Former Iowa Caucus Winner Predicts Romney to be the Next Winner in Iowa

Bookmark and Share  In an appearance on Fox News Sunday, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee predicted that Mitt Romney will win the Iowa caucuses even though he has not spent a great deal of time or money in the state.

Huckabee, the surprise winner over Romney in the 2008 Iowa Republican Caucuses believes that this will be due, in large part to the fact that Iowa’s evangelical voters have not rallied around any one particular conservative candidate.

But Huckabee attaches a stipulation to his prediction. He uses weather as a reason for the possibility of a Ron Paul win Iowa. According to the former Governor turned Fox News host;

“If the weather is good, Mitt Romney is in better shape. If the weather is bad and it’s real tough to get out, Ron Paul would win.”

Huckabee claims;

“Ron Paul has an exceptional organization there. And it very well could be that he could end up winning because of the extraordinary devotion of his followers,”

He added;

“He’s got people that would walk over broken glass for him and they’d break the glass just to be able to say they did it. So, watch out for Ron Paul.”

While it is true that weather always plays a role in determining election results and I would tend to agree with Huckabee’s opinion about Ron Paul benefiting from bad weather on the day of the caucuses, a recent poll indicates that Newt Gingrich would in fact benefit from inclimate weather in Iowa.

According to an American Research Group Iowa Republican Caucus survey, among likely GOP Caucus voters who say they will definitely participate in the Caucus, 22% say they are voting for Newt Gingrich while only 17% say they would for Ron Paul.  The ARG results were as follows;

  • Newt Gingrich 22%
  • Mitt Romney 20%
  • Ron Paul 17%
  • Rick Perry 10%
  • Michele Bachmann 8%
  • Jon Huntsman 5%
  • Rick Santorum 5%
  • Buddy Roemer 1%
  • Other 0%
  • Undecided 12%

Those results would seem to indicate that Newt’s supporters are more committed to him than the the supporters of others candidates are to their candidate of their choice.

Yet despite this encouraging news for Gingrich, I still agree with Huckabee.

If Iowans find themselves in the midst of a blizzard with near sub-zero temperatures and a foot or two snow falling, the highly motivated, radical Pauliacs  will shovel their way through the snow in order to get their caucus destinations and that kind of committment alone will be enough to make Paul the defacto winner.

Much of this will also come down to organization and in that area, candidates like Bachmann, Santorum, Romney, and Paul, all surpass Newt Gingrich who has little if any real organization in Iowa.

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Trunkline 2012: Saturday Political News in Review and Cinema Politico Movie of the Week

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  • Herman Cain Wins Big! See complete Florida Presidency 5 Straw Poll results here
  • A No Confidence Vote in Orlando.  Was Herman Cain’s p5 win a protest vote?
  • Is South Carolina Governor & TEA movement favorite Nikki Haley, preparing to endorse Mitt Romney or Herman Cain?
  • Does Romney Truly Embrace Tea Party Principles?
  • Chris Christie Reconsiders 2012 President Bid….Supposedly
  • Missouri Republican Party Takes a Proactive Approach to March Presidential Primary Bill
  • Sen. Susan Collins Delivers Weekly GOP Address on Over-Regulation
  • Preview of the Sunday Morning Political News Shows, 9/25/11: 
  1. Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace: White House senior adviser David Plouffe and Sen. Lindsey Graham What’s the President got planned for the next budget deal and how do we handle Pentagoon claims about Pakistan behind terrorist attacks.
  2. ABC’s This Week: Senior White House Advisor David Plouffe.
  3. NBC’s Meet the Press: Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel; Michael Bloomberg, Mayor of New York City (I); Donna Shalala President, University of Miami and Former Secretary of Health and Human Services; William Bennett, Former Secretary of Education; Tim Shriver, Chairman and CEO of Special Olympics; Tavis Smiley, PBS.
  4. CBS’s Face the Nation: DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz and RNC Chair Reince Priebus.
  5. CNN’s State of the Union with Candy Crowley: David Plouffe, senior White House adviser; Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA); Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN); Gov. Mitch Daniels (R-IN), author “Keeping the Republic.”
  6. CNN’s Reliable Sources with Howard Kurtz: Jennifer Rubin, The Washington Post; David Shuster, Current TV; Craig Crawford, Congressional Quarterly; Ron Suskind, author and former Wall Street Journal senior national affairs reporter; Connie Schultz, former Cleveland Plain Dealer reporter; wife of Sen. Sherrod Brown.
  7. Washington Week with Gwen Ifill and National Journal: Christi Parsons of Tribune News; John Harwood of CNBC and The New York Times; Karen Tumulty of The Washington Post; Susan Davis and Jim Tankersley of National Journal.
  8. Bloomberg’s Political Capital with Al Hunt: Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI).
  9. NBC’s The Chris Matthews Show: Andrew Sullivan, The Daily Beast; Helene Cooper, The New York Times; Gloria Borger, CNN; Michael Gerson, The Washington Post.
  • Saturday Night Politics at  White House 2012’s Cinema Politico:  This Saturday night’s political movie pick…….Anytown USA.

Brought to you by White house 2012 & Hulu.com, Anytown USA is a  funny and eye-opening look into a hard-fought mayoral race between a legally blind, blunt-speaking, conservative Republican incumbent, a retired Democrat brought back into the fray, and a legally blind write-in candidate, in the small town of Bogota, New Jersey. With its quirky characters, dilapidated infrastructure, and impassioned citizens, Bogota serves as the perfect backdrop for a behind-the-scenes look at our nation’s political heart.

For anyone who is an experienced political hand, Anytown USA will have you saying, “Been there.  Done that”.  It is an amusing but real and ultimately, surprising, look at a political campaign that could be like any campaign in any town.  It offers a good look at the feelings that lie behind campaigns and which motivate the candidates.

Winner – Best Documentary – Minneapolis/St. Paul, Long Island, and Staten Island Film Festivals. Winner – Best Director – Trenton Film Festival. Official Selections – Atlanta and Newport Beach Film Festivals.

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