Romney Holds Lead In Electoral College as Ohio Now Becomes Do or Die for the President

New analysis gives Romney a 53% chance to win while President Obama finds himself with a 44% chance to win. Meanwhile the newest analysis also shows that Ohio is do or die for the President while Wisconsin becomes a possible make or break state for Mitt Romney

White House 2012’s newest analysis of data, polls, trends, and circumstances, nationally and on the ground in individual states, continues to project Mitt Romney the winner of the presidential election.  While the closeness of the race in several states continues to make it impossible to say with absolute certainty that Romney will win the Electoral College vote, White House 2012’s analysis does currently project that at the very least, Romney will receive 285 electoral votes.  That is 15 more electors than he needs to defeat President Barack Obama who according to White House 2012’s prediction will walk away from Election Day with 253 electoral votes.

The states that are too close for comfort and continue to be responsible for  the uncertainty of the results in the Electoral College are, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

Bookmark and Share Of these states, White House 2012 is currently projecting New Hampshire, Ohio, and Iowa to go to Mitt Romney, with President Obama taking Nevada and Wisconsin.  All other states are solidly behind one or the other candidate.  But the most dramatic conclusion gleamed from the information found in the analysis used to make this recent projection, is that if you consider Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Wisconsin to be tossups, President Obama is left with 237 electoral votes and Romney holds 257 electoral votes.  This means that from among the remaining 5 tossup states the President has only three possible paths to victory.   Romney on the other hand has 5 possible paths to victory.

Making matters worse for the President is that this latest WH12 analysis sees a sharp turning of the tables on him.  Up till now, the narrative had been that Mitt Romney can’t win without Ohio.  This newest analysis shows just the opposite.

For President Obama, while he has three paths to victory… two less than Romney, each of one them requires that to win the election, the President must win Ohio.

For Mitt Romney, of the five routes to victory available to him, only one of them requires that he wins Ohio, and as seen in the graphic below, that path is the one which he needs only if he losses each of the other remaining tossup states.

Ultimately this means that the odds are now clearly in favor of Mitt Romney winning the election, hence the current White House 2012 electoral projection.  Based upon the winning combinations available to Obama and Romney, the President has a 44% chance of winning and Mitt Romney has a 53% chance of winning.  With less than two weeks to go before the election is held, this 9% upper hand held by Mitt Romney puts the Governor in a far better position than the President.  That is especially true given the fact that the momentum continues to be behind the Romney-Ryan ticket, not the Obama-Biden ticket.

Ohio Is Do or Die for the President

White House 2012 adds 2.2% to Mitt Romney’s final total in the Real Clear Politics average of polls.  This is a figure intended to compensate for the use of 2008 turnout models that are being used in establishing current poll results.  WH12’s formulas believes these models are under-counting Republican turnout by as much as 2.2%, hence the 2.2% added to Romney’s numbers that are ultimately figured in to White House 2012’s analysis.  Currently in Ohio, the Real Clear Politics average has President Obama ahead of Mitt Romney by 2.1%. According to the WH12 formula, that means Romney is a head by a mere .01%, far too close for comfort for either candidate.  But the good news for Romney here is that the WH12 analyses now finds that whereas Ohio was once considered a must win for Romney, it is now just the opposite.  President Obama is the one who now can’t win reelection without Ohio.

Wisconsin could be make or break for Romney

While Romney now can easily win the White House without Ohio, if he doesn’t take Ohio, Wisconsin becomes the state he really needs to ensure victory.  Of the 5 paths to victory available to Mitt Romney, 3 include winning Wisconsin.  Only two of the available paths do not require Badger State victory.   So while the best way to ensure Romney of winning the election is by taking Ohio, if he can pull that off, a win in Wisconsin and either Iowa, New Hampshire, or Colorado will be enough to put Romney over the top.  If Ohio is not in the picture for Romney without Wisconsin, Romney must run the table on Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada and win all three of them.

That is possible but it points to the fact that strategically, Mitt Romney should really drop Paul Ryan in Wisconsin and have him campaign in every town, of every county in the state and use his favorite son status to deliver Wisconsin and provide the cushion the Romney-Ryan tickets needs in the Electoral College.

