Watch One Iowa Caucus Precinct Via Live Stream

Bookmark and Share    Take the time to see the Caucus process live via a live stream feed of  one Iowa Caucus precinct.

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Herman Cain Resurfaces with the Promise of an Unconventional Endorsement

Bookmark and Share   Moments ago, in a Fox News interview, Herman Cain resurfaced and shed some light on his future role in the 2012 presidential election.

Cain told viewers that he does not intend to endorse any candidate any time soon.  He states, “If I were to make an endorsement now, it might split the vote”.  He claims that in addition to not wanting to do that, he also does not want to do anything that prevents voters from remaining engaged in the process and educating themselves about candidates.

But the Herminator does promise to eventually issue what he called “an unconventional endorsement”.  He added that after running an unconventioanl campaign, an unconventional endorsement is only appropriate.

During the interview Cain admitted that in the end he will support whoever is the Republican nominee and as for his own political future he states that because of his accelerated age, he believes his biological clock will preclude any future run for president and he is not positioning himself for any future cabinet position.  However Cain did promise to remain active through his new political organization which is headquartered on the internet at The Cain Solutions website.

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As I Asked Before, Does It Make Sense to Endorse the People You Want to Run Against?

Bookmark and Share    Last week I was criticized for criticizing now former Republican presidential candidate Gary Johnson for endorsing Ron Paul for the Republican presidential nomination while at the same time seeking the Libertarian presidential nomination.  I made a bit of a stink about the stupidity of endorsing the candidacy of someone who you intend to oppose.

As it turned out, when Johnson made it official that he was changing his Party registration from Republican to Libertarian, dropping his bid for the G.O.P. presidential nomination, and seeking the Libertarian Party’s nomination, he did not come right out and endorse Ron Paul.  That made sense.

However, this week, one day before the Iowa Caucuses, Gary Johnson lived up to expectations and came out with the following statement.

“While Ron Paul and I are both libertarians, we don’t necessarily agree on every single issue.

However, on the overriding issues of restoring our economy by cutting out-of-control spending and the need to get back to Constitutional principles in our government, Ron Paul and I are in lock-step.”

….I am hopeful that in urging my supporters in Iowa to vote for Ron Paul in the coming caucuses, a victory for the principles we share can be won.”

Thank you Gary Johnson.

Thanks for redeeming me and my previous post on this topic.  You have helped make my questions more relevant than ever and it is my greatest hope that you will in eventually  decide whether you want to be President or whether you want Ron Paul to be President. Once you make that decision, maybe you will finally be able to do a little good for either yourself or Ron Paul.  Until then you are  just being a fool and playing us for fools.

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Gingrich Super PAC Launches Super Big Ad Buy in Iowa

Bookmark and Share    The individuals behind the pro-Gingrich Super PAC known as Winning Our Future have launched their first ad in Iowa with a reported significant media buy of $250,000.  The ad will run from now through Monday, January 2nd, the day before the Iowa Caucuses.

The ad offers a compelling arguments for those who are still undecided and open to Newt Gingrich’s candidacy.

It tries to play on the strong anti-establishment sentiments that are motivating much of the electorate, including those within the TEA movement.

The ad contends that given the aggressive opposition to Newt’s candidacy that establishment Republicans demonstrated, he is clearly no friend of the establishment.

The point is quite a valid one and one which Newt Gingrich could have and should have run with as soon as the inundation of negative attacks on him began.  Had Newt’s campaign been able to create and focus on a single message that would have defined himself as the anti-establishment candidate, he could have maintained much of the lead that he once held.  But the lack of political discipline and organization of Newt’s campaign failed to capitalize on that and lacked the ability to effectively coordinate such a theme.

