The latest White House 2012 analysis of polls, conditions, and circumstances in individual states projects a slightly smaller Electoral College vote total for Governor Mitt Romney than he had last week, but Romney still remains above the magic number of 270, that he needs to win in the Electoral College.
This week, WH12 has seen the battleground states of Iowa and Nevada taken out of Romney’s column and designated as toss-up states. This switch has taken away 12 electoral votes from the Romney-Ryan ticket and brought them from last week’s total of 291 electoral votes , to 279 electoral votes this week. But as Mitt Romney sees 12 votes go from him to the undecided column, President Obama sees his previous Electoral College projection decrease by 10 votes as WH12 now takes Wisconsin out of the President’s column and classifies it as a toss-up state. So President Obama now finds his Electoral College vote drop from 247 last week, to 237 this week.
But the big story here ends up not being the new numbers projected in White House 2012’s analysis. The real story here is the increasing importance that these numbers places on New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa, and probably most of all… Wisconsin.
Based upon WH12’s current level of confidence in Mitt Romney having solid leads in all his base states* and strong leads in the once very competitive states of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, combined with our increasing confidence in Romney’s ability to at least squeak out a win in Ohio, what we find ourselves with here is a race that really hinges upon Romney’s need to win any combination of New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa, and or Wisconsin.
With former toss-up states like Colorado, Virginia, and Florida projected to be solidly behind Romney, as seen in the map below, all the Romney-Ryan tickets needs to secure victory is Ohio. With Romney’s base states, and locks on the battleground states of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina,and Virginia, if Romney can squeak by in Ohio, he can lose New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa, and Wisconsin and still win with 5 more electoral votes than he needs to secure the presidency. That would produce an electoral vote of 275 for Romney, to 263 for President Obama.
But Ohio is too close for comfort for Romney to count on. So the Romney-Ryan ticket must secure an optional path to victory to rely upon. Based upon the current projection which gives Romney the battlegrounds of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and New Hampshire, , if President Obama wins Ohio, the only state that Romney needs is Wisconsin. In that scenario, even if the Obama-Biden ticket won the remaining battleground states of Iowa and Nevada, Mitt would still win in the Electoral College with 271 electoral votes to Obama’s 267 electoral votes.
Without Ohio, this New Hampshire plus Wisconsin combination to victory for Romney is currently the best and most logical strategy to pursue.
In New Hampshire, the Romney-Ryan ticket is behind Obama-Biden by only approximately 1%. That is well below the 2.2% margin of error that WH12’s projection formula adds to Romney’s numbers in an attempt to compensate for the erroneous turnout models that pollsters are using in their polls. So by WH12’s standard, Romney is actually ahead of President Obama in New Hampshire by approximately 1.2%. Then there is Wisconsin.
While Real Clear Politics has Obama ahead of Romney by approximately 2.8% in Wisconsin according to White House 2012 that is only a .06% lead for the President. It is a lead so small that that it could easily by overcome. Especially if its favorite son, Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, focusses on Wisconsin during this last two weeks of the election. That is a point White House 2012 made last week in a post entitled “Checkmating Obama with Wisconsin: A Romney Win in the Badger State Dooms Obama“. Furthermore, Ryan’s focus on Wisconsin could also produce an overflow effect that impacts the close contest in Iowa which borders Wisconsin and possibly provide the margin of victory for the G.O.P. ticket there.
What this all means is that if projections that give Romney his base states and the critical battlegrounds of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, but he losses Ohio, the Romney-Ryan ticket can still win the election if they take Wisconsin and either New Hampshire, Iowa, or Nevada. But under this situation, if Romney does not win Wisconsin, Romney would have to win all three states of New Hampshire, Iowa, and Nevada.
So it becomes clear to us that while several states remain quite important in this election, if Mitt Romney’s momentum continues to hold, Wisconsin and New Hampshire may be the states that offer him the best assurance of a victory in the Electoral College. Especially if Ohio remains as tight as it currently is and goes down to the wire as a state so close that its results might not be known until days or even weeks after they are litigated in the courts. However, the outcome of such litigation would be meaningless if Romney can put New Hampshire and Wisconsin safely in his final Electoral College vote total.
In the meantime, while White House 2012’s current projection classifies 22 electoral votes as toss-ups, no matter which way they ultimately go, the most Barack Obama could get is 259 electoral votes. That would leave and Romney with at least 20 more electoral votes than Obama and nine more than Romney needs to win in the Electoral College.
Meanwhile, if Barack Obama fails to curtail the Romentum that we currently see, it won’t be long before White House 2012 finds itself issuing the very best but still realistic projected outcome that Mitt Romney could see. That projection may end up with a far more lopsided Electoral College than anyone is expecting. As seen in the map below, existing trends may soon establish a projection that looks like th e map below. It’s a Romney led Electoral College result of of 302 electoral votes to 236 electoral votes.
Right now, that is the best case scenario for Romney but if current trends to continue, it is the result we are most likely to see. It is also a result that would include something new… the splitting of Maine’s electoral vote between Romney and Obama. Maine, like Nebraska splits their electoral vote between their congressional districts. Some recent polling has shown that in Maine’s second congressional district, Romney was leading Obama 49 to 44%. If that holds up, it would be the first time Maine ever actually split it’s electoral vote. And it would also give Romney at least 1 electoral vote from a region of the country that Romney has been all but written off in.
Filed under: Electoral College Maps, General Issues & Events, Iowa, New Hampshire, State & National Polls, Strategy, Wisconsin | Tagged: Anthony Del Pellegrino, can romney win without Ohio, election map, election prediction, election predictions, election projection, electoral college map, electoral college prediction, electoral college split in Maine, how romney can without ohio, kempite, Romentum, Romney Still Winning the Election in the Electoral College But Wisconsin and New Hampshire Are Becoming Critically Important, Romney winning by a much larger margin than predicted, Romney winning in Maine's second congressional district, Romney winning the electoral college, the eve of the final presidential debate, White House 2012, Wisconsin and New Hampshire could decide the election, Wisconsin and New Hampshire in the electoral college, wordpress political blogs | Leave a comment »