3% Chance of a tie in the Electoral College

Having Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin as tossup states leaves us with numeric equations that provides a 3% chance of their being a tie in the Electoral College

If this Electoral College result were to come to fruition, although there is truly no guarantee, Mitt Romney would most likely win the election in the House of Representatives where according to the constitution, in the case of a tie in the Electoral College, the election for President would ultimately go.  The House is largely expected to remain controlled by a majority of Republicans .  However, the election for Vice President is held in the Senate where Democrats are control.  At the moment, there is a good chance that Republicans can win at least a one seat majority in the Senate.  If that is so, a republican controlled Senate will elect Paul Ryan Vice President.  If Republicans fail to take control of the Senate, it is not likely but quite possible that Democrats will elect Joe Biden Vice President.

Potential for a Romney Landslide

While WH12’s currently projects Romney to win 285 electoral votes, with the closenes of the race in the five tossups states spoken about in the analusis and the momentum that is behind Romney, White House 2012 is looking at the potential for Romney to pull off a landslide win in the Electoral College that will rival the size of Bill Clinton’s lopsided total in the 1992 election.   In that matchup, Clinton won 370 electoral votes to Bush’s 168.  At the moment, WH12 to sees evidence that Romney may be on his way to a final 302 electoral votes to the President’s 236.

That includes a split in Maine’s electoral vote where some polls show Romney winning the 2nd Congressional District.  In Maine, Elecotrs are awarded by congressional districts, not on a statewide basis.

Furthermore; Wh12 sees the putside chance for Michigan to go to Romney.  That would bring his total Electoral College count to 318.

Bookmark and Share

Checkmating Obama with Wisconsin: A Romney Win in the Badger State Dooms Obama

   Bookmark and Share  Mitt Romney’s continued rise in the polls has created a new narrative that continues to offer an almost infinitesimal number of possible outcomes in the Electoral College but at the same time it is increasing the number of realistic scenarios in which Romney can win and the President can lose .  Such is the reality of a race which since the first presidential debate some two weeks ago, has seen Mitt Romney turn the tables on President Obama in several key battleground states… specifically Virginia, Florida, and Ohio.  With Romney now practically even with or ahead of Obama in those states, the Romney-Ryan ticket has momentum behind them and is quickly changing electoral the game board by  forcing the Obama-Biden ticket to play catch-up for the first time in this general election.

These developments are probably most pronounced in two states which have up till now been considered solid Obama states…  Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In the case of Pennsylvania no Democrat has won the White House without it since 1948 when the Keystone State supported Republican New York Governor Thomas Dewey over President Harry Truman.  In many ways it has become for Democrats what Ohio is for a Republicans. But in recent days, Romney has significantly reduced the size of the President’s lead in Pennsylvania practically in a half.   It is a trend that the Obama-Biden campaign cannot ignore, especially since Mitt romney has not yet been aggressively campaiging for Pennsylvania or spending much money in the state.

Without Pennsylvania, assuming that Romney has Virginia and Florida, an assumption that is increasingly likely, President Obama must win the remaining battleground states of Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  That is a tall order given that the White House 2012 analysis currently projects five of those seven states to be going for the Romney-Ryan ticket.

Making matters worse for the President is the fact that one of those states that the Obama-Biden campaign must win if he loses Pennsylvania, is Wisconsin, a state that he is finding even more trouble in than he is finding in Pennsylvania.

Wisconsin has been trending Republican at least since 2010 when the state elected a Republican Governor and rejected liberal icon Russ Feingold by electing a Republican T.E.A movement-backed to replace Feingold in the U.S. Senate.  Then, earlier this year,  Wisconsin became ground zero in a recent union-based recall election that pitted the entitlement mentality of the left against the fiscal responsibility mentality of the right.  In that recall election, the left lost by an even bigger even margins than they did in 2010.

It is along with this troublesome backdrop that President Obama now finds his once comfortable lead in the Badger state slipping to an uncomfortable 2.0% lead.  Add to that the fact that Romney’s running mate hails from Wisconsin and that Romney is seeing his numbers rising across the board in every state and among most all voting blocs, including independents, women and Hispanics, and what you have is an Obama-Biden reelection campaign that is struggling to remain competitive in the Electoral College.

