”
Current polling has apparently forced both Bachmann and Gingrich to be unconditionally honest about the results tomorrow, for under the circumstances, Bachmann does in fact need a miracle to pull off a finish above 6th place. For Gingrich, given the nearly 41 percent of Iowa caucus goers who remain undecided on the eve of the contest, a better than expected showing is not out of the question and as a Gingrich supporter a biased optimism has me still believing that he could surprise everyone with a third or second place finish. However, when factoring in current voter trends, Newt’s poorly run campaign and lack of an organization on the ground, along with the undeniable momentum behind Rick Santorum, logic would dictate that Newt is right. He will not win the caucus tomorrow night.
As for the other candidates, Ron Paul is seeing the helium in his balloon be overwhelmed as the weight of the oxygen in the atmosphere surrounding the reality of his reckless national security views and general unelectability brings his number back to the floor. In an early afternoon speech to supporters, Paul reminded his fans that the Caucus will involve small numbers of people but the message they send will be a big one and he urged his supporters to stick together and be sure to show up at their proper caucus locations.
Mitt Romney spent most of the day trying to remain focussed on the one person which unites him and his rivals together in their desire to defeat in November…..Barack Obama. That focus was designed to play on the perception that he is the one Republican who has the best chance of actually being the one who can defeat Obama. The hope there is that as Romney solidifies his frontrunner status in Iowa, there is a good chance that the large undecided bloc of voters will break in his favor and provide him not only with a win, but a bigger than expected win that could make it possible to wrap up the nomination sooner rather than later.
Rick Perry, the wildcard going in to tomorrow night, spent his time on the campaign trail trying to make sure that his supporters don’t jump ship and while trying to also give those caught up in the surge for Rick Santorum reason to think twice about actually casting their ballots for the wrong Rick. A new Perry ad attacks Santorum for his willingness to defend pork barrel spending.
Perry goes in to tomorrow night as the spoiler. Between his heavy ad buy and a good deal of retail political campaigning in Iowa, he remains the one candidate left who could perform better than expected and could benefit from a surge that has gone undetected by the polls. The strength of such an undetected surge will not be enough to allow Perry to finish in one the top two or three positions, but he could pull the type of numbers that may prevent people like Sanoturm and Gingrich from outpolling Ron Paul.
Filed under: General Primary News, Iowa, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul | Tagged: 2012 Presidential Election, 2012 presidential election blogs, about the candidates, about the republican presidential candidates, Anthony Del Pellegrino Kempite, Anthony Del Pellegrino Republican, Bachmann hopes for a miracle, biographies of the republican presidential candidates, bios of the Republican presidential candidates, candidates websites, election blogs, election sites, Gingrich says he will not win, GOP, gop12, Kempite Anthony Del Pellegrino, Kempite is Anthony Del Pellegrino, Kempite Republican, Kempite U4Prez, links to the Republican presidential candidates, meet the candidates, meet the republican presidential candidates, on the issues, online voter registration, Perry accuses santorum of pork spending, Perry goes after santorum, political blogs, political games, political sites, political videos, political websites, Politico, politics, Politics on Facebook Anthony Del Pellegrino, presidential debates, presidential election, presidential election links, presidential election sites, primary calendar, register as a republican voter registration forms, register to vote online, register to vote republican, Republican blogs, Republican candidates, Republican candidates bios, republican election news, Republican election sites, Republican presidential candidate on the issues, republican presidential candidate voting records, Republican Presidential Candidates, Republican presidential caucuses, republican presidential primaries, Republican presidential primary and caucus calendar, Republican voter registration, Republican websites, Rick Perry ad, ron paul speech, the candidates last minutew pitches in Iowa, the hill, The presidential election, the Republican presidential candidates, The White House, U4Prez Kempite, u4prez.com, voter registration, WH12, White House 2012, White House 2012 on Facebook, white House Facebook, White House twitter, whitehouse12, who are the candidates, who will republicans nominate for President, Who will win the presidential election, who will win the white house, Youtube, youtube republican videos, youtube videos of the republican presidential candidates |