Oops! I was just a little wrong !
November 4, 2012
In the final analysis of polls and circumstances in the presidential election, White House 2012 projects Mitt Romney to win in the Electoral College with 305 electoral votes to President Obama’s 233 electoral votes. Furthemore; this analysis finds that Governor Romney now has an 89% percent probability of reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, while President Obama finds himself with only an 11% chance of reaching 270 electoral votes.
While the White House 2012 analysis in the map above projects the way that each state will ultimately go by coloring states Romney will win in shades of red and pink and the states Obama will win in dark and light blue, there are really only seven states that actually can not be definitively confirmed to be in one candidate’s corner or the other’s. They are Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In the map below, those states are shaded yellow.
With those seven states in play, if all the other states go the way predicted in the map above, President Obama will have only has one path to victory and it requires winning aMll seven of those battelground states….. Michigan, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.
The problem for President Obama is that not only is the race in each of those states getting tighter, until recently, several of those states were never in doubt. Pennsylvania and Michigan had never been considered to be realistically competetive for Romney. But with less hours to go before the election, both states are now in play. This puts President Obama at great disadvantage.
For Romney, the combination of states solidly behind him and of battleground states up for grabs, leaves the Romney-Ryan ticket with seven different paths to victory.
In the closing hours of the campaign, White House 2012 is very tempted to project Pennsylvania for Mitt Romney. While several polls recently showed the race to be tied there, I am not quite convinced that Romney can ultimately pull out a win there. One reason for that is due to the Obama-Biden tickets superior GOTV operation in Pennsylvania. Having become a very competitive state for Romney only recently, the Republican presidential ticket has not organized Pennsylvania for themselves as well as President Obama has. So this will probably mean that Pennsylvania may be very close, but President Obama should still prevail. If Romney does win Pennsylvania, it is over for President Obama.
White House 2012 does not anticipate a Romney win in Michigan but here again as the close of the election approaches the race is tightening in Michigan and if the current trend for Mitt Romney is much more dramatic than it seems, Michigan could be one of those states that turns a Romney win into a landslide victory.
The formula used by White House to develop its projection compensates for what we believe is the under-counting of the Republican voter turnout that most polling outfits are using by basing this election on the 2008 turnout models.
At the moment, most polls are using some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting the responses they receive regarding the 2012 election. This is causing the Democratic vote in 2012 to be overstated. To compensate for this overweighted Democratic vote, White House 2012 has established a formula which currently adds 2.2% to Romney’s RCP average in each of the battleground states.
With an anticipated increase in accuracy of the polls, this number used to compensate for the mistakes in current polling models, has dropped from 3.7% over the course of the last month and may drop even further as we get closer to the election.