But let us not get ahead of ourselves.  While Romney is certainly currently riding a mild surge in polls, it is no tidal wave and at the moment short of that tidal, Pennsylvania is still likely to go blue for the President.  And while Virginia and Florida are still likely to go for Romney, the Obama-Biden ticket has a good chance of taking Ohio.  A win there by the President would leave Romney with only 11 paths to victory… 11 very viable and realistic paths.  On the flip side, a loss by the President in Pennsylvania, leaves him with approximately half as many realistic paths to victory.  Some of those paths include winning a combination of Virginia, Florida, and or Ohio with a mix of other states that include Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, and New Hampshire.  But  most important here is that without Ohio, Virginia and Florida,  every possible path to the 270 Electoral College votes that the President needs to wins, includes both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

What All Means;

For President Obama this means he has less and less breathing room in these last three weeks of the campaign.   It means that states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin which he is still leading in, will require him to divert much needed time, money, and resources  away from states like Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, where a win by the President in any one of those states would be a significant blow to Romney.

For Governor Romney this means, the mountain before him remains treacherous, but if he can maintain his current pace the top of the mountain, the top is certainly within his reach.  So Romney must continue to wage an extremely successful campaign in Florida, Virginia, Ohio.  But the latest numbers indicate that Romney should also look at Pennsylvania where even though he is not likely to win, if he invests time and money there, he will forced to President Obama to reroute resources to from Ohio and Florida in an attempt to keep Pennsylvania blue.   But at the same time Romney must also now begin to really target Wisconsin.  Recent history supports facts that show the state is open to the fiscal responsibility message of the G.O.P. and Mitt Romney.  And with Wisconsin being a state that Paul Ryan is from and still very popular in, combined with the polls showing that the race is already tight there, Wisconsin is a prime state for the Romney-Ryan ticket to pick off from the President.  It is also a state that would make it nearly impossible for the President to win the election without.

So for Mitt Romney, this means it’s time to send Paul Ryan home.  Let Paul Ryan do a non-stop tour of every county and town in Wisconsin.  If Romney can keep up his own end of the deal in Virginia and Florida, by denying the Obama-Biden ticket a win Wisconsin, Romney could win the election just by taking a combination of Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada.  And that is without winning Ohio.  With Wisconsin painted red, a win in Ohio would put Mitt Romney over the top even if he lost Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.

Bookmark and Share

Suffolk Stops Polling Presidential Race in Fl, NC and VA. Says Romney Is Certain to Win All 3

 Bookmark and Share   Since 2002, the Suffolk University Political Research Center has conducted polls and survey analyses with a 96% record of accuracy in predicting outcomes in Massachusetts, key battleground states, and nationally.  As such, Suffolk is considered far more reliable than not. So it should come as a surprise to those who believe that Barack Obama will defeat Mitt Romney handily when a reliable polling outfit like Suffolk announces that it is so clear to them that Romney has locked up wins in three key battleground states so securely that they are discontinuing any future polling of the presidential election in those states.

Pollster David Paleologos, the Director of the Suffolk University Research Center recently declared to Bill O’Reilly on his Fox News show “The Factor”, that his organization will not be taking anymore polls of the presidential election in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia.  According to Paleologos, a look at the existing polling data in those states indicates overwhelming evidence of the depth of Romney’s support in those states as compared to the president.  Paleologos adds, “we’ve colored those states red.” (See the video below)

This is an extraordinarily significant development in the race for President. Polling is a lucrative business and a decision such as the one Suffolk has made here would not have been made unless they were absolutely certain with of the results they now predict.  It signals the beginning of what White House 2012 has predicted to be Romney’s winning of the presidential election in the Electoral College by a much larger than margin than many believe possible.  Currently White House 2012 has Governor Romney defeating President Obama by 281 electoral votes to 257, but with with a stated expectation of soon putting New Hampshire and Nevada in Romney’s column, White House 2012 is sure that that Romney’s electoral vote count is on the rise.

If it is indeed true that Mitt Romney has a lock on Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, President Obama finds himself facing an election that is totally different from the one he was running prior to last week’s presidential debate.  If those three states are solid for Romney, the number of paths that are available for the President to piece together the 270 electoral votes he needs in order to win reelection, are greatly reduced and it makes his need to deny Romney a win in Ohio almost essential to his reelection effort.  Meanwhile multiple polls from a range of independent survey outfits are now showing Mitt Romney to either be ahead of the President in Ohio or nearly tied with him.  These polls also show Romney pulling ahead in other battleground states and nationally.

