Romney Increases Lead in White House 2012 Electoral College Projection

   Bookmark and Share In what is now a verifiable trend, White House 2012’s newest Electoral College projection has increased the size of Mitt Romney’s lead in the Electoral College over President Obama for the third time in a row.  In the previous projection, after forecasting Ohio for Romney for the first time, New Hampshire and Nevada where switched from Romney to Obama.  This latest forecast now places both of those states back in Mitt Romney’s column, increasing Romney’s lead in the Electoral College by a combined total of 10 electors.  This now puts Romney’s Electoral College count at 291 to the President’s 247.

According to the White House 2012 formula, Nevada and New Hampshire are still very competitive and not solidly in Romney’s camp.  The same goes for Iowa and Ohio where WH12 considers the Romney-Ryan ticket to be currently holding a slim but still growing lead. But the most significant development in the latest forecast model is that the apparent bounce Romney received in the wake of his first debate, is now proving to be a definite trend.  More importantly, it is a trend that is revealing itself to be so pronounced that it has forced White House 2012 to now add three more states to our battleground map… Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

That is a dramatic development. Especially in the case of Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania is to Barack Obama what Ohio is to Mitt Romney.  Without Pennsylvania solidly in the Obama-Biden column, the Democrat ticket finds itself with significantly fewer paths to victory in the Electoral College.  This is a switch from the narrative that had defined Romney’s need to win Ohio.  No Republican has ever won the White House without it.   If Romney can’t win Ohio, he will find significantly fewer ways to accumulate the 270 electors needed to win.  White House 2012 has however stipulated that we are sure Romney can win without Ohio and in fact originally projected him to do so.  But recently polling and other factors have now turned the tables and are forcing the President to have to focus us on his m.

While White House 2012 still projects Pennsylvania to go for the President, if current trends continue, that can quickly change.  In the meantime White House 2012 is forced to now make Pennsylvania a battleground state and in what is turning out to be continued trend that is putting the President’s campaign in a more defensive posture when it comes to the electoral map, White House 2012 has also moved Wisconsin and Michigan to battleground status.

Of these three new battlegrounds, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are most profound.

Without them, President Obama must win Ohio and various combinations of other states that include such states as Florida, Virginia, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and/or Colorado.

While many factors will continue to change future projections, the analysis behind this forecast is most notable for the conclusion that at the moment, the Romney-Ryan ticket is turning the tables in the Electoral College and forcing the Obama-Biden ticket to take a more defensive electoral strategy.  It is forcing the Obama campaign to spend time and much needed resources and money in state’s that at this point in time, they had hoped were in the bag.  Meanwhile, the need to reinforce his standing in places like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and even Michigan, is taking time and money away from President Obama’s ability to work on winning other important states like Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa, and Colorado.

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Obama Losing Battleground States to Gingrich and Romney Gives G.O.P Big Electoral College Advantage

Bookmark and Share   In conjunction with Gallup, USA Today has issued an analysis of the 12 states considered swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

If the election becomes a closer contest than currently seen possible, these 12 states will be where the election is won or for the unlucky candidate, where it will be lost.  As noted by USA Today,  most other states and the District of Columbia are essentially in the pocket for either the Democrats or Republicans and their results are a foregone conclusion.  And according to the numbers, excluding the 12 battlegrounds, President Obama starts out with a base electoral vote of 196 votes.

On that I agree.

That same 196 number was reached in a map I prepared for White House 2012 several months ago.

On the flip side, Republicans find themselves with a base 0f 191 electoral votes.

However; the USA Today/Gallup survey finds that based upon current polling of registered voters, President Obama is trailing behind both Republican frontrunners, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. According to them, “Obama trails former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among registered voters by 5 points, 43% vs. 48%, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich by 3, 45% vs. 48%.”

This is of course good news for the G.O.P.  But in my own analysis which I prepared several months ago, the news was even better and still holds true today.

While the 12 battleground states are chosen based on voting histories, the results of the 2010 midterms and demographics, my own assessment of recent electoral data in these states, combines additional  factors such as the issues, governors, and intensity level of other statewide elections and ballot initiatives that will be influencing the 2012 election [see my map below this post] . I have concluded that the real number of battleground states in  the 2012 election is actually six, not twelve.  Even though it is true that the results of all twelve swing states are not certain, my assessment finds that , Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Virginia are far more likely to go Republican than many are willing to admit.  So while aggressive campaigns will be waged in those states, at least for the first few months of the general election campaign, the hardest fought campaigns will be waged in  Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and  Wisconsin

Based on my numbers, while President Obama maintains his locked in electoral vote of 196, Republicans start out with a base electoral vote of 264,  just six electoral votes shy of the 270 needed to be elected President.

That leaves Democrats and President Obama, with their backs against the wall.

With their base of 196 electoral votes, in my assessment, they have only 1 way to win. They would have to win all six of the real battleground states that I see the election coming down to.  If President Obama ran the board and picked up all 6 of these major battleground states, he would wind up with a final electoral count of 274, ten more than Republicans.

Republicans on the other hand, find themselves with five different available paths to victory.  All that would be required to put them over the top is a win in any one of the states of Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.  A win in New Mexico would leave Republicans one electoral vote short.  So if they do happen to take New Mexico, they will still need one of the other five swing states.

Interestingly, if the G.O.P. wins New Mexico and President Obama wins the remaining states of Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and  Wisconsin, there would be a 269 to 269 tie in the electoral college.  God help us if that happens.  While the process for breaking that tie is clearly defined, the projected makeup of the newly elected Congress, the body for which responsibility of electing the President would fall to, would likely make it a long, drawn out, and very messy process.  But White House 2012 will get in to that a later date.

For now, it is safe to say, that at the moment, whoever the G.O.P. nominates will have a much better chance to win in 2012 than some suspect. Whether you go by my six major battleground state analysis or  the USA Today/Gallup analysis of their 12 swing state study, the current atmosphere leans towards a Republican presidential victory in 2012.  But that is how it looks today.  tomorrow may be quite different.  Even if I am correct and the election really comes down to only  Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and  Wisconsin, President Obama will have the first billion dollar presidential campaign in history and that kind of money invested in to six states, could make it quite hard for Republicans to win any one them.  At least that is what President Obama and his fellow liberals hope.

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