Fortunately, the Super PAC, that is not affiliated with Newt’s campaign, has taken it upon themselves to try and do what Newt didn’t and while I think their new ad helps, I believe that it is too little, too late to move Newt’s numbers significantly.  At this stage  of the game in Iowa and New Hampshire, the real focus needs to be on undecided voters and the Get Out the Vote operation.  Unfortunately, Newt lacks the organizational ability to identify those undecided voters and insure that those who are solidly behind him, show up at their precinct’s caucus and make their support official.

Compounding Newt’s problem is his loss of momentum.

If those who are supporting Gingrich come to believe that Newt has slipped so far that it is impossible for him to win, some of those supporters may not bother with the trouble of trudging out to a Caucus on a cold night and listening to an hour of speeches only to see their candidate suffer what they believe is an inevitable defeat.

So while ad likes this can’t hurt, Gingrich needs to somehow excite his supporters and win over a good portion of the very sizeable undecided vote.  Then he needs to make sure they show up at their proper caucus location.  However, at the moment, Newt is conceding the momentum to Ron paul and Mitt Romney and the ground game to Romney, Paul, Bachmann, and Santorum.

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Trunkline 2012: Friday’s Campaign Trail News Wrap-Up from White House 2012 – 12/9/11

Bookmark and Share  Newt has Mitt on the ropes in Michigan, critics scratch their heads regarding Newt, Ron Paul’s chances, Rick Perry trips over his tongue, Democrats ban their Occupy friends from their convention, Buddy Roemer continues to try to win the Republican nomination with those banned Occupy protesters, and FDR tutors Obama in class warfare tactics.  These are just some of them gems found in the wealth of treasure in today’s Trunkline 2012.

“To think that he’s an outsider or a tea partier, that he’s going to go into the White House and change things up when he’s been the constant Washington, D.C., insider doesn’t even survive the falling-off-the-chair-laughing test,”Congresswoman Michele Bachmann on former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich

  • Twitter of the Day:
Newt Gingrich   newtgingrich   Newt Gingrich
 
My first day in office, I will move the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Israel’s chosen place, Jerusalem. Pls watch. http://bit.ly/uSPYO3
 
 
 

 

“Lazy” by Perry Productions, the Campaign that Writes Good Scripts but Needs Better Performers

Bookmark and Share  Rick Perry has come out with his latest campaign ad, one of many new 30 seconds spots that are most likely being used to fill up the ad time he purchased on Iowa television and cable, not to mention on Fox News via cable throughout the nation. 

The new spot is entitled “Lazy” and it uses President Obama’s claim that American’s have become lazy, to argue that the real problem with America is not some perceived  laziness of  Americans, but rather the need to clean house of people like President Obama [see the ad below this post] .   The commercial than refers to several populist points from Perry’s recent multifaceted, reform proposal that seeks to change the way government does business by reforming both the government  process and the federal institutions overseeing those processes.

What strikes me most about this and all the others ads put out by Perry, is just how perfect he is in them. 

In them we see a man who we can relate to, and easily see the ability to warm up to.  In them we see a Rick Perry who is charming, strong, and seemingly confident and competent.  It is almost like we’re watching the Marlboro man perform before us.  

It demonstrates just how perfect a candidate Perry is when scripted and why there was so much enthusiasm for him before he actually took his show on the road and performed before a live audience.  Perhaps that is why Rick Perry’s campaign is putting out so many new 30 second spots this early.  You can note that the heightened proliferation of Perry television ads dates back to the day after he suffered a very severe and very public brain freeze siezure during one of the previous debates.  It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that Perry needed to repair his image somehow, and evidently he was convinced that a closed set would serve him far better than another performance before a live, national, studio audience.

All of Perry’s new ad ‘s are actually quite good.  In addition to a candidate who can speak well,  the things his handlers have him saying are actually populist positions of common sense approaches to our problems.

Unfortunately though, the new reputation that Perry established for himself through a number of verbal songs and dances that ended up with his foot in his mouth, now proceeds him and these new ads.  So the question now is, can Rick Perry use these ads to rehabilitate his reputation, and at the same time, buy him the  time he needs to get his act together? 