But the decision by Suffolk to stop polling the presidential race in Fl, NC and Va, is a surefire sign that the race is over for President Obama in those states.  Pretty soon his own internal polls will probably make that inconvenient truth evident to his own campaign.  We will come to realize when they have reached that same conclusion as we soon begin to notice a lack of visits by the President to Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia and a noticeably larger amount of his time spent in Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and a few states that up to now, the President was so far ahead in that he did not to waste his time visiting.  Those states include Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, three states which the Romney-Ryan ticket is cutting in to the Obama-Biden tickets once double digit leads.

As early as two weeks ago, an analysis of polls and other factors by White House 2012 had reached almost the same conclusion that Suffolk did about Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.   In fact, in White House 2012’s Electoral College Projection we stated that we no longer consider North Carolina a battleground state.  As for Florida and Virginia, White House 2012 has projected them to be red for Romney but we have not yet been confident enough to suggest that President Obama will at some point become more competitive in those two states again.  So far though, Suffolk’s polls and decision are o confirm that White House 2012 is doing a good job at analyzing the electorate.  In fact it just so happens that White House 2012 and Suffolk are independently in agreement with one another.

Bookmark and Share

New White House 2012 Projection Has Romney Winning By 24 Electoral Votes

  Bookmark and Share With 29 days remaining in the race for President, White House 2012’s latest analysis of polls, circumstances, and conditions, concludes that there is a swing towards Mitt Romney in the Electoral College that is so pronounced that the Romney-Ryan ticket has increased its lead over the Obama-Biden ticket by at least 24 electoral votes.  The last White House 2012 projection had Mitt Romney winning 273 electoral votes to the presidents 265 electoral votes.  Today Romney stands at 281 electoral votes to 257 for the President.

For the first time, the latest projection gives Romney the all important state of Ohio, which up to now has been written off by White House 2012 as an almost certain win for President Obama. However, small shifts which have revealed themselves in most of the polls figured in to the Real Clear Politics average of polls since Romney’ stellar debate performance last Wednesday, now indicate that if the numbers hold up, Romney will win Ohio, a change that significantly increases the number of ways that Romney can reach the magic number of 270 that is needed to win the presidential race in the electoral college.

While Romney seems to be gaining momentum, it is too early to call it a steady trend, especially given the fact that while Romney has picked up Ohio in the newest projection, New Hampshire and Nevada which Romney did have in column last week, have flipped back to President Obama today.  The good news is that combined, New Hampshire and Nevada have a total of only 10 electoral votes while by itself Ohio has a total of 18 electoral votes.  So even if Romney did lose Nevada and New Hampshire, he stands on better ground after picking up the Buckeye State.  However; it is important to note that White House 2012 is being very conservative by flipping New Hampshire and Nevada to the Obama-Biden ticket.  While the RCP average has pushed the President’s lead in those two states to be in excess of the 3.7% margin of error which we give to Mitt Romney to compensate for each polls poor judgment in the use the 2008 turnout models, other factors prove to be working in Mitt Romney’s favor and allow us to give the President those states by only the slimmest of margins. So both New Hampshire and Nevada are now only barely light blue for the President and they could easily turn pink for Romney at a moment’s notice.

While most states are clearly leaning towards one candidate or the other, White House 2012 is currently only considering there to be seven battleground states.  They are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia.  Of those states, White House 2012 currently projects the following outcomes;

White House 2012 does see the potential for Romney to become much more competitive in Wisconsin, New Mexico, and possibly Michigan but for now, we do not consider them to be battleground states.

Other Favorable Indicators for Romney

As the race continues to evolve, this projection will change, however; at the moment the race is shaping up to be one that is moving in Mitt Romney’s direction.

For instance, it is with good reason that we continue to forecast Romney victories in the critical states of Florida and Virginia.

While some polls show small Romney leads in those states, most all other polls show Romney to have at least closed the small previous gap that existed between him and the President by as much as half or more.  For example, the latest number from PPP, a Democrat leaning polling outfit, shows that in Virginia, Obama’s lead has shrunk from +5  to +3.  While that Obama lead might not seem like good news for Romney, it is actually very good news when you consider the fact that by using the same turnout model from 2008, the PPP sampling finds this smaller Obama lead even after still giving Democrats a +6 advantage over Republicans.

