Gingrich Super PAC Launches Super Big Ad Buy in Iowa

Bookmark and Share    The individuals behind the pro-Gingrich Super PAC known as Winning Our Future have launched their first ad in Iowa with a reported significant media buy of $250,000.  The ad will run from now through Monday, January 2nd, the day before the Iowa Caucuses.

The ad offers a compelling arguments for those who are still undecided and open to Newt Gingrich’s candidacy.

It tries to play on the strong anti-establishment sentiments that are motivating much of the electorate, including those within the TEA movement.

The ad contends that given the aggressive opposition to Newt’s candidacy that establishment Republicans demonstrated, he is clearly no friend of the establishment.

The point is quite a valid one and one which Newt Gingrich could have and should have run with as soon as the inundation of negative attacks on him began.  Had Newt’s campaign been able to create and focus on a single message that would have defined himself as the anti-establishment candidate, he could have maintained much of the lead that he once held.  But the lack of political discipline and organization of Newt’s campaign failed to capitalize on that and lacked the ability to effectively coordinate such a theme.

Fortunately, the Super PAC, that is not affiliated with Newt’s campaign, has taken it upon themselves to try and do what Newt didn’t and while I think their new ad helps, I believe that it is too little, too late to move Newt’s numbers significantly.  At this stage  of the game in Iowa and New Hampshire, the real focus needs to be on undecided voters and the Get Out the Vote operation.  Unfortunately, Newt lacks the organizational ability to identify those undecided voters and insure that those who are solidly behind him, show up at their precinct’s caucus and make their support official.

Compounding Newt’s problem is his loss of momentum.

If those who are supporting Gingrich come to believe that Newt has slipped so far that it is impossible for him to win, some of those supporters may not bother with the trouble of trudging out to a Caucus on a cold night and listening to an hour of speeches only to see their candidate suffer what they believe is an inevitable defeat.

So while ad likes this can’t hurt, Gingrich needs to somehow excite his supporters and win over a good portion of the very sizeable undecided vote.  Then he needs to make sure they show up at their proper caucus location.  However, at the moment, Newt is conceding the momentum to Ron paul and Mitt Romney and the ground game to Romney, Paul, Bachmann, and Santorum.

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Pence Pits a Sure Thing for Governor, Against a Not So Sure Bid for President

Bookmark and Share In the Washington Whispers section of U.S. News and World Report, columnist Paul Bedard posted a piece entitled GOP Rep. Pence Is Part Reagan, Part Kennedy. In it he uses two statements to establish the title of his post. Growing up, Congressman Pence recalls being inspired by JFK but as an adult Pence believes that Ronald Reagan was the last president in his lifetime who accounts for a truly good model for a traditional American presidency.

Congressman Mike Pence

But more telling than Bedards appealing title, are Mike Pences own words discussing his future.

In the column, Pence claims that many have been encouraging him to run for Governor of Indiana. But he added Weve also gotten more than a little bit of encouragement to consider running for president. It would seem that the Congressman is trying to suggest that there is more of a popular outcry for him to run President, than there is for him to replace Governor Mitch Daniels who is term limited and prohibited from running for reelection in 2012.

It is hard to draw a conclusion about Pences future based on these statements, but a run for the Republican presidential nomination is possible and if youre a fan of Mike Pence, his emphasis on the encouragement he has received to run for President, than you might say this helps leans toward a Pence presidential candidacy being more likely than less likely. However Pence states that he will make his decision in the Spring.

That decision is probably going to be based on who is actually going to be running for President.

Everyone knows that frontrunner Mitt Romney is running, and its pretty apparent that Romney is not one of those whom Pence would base his decision on. The three whom will most likely have the biggest effect on his decision to run for President are Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, and most of all, Sarah Palin.

With these three names out of the picture, Pence will have a good shot at giving people like Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty and even Mike Huckabee a run for their money. With those three names or any significant combination of them out, Pence could lock up a substantial segment of the social and fiscal conservative base, a base which will be critical in the early contests of Iowa, new Hampshire, South Carolina and even Florida.

But even if Mike Pence had a clear road to locking up the conservative base vote, history is still against him. Not since 1880 and James Garfield, has a Member of the House of Representatives gone straight from the House, to e White House. But to make the hill Pence would have to climb to get to the Oval Office even steeper is another name to consider in the GOP race for President——Mitch Daniels. As the popular two term Governor of Indiana, if Daniels does run for President, he could stymie some of Pences steam, especially in his own home state of Indiana.

All things considered, I believe Mike Pence is more likely to run for Governor of Indiana and replace Daniels, instead of going up against Daniels or figures like Palin, Barbour or Gingrich. With the House of Representatives as his only springboard, competing against those names for money and the Republican base, will make a run for Governor by Pence, a much safer bet. But still, Pence undoubtedly has White House fever which makes me believe that while Pences mind is made up, its the decisions of others which can change his own mind.

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