That has yet to be seen but with the luxury of a well stocked campaign treasury, it is possible for Perry to comeback.    However any comeback for Perry must occur very early, like in Iowa.

A torrent of money initially flowed in to Perry’s campaign, but after he seemed to implode before our eyes, the torrent turned in to a relative trickle as donors and donations dried up for Perry.  And unless Perry can take his early gotten wealth and use it to buy him time and a new image before the Iowa Caucuses, the money flow will continue to dry up for him.  

Meanwhile the ads keep coming and for Rick Perry and his campaign, hopes springs eternal.  Unfortunately for though, the Iowa caucuses are held in the Winter.  If they were held in the Spring, he would have a better shot at coming back.

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Air War Begins as Perry and Cain Try to Take Control of Iowa

Bookmark and Share  With less than two months to go before voting to pick a Republican presidential nominee begins, and Thanksgiving and Christmas cutting down on the amount of time candidates have to get their message, Rick Perry and Herman Cain have begun airing radio ads.

Perry’s ad [hear the ad below this post] is a an upbeat ad that avoids negative attacks and focusses on his reform minded agenda by touting how he is not content with “tinkering” with our tax code, he wants it dismantled and replaced with his 20% tax plan.  The ad also quotes glowing praise of Perry’s plan that has been offered by leading conservative tax and financial experts.

In its entirety, the radio spot is the type of piece that could help him stabilize his downward spiral in the polls among Iowa voters.  If his ad buy is significant and if he keeps it running for decent amount of time in the right markets, it will have a positive effect.  Of course it won’t be enough to save him, but is enough to give the opportunity to pull himself up.

Dean Kleckner

Meanwhile Herman Cain has begun to air his first ad in Iowa.

Cain’s piece utilizes the endorsement of Iowa’s former Farm Bureau chief Dean Kleckner, as the basis for his appeal to the agriculture dominated state. Having been the President of the Iowa Farm Bureau and the American Farm Bureau for more than 24 years his support will resonate among a good portion of the Iowa electorate.  Kleckner is currently on the board of directors for Iowans for Tax Relief.

In the ad, Kleckner says that Herman Cain will stand up for farmers.

In a letter explaining his support for Cain, Kleckner explained that he finds Cain to be a proven CEO with the knowledge and ability to reverse the tide of government over regulation which is damaging the agriculture business.  He stresses that running a farm is like running a business and suggests that with his outstanding record in business, he is best equipped to help farmers.

Separate statements made to the Des Moines Register Cain explains;

“I spent much of my life in the food industry and we could not have succeeded without great American agriculture. I want to thank Mr. Kleckner for his endorsement and let all farmers know that we will stand with them as they try to feed the world.”

Controversial Cain campaign chief Mark Block states;

 “The fact that our first ad in Iowa focuses on agriculture should send a message to the Iowa ag community how much we value the contribution of farmers to the American economy and their importance in the caucuses.”

Both ads are good and have the ability to move some numbers in Iowa, but with candidates like Bachmann, Gingrich, and Romney, saving their money and holding their powder, it has yet to be seen what they put out.  The right message presented creatively and supported by a substantial follow up in the form of a good ground game, could easily turn back any improved numbers that Perry and Cain may gain with their new ads.   No matter what though, now is when the size of the candidate’s campaign treasury really starts making the difference.  A well financed campaign like Rick Perry’s can either spend their money on a steady stream of ads, from now till the Caucus takes place, while others like Cain will have to be far more sparing in their ad buy strategy.

The one thing all the candidates should be fearing is Romney.

There is no doubt that he has the money to spend, yet he has not spent it in Iowa.  Does that mean he will save his money and make an insurmountable investment in contests after Iowa?  Or is he going to saturate Iowa with messages that dominate the air in December, when Iowans really start making up their minds about who they will support.

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