Furthermore; it is that same Democrat advantage that polls are giving to the President which we see in other states such as Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire and all the other critical swing states.  Yet despite this Democrat advantage, Romney is gaining on the President.  So much so that WH12 sees evidence that indicates the Romney-Ryan ticket will probably not only win the election, they will probably win it by an even wider margin than anyone thinks possible.

Adding to this positive direction for Romney are indications that his own internal polling in at least two states. Currently, those internal polls are said to show Virginia and Ohio show him beating Obama by as much as 3.0% and 4.5%, respectively.

Conclusion;

The recent questionable jobs report has provided a slight spike in consumer confidence but it has not yet translated in to a bounce for the President.  At the same time, President Obama’s approval ratings continue to remain at or below 50%, a position not conducive for reelection of an incumbent President. 

Meanwhile, after his initial debate performance Mitt Romney has established himself as a real threat to the reelection of President Obama.  For the first time since their conventions, Romney is seeing evidence of his base becoming excited with his candidacy and there are signs that undecided voters are moving in his direction.  But Republicans must be careful to not consider this a trend until and unless future polls over the course of the next week show these recent numbers to still be moving in the right direction.  However; at the moment the Romney-Ryan ticket seems to have blocked President Obama’s own forward momentum in the polls and at the same time has finally gotten his campaign moving at pace that could turn the tables on the Obama-Biden and make them the ones with fewer paths to victory.  But to do that, Romney must be sure to keep the momentum moving in the right direction and at the right pace.  To do that, Romney must avoid any stumbles on the campaign trail and he must make sure that an endless repetitive stream of his well crafted 30 second ads are driving home his message and allowing it to sink in among the voters who have a new found respect for Romney after his first debate and are now more receptive to his message than they have been at any other point in this election.

The Projection Formula

The White House 2012 projection takes the Real Clear Politics average of polls and compensates for the outdated 2008 turnout models being used in each in poll by compensating for the under-counting of Republican turnout by adding to Romney’s total, the 3.7% average margin of error in the seven key swing states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia.  Then along with a dose of personal political instinct, our projection incorporates other factors in to the equation such as the unemployment rates of individual states and the organizational strength of each state’s Party. 

Bookmark and Share

Internal Polls Have Romney Ahead in at Least 2 Pivotal Swing States

  Bookmark and Share   According to Breitbat editor Mike Flynn, the Romney campaign has internal polls that now show the Romney-Ryan ticket ahead of President Obama in two important battleground states… Ohio and New Hampshire.  According to two tweets posted by Flynn  on his Twitter feed, Romney’s internal polls have him beating the President in New Hampshire by 3.0%, and an almost unimaginably wider margin of 4.5% in Ohio.

If these numbers are true, this would suggest that my own estimation of a Romney victory that will be much bigger than most people think possible, could be shaping up.   Especially if Mitt Romney is ahead in Ohio.

While I have sensed that this race is not quite as close as most polls indicate, my inability to totally discount the preponderance of public polling numbers that are out there has been leading me to conclude that in 2012, the G.O.P. may win the White House without Ohio for the first time in history. Part of the reason for that opinion has been due to the available polling data.  The other part is my knowing that President Obama is going to do everything possible to win the Buckeye State for himself.  Doing so would leave Romney with significantly fewer paths to victory.  But aggressive campaigning by Romney in several other key states, specifically Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, Nevada and of course Virginia and Florida, has led me to conclude that while Team Romney has by no means written off Ohio, they are actively working on Plan B…. the plan to win the election without Ohio if necessary.

But if these leaked internal polls are accurate, Mitt Romney is currently on his way to being able to carry out his preferred plan of winning the election with Ohio and the way I see it, if he can do that, Americans will be stunned to find out on November 7th that Romney beat President Obama by far more than anyone predicted.

If the Romney-Ryan ticket can win Ohio, that bodes quite well for additional victories in swing states like Florida, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire.  Given the make-up of Ohio, it is very good bellwether of the sentiments that exist in those aforementioned states.  Furthermore, a lead in Ohio would also indicates that Nevada is quite winnable.  Even more stunning is that it could be a sign that Romney is in contention for wins in other states like Wisconsin, which according to most polls is currently slipping away from the G.O.P. presidential ticket.  No matter what though, a lead in Ohio would significantly turn the tables on the Obama-Biden ticket by suddenly making them the ticket with fewer paths available to them to reach the magic number of 270 in the Electoral College.

Unfortunately for Romney backers, the reliability of this second and now third-hand information is not enough for us to hang our hats on yet.

While all campaigns conduct internal polls, they do not spend much time publicly talking about them or releasing the data and information contained in them.  By law, if a campaign releases any numbers from their internal polls, they must release the entire poll.  However, as is always the case with politics, campaigns can and do find ways to see that certain tib-bits somehow leak out for public consumption without being caught.  In this case,  no one can be sure of where or how Mike Flynn got hold of these numbers.  But if he did somehow get a look at the Romney campaign’s actual internal poll numbers for Ohio and New Hampshire, the news contained in his two tweets changes the narrative of this election by turning President in to the underdog in the race.

If the numbers Flynn released are actually from the Romney campaign’s internal polls, you can rest assured that they are accurate.  Mainly because of Neil Newhouse, the man who put those numbers together.

Neil Newhouse is Romney’s chief pollster and globally, one of the best pollsters around.   He is a co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies, a national political and public affairs survey research firm that has been described as “the leading Republican polling company” in the country and in 2011 he was named “Pollster of the Year” by the American Association of Political Consultants for his work on Scott Brown’s winning Senate campaign in Massachusetts.

At Public Opinion Strategies, Newhouse developed a culture and approach to winning that is practically unsurpassed as he successfully helped political candidates win tough campaigns and scored hard-fought successes in the public affairs arena for some of America’s leading corporations and associations.  Through his polling efforts Newhouse has been a master at taking accurate polls and using the information derived from them to successfully tailor the type of winning messages that have allowed his candidates to get elected.  So if Neil Newhouse’s polling does actually have Romney up by as much as 3.0% in New Hampshire and 4.5% in Ohio, chances are that the vast majority of public polls which are basing their models on outdated 2008 turnout models, are offering us a very misleading perception of just how tight the election will actually be.

Bookmark and Share

The Herd: A Look at The Republican Vice Presidential Candidates. Florida Governor Jeb Bush

Bookmark and Share   The Herd is a special White House 2012 series covering the obvious and not so obvious potential choices to be selected as Mitt Romney’s vice presidential running mate on the Republican presidential ticket.  Each day, White House 2012 will introduce you to one the many Republicans which we believe will be at least considered for for the vice presidency by the now inevitable presidential nominee, Mitt Romney.

In addition to a biographical information and a brief assessement of each potential nominee and their chances of being selected by Mitt Romney, White House 2012′s coverage also includes each potential nominee’s voting records, as well as a listing of their public statements and links to their web sites.

Today White House 2012 takes a look at the former Governor of Florida, Jeb Bush 

Born: February 11, 1953 (age 57), Midland, Texas

Spouse(s): Columba Bush

Children : George Prescott, Noelle Bush and John Ellis Bush, Jr

Residence : Coral Gables, Florida

Alma mater: University of Texas

Profession: Banker, Realtor

Religion: Roman Catholic

(Click here for Jeb’s White House 2012 page)

I know, I know, not another Bush.  But you know what?  Get over it.  Take a look at the record, not the name.  If we are so prejudiced that we can’t get over a name, then we have much bigger problems than we realize.  Besides, we elected a man whose middle name is Hussein, for Christ’s sake.  So you can live with the name Bush again.  And if you are capable of getting past the name, you will see that Jeb is probably the most truly conservative of all the Bushes to come before him and of all the politicians out there today who claim to be conservative.

Beyond having an exceptional record during his two terms as Governor Florida, Jeb is experienced, innovative, articulate, steady handed and politically savvy.  And he would be sure to deliver Florida to the Republican side of the electoral ledger.  That in and of itself is enough to get him a spot on someone’s ticket.

Historically, the choice of a running mate has done little to affect the results of a presidential election.  The last time it did make a difference was 52 years ago, when then Massachusetts Senator John F. Kennedy selected Texas Senator Lyndon Baines Johnson to be his vice presidential running mate.  That decision helped to assure that the close election of 1960 (Kennedy defeated Nixon by 0.16% of the popular vote), would swing to Kennedy in the Electoral College where the final 303 to 219 electoral vote count was the closest since 1916.

It is also worth remembering that the last time the state which a vice presidential running mate came from could have made a big difference was in the year 2000 when the U.S. Supreme Court overruled the Florida Supreme Court and order the Democrat led  attempts to reinterpret voter intent in only those counties which Al Gore won be stopped.  In that election, had one of Florida’s favorite sons, Senator Connie Mack, accepted the offer from Dick Cheney to be George W. Bush’s vice presidential running mate, the results in Florida would not have been quite as close as they were, and the nation would have been spared the more than one month long anguish and uncertainty of who the next President was going to be.

Data indicates that the selection of a Vice President usually affects most elections by one percent or less, or by the most, two percent nationally.  But the same data shows that the selection of a V.P.  candidate can affect the vote in the home state of the chosen vice presidential candidate by as much as four percent.  Given these facts and the very likely possibility for this election to be close, at least in the Electoral College, a swing of as much as four percent in a battleground state like Florida, could make all the difference between winning and losing in the Electoral College. Which is why Jeb Bush must be considered as very real potential running mate for Mitt Romney.

If Marco Rubio, the perceived favorite of most Republicans, holds true to his word and refuses to accept any nomination for Vice President in 2012, Jeb Bush will be the only figure from Florida whose “favorite son” status is so powerful that he could change that state’s popular vote so significantly that it could swing it and the entire election to Romney.  Therefore, when it comes to Jeb being on the ticket, never say never.

That stated,  not only do I believe that Jeb has no deep desire to be Vice President or President, at least not in 2012, I also believe he is more likely to become the next Secretary of Education than he is to become the next Vice President.

Jeb’s work on behalf of education is unprecedented.  He has delivered innovation and exceptionalism to educating our children and the next generation of Americans to enter the American workforce.  And if the next President does not intend to abolish the Department of Education, Jeb Bush will do the job justice.   Jeb probably won’t run for President or accept the vice presidency until he has fulfilled his role as Educator-in-Chief.

Pros:

  • Bush can go a long way in helping to carry Florida, a major swing state that the G.O.P. can not afford to lose
  • Jeb Bush’s presence on the ticket would help energize a large segment of conservatives who are unenthusiastic with Romney
  • Bush has been vetted far more than most other candidates
  • Has executive political experience
  • Is articulate, passionate, and a seasoned campaigner and vote getter
  • Is a proven vote getter among Hispanics
  • Will be a prolific fund raiser for the presidential ticket
  • His record on economic issues as Governor of Florida will allow a Romney-Bush ticket to espouse the the type of masterful economic stewardship for the nation that Bush practiced in the Sunshine State.

Cons:

  • His last name

Overall Assessment:

Despite his last name, Jeb Bush is probably one of the finest choices there is but since politics is more perception than  reality, Jeb’s last name will probably preclude him from being selected even though his record and personal political history would make him the strongest choice that Romney could make for Vice President.  Unfortunately, the Bush name is something that Republicans are too afraid of having to contend with so Jeb is most likely not the one to expect to see running in November. However, in 2012, the selection of a Vice President and where that vice presidential choice comes from, could effect the election far more than it has in the past and if it is determined that winning Florida is the key to winning the election and that the only way to win it is by having a favorite son of the state on the ticket, then Jeb is a very real option.  Especially if Marco Rubio refuses to accept the nomination.

Ultimately I do not believe that any Republican is brave enough to pick Jeb Bush because of their fear that the Bush name will hurt them.  And that is shame.  But while I am pretty sure Jeb Bush won’t be on the Republican ticket in November, I am quite certain he will be in the cabinet of the next Administration.  Most likely as Secretary of Education.

Photobucket

Jeb Bush on The Issues

International Issues Domestic Issues Economic Issues Social Issues
Foreign Policy Gun Control Budget & Economy Education
Homeland Security Crime Government Reform  Civil Rights
War & Peace Drugs Tax Reform Abortion
Free Trade Health Care Social Security Families & Children
Immigration Technology Corporations Welfare & Poverty
Energy & Oil Environment Jobs Principles & Values

State By State Approval Ratings Spell Disaster For Obama Relection Bid

Bookmark and Share   Gallup recently released their annual state-by-state presidential approval numbers and the results paint several pretty dismal pictures for the President, pictures that reflects the overall dismal economic condition that that the nation is in.
According to the analysis the President received a plurality of approval  from residents of only the District of Columbia and 10 states, while his job approval was below 50% in the remaining forty states.   Furthermore; in a majority of them, his approval was well below 45%.

This analysis is particularly troublesome given that while the President’s job approval rating nationally is below the 50% mark, the President’s reelection rests not within the national opinion as much as it does within the collective electoral college results that arrived at through the opinions reflected in each individual state.  And while a Real Clear Politics average of national polls put the Presidents approval rating at 46.5% and his disapproval rating is at 47.9%, what the Gallup state-by-state analysis shows is that the President’s challenge is actually tougher than the national polls indicate.

Gallup points out that President Obama received a 44% job approval rating in his third year in office, which is down from 47% in his second year. If that trend were to continue, Ron Paul could be nominated by the G.O.P. and probably defeat President Obama handily.  But reality dictates that Ron Paul will never see the light of day as a Republican presidential nominee, and that President Obama’s numbers are not likely to trend downward as he embarks upon a billion dollar campaign that will seek to rehabilitate his own image while eviscerating the image of his Republican opponent.

However, if the President finds his reelection effort failing to reverse the trend of his existing numbers and change the opinions that voters have of him now, he is doomed. Based upon the current trend,  If the President were to only carry those states in the Gallup poll which he he had a net positive approval rating in 2011, he  would lose the 2012 election  with 215 electoral votes, to the Republican nominee’s 323 electoral votes.

A White House 2012 breakdown of the Gallup study demonstrates how daunting a challenge lies ahead for President Obama.

Based upon his current state-by-state approval ratings, if we give President Obama each state where his rating is at 50% or above, he would lose the election by winning 159 electoral college votes from D.C., California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont.  The Republican nominee would receive 379 electoral votes, 109 more than needed.

But White House 2012 tried to be a bit more realistic and decided to breakdown these numbers down by giving President Obama the benefit of the doubt by assuming he can turn his numbers around in all those states where his approval was as low as 45%.

That was not only generous, it was also responsible for a fairly more accurate picture of things.

Regardless of the numbers, there are some states that will not likely vote Republican regardless of how bad a job President Obama is doing or who the Republican presidential nominee is.  States like Washington and Oregon on the West Coast will probably remain dark blue and the president may easily turn around his downward trending approval ratings among the liberal sympathisers of those states. That accounts for 19 more electoral votes.  Then you can easily see the President take Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan in the Midwest.  That’s 36 more electoral votes. Then because his numbers are barely above 45% in Iowa, let’s say he can pull off some magic there, a state which he won in 2008.  That’s 6 more. Then on the East Coast, you’ll find Maine, and Rhode Island remaining true blue.  That’s another 8 electoral votes.  And throw in Pennsylvania too if for no other than reason than the Southeast portion of the state may still be strongly under the President’s spell.  That’s 20 more for a total shift of 89 electoral votes which gives President Obama 248 to the G.O.P.’s 290, a figure that still gives the win to the Republican nominee with 20 more electoral votes than needed.

With 29 electoral votes, this would make Florida the key to the President’s winning reelection.  Without it he needs Ohio with 18 electoral votes and at least one of the following other states; Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, or North Carolina.

Those four states are not goof for him right now, but he has better numbers in  them than he does in other states like New Hampshire or Arizona.

But even these state’s will be hard for Obama.  Currently his job approval is 40.4% in Colorado, 41.7% in New Mexico, 41.3% in  Nevada, and 43.7% in North Carolina.  Meanwhile his approval numbers in Florida and Ohio are at 43.6% and 42.1% respectively.

While turning these numbers around will not be impossible in the course of the lifetime that politically speaking, exists between now and November, doing so will be quite a dramatic achievement.  One that may require not just a well run campaign on the President’s part, but also a badly managed campaign on the part of whoever his Republican opponent is.

On a sidenote, I can not figure out for the life of me how the President’s job approval rating went up in a place like Wyoming.  It went up slightly in Connecticut and Maine, but those two states are known for the lunacy of their liberalism and in many cases their socialism.  But Wyoming?

As for the final outcome, no one can honestly say they know how the election will end.  But based upon a bit of instinct, the issues that will play out during the campaign, and the existing numbers, I offer my own following projections.

 It should be noted that if this scenario does come to fruition, there is the potential for an Electoral College crisis, for it offers the possibility of a tie in the Electoral College:

However I do not suspect that such a tie will occur because of the battleground states that I believe this will come down to, I foresee Republicans winning Pennsylvania, Colorado, and New Mexico.

Bookmark and Share
%d bloggers like this: