New Hampshire Straw Poll Puts Candidate Karger in First Place

This past Thursday evening first time presidential candidate, Fred Karger won the St. Anselm College Republican Straw Poll. College Republican President Brock Weber announced the results to a room full of participants at the famous New Hampshire Institute of Politics after voting ended at 9:00 pm. The straw poll was conducted all week on the campus of this conservative Catholic College located in New Hampshire’s largest city.

Karger was the only presidential candidate or potential presidential candidate to have addressed the gathering but his win was still a surprise and an indication of just how little a lock anyone has on the nomination at this stage in the game. Of course this straw poll is not neccessarily a good indication of the opinion of New Hampshire voters. The pool of voters in this poll were of a specific age group and many students attending the college from other states, are not even eligible to vote in New Hampshire. But a win is a win and in this case it was a pretty significant one for Fred Karger.

The final results were as follows:

• Fred Karger, 79 Votes
• Mitt Romney, 74 Votes
• Donald Trump, 26 Votes
• Tim Pawlenty, 24 Votes
• Ron Paul, 24 Votes
• Rudy Giuliani, 22 Votes
• Rick Santorum, 20 Votes
• Sarah Palin, 9 Votes
• Herman Cain, 8 Votes
• Gary Johnson, 8 Votes
• Mike Huckabee, 8 votes
• Newt Gingrich, 7 Votes
• Haley Barbour, 3 Votes
• Mitch Daniels, 2 Votes
• John Bolton, 1 Vote
• Rand Paul, 1 Vote
• Other, 6 Votes

Although all straw polls are little more than beauty contests, a win like this for a virtual unknown can help boost his name ID and increase the viability of Karger’s candidacy as time goes by. It will also help his case when it comes to being included in future Republican presidential debates.

Florida; The Sunshine State, I mean the Nomination State

With ten months to go before Republicans begin holding their binding presidential nomination contests, the field of candidates is still taking shape, the primary and caucus calendar is still being worked out, and a clear choice for the nomination is as far away from the minds of voters as Barack Obama is from reducing the nation’s debt. All the lingering questions that are leaving the G.O.P. blowing in the wind, even as President Obama continues to show weaknesses among voters, are helping to assure us a few things and that is that Sunshine State of tomorrow, is looking more and more and more like the Granite State of yesterday.

Up until 2000, no Republican has ever won the White House without winning the New Hampshire Primary. That year, John McCain, defeated then Governor George Bush. That year, Bush went on to win South Carolina, the state immediately following New Hampshire, and then eventually both the nomination and the Presidency. In 2012, it is likely that New Hampshire will again produce a primary election winner who could easily fail to win the Republican nomination. That person is Mitt Romney.

Romney currently leads most all New Hampshire polls. But that doesn’t say much about Romney’s overall viability as candidate for the G.O.P. nomination. By all rights, Romney should be winning New Hampshire. He was the governor of a neighboring state whos media market dominates it, he has a residence in the state’srecently campaigned among New Hampshire voters little more than three years ago, and has maintained a presence in the state ever since. The fact is that Mitt Romney should be the frontrunner to win, not only the New Hampshire Republican Primary, but the Republican presidential nomination as well. And while for many different reasons he is the frontrunner, his hold on to that tile is tenuous at best.

In a ginned up TEA movement environment that has a pervasive limited government mentality running through the Party like hot water filtering through a tea bag, the “big-government” healthcare plan which Romney created in Massachusetts when he was Governor, is leaving a bad taste in the mouths of Republican voters. It is indeed his biggest weakness, a weakness that causes people to stop and scrutinize Romney’s record even closer. And under that scrutiny, his other flaws begin to take on a new dimension that accentuates his flip-flops on issues like abortion, and a personal wealth so vast that people begin to feel that he is out of touch with the common man.

All of these are themes which a well armed, articulate, opposing campaigning can drive home and use to significantly hurt Mitt Romney, especially outside of the seemingly friendly pro-Romney, environment in New Hampashire.

Which brings us to Florida.

When all the dust settles on the brewing primary and caucus calendar battle, Florida’s nomination contest is more than likely to follow the first four—- Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Florida is currently trying to move up the date of their primary to one which would come before these states, but the very real possibility of the RNC penalizing the Sunshine State for such a move by taking away the national convention that is suppose to be held in Tampa, will more than likely resolve the problem. If that is in fact true, while Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, will still be important, especially for Mitt Romney, it is more than likely that these four states will produce mixed results.

Depending of course on who is running, Iowa is likely to choose the most predominantly, high profile social conservative, something which even though Mitt Romney is, the heavily concentrated evangelical vote in Iowa does not believe. Here a Huckabee, Palin, Bachmann-like candidate is more than likely to win, if they run.

Romney is more than likely to win in New Hampshire. He has to if he wants to survive. Romney may also win Nevada, but this is certainly not a foregone conclusion. People like Newt Gingrich and Ambassador and fellow Mormon, Jon Huntsman, will make it harder for Romney to solidify a victory. But even if Mitt did win Nevada, a likely loss for him in the state to follow, South Carolina, will muddle any clear frontrunner status.

That would then leave the G.O.P. field facing Florida.

With 99 delegates to the convention, it will be the biggest number of delegates awarded in any contest up to that point and a win here could provide critical momentum to one of the candidates as they head into a Super Tuesday event that will contests in anywhere from 9 to 11 states spread out in the South, West and Mid-Atlantic. Among these states are California with 172 delegates and New York with 95 delegates.

While these Super Tuesday primaries involve multiple influencing factors such as differing regional and ideological bends, the desire to find a clear frontrunner will allow Florida to provide significant numerical and psychological momentum to the campaign of the candidate who wins its primary. Florida could either solidify frontrunner status for someone like Romney, or provide a candidate like Haley Barbour with a big boost of confidence, especially if Barbour wins South Carolina as he heads into Florida. If she were to run, Florida could make or break the campaign of Sarah Palin and it can do the same for Tim Pawlenty

Florida is the real wildcard here. It will have the ability to confirm a candidates frontrunner status, take it away from them, or produce a new frontrunner right before a large chunk of delegates make up their minds. People like Haley Barbour certainly see the importance of Florida. That is why along with an aggressive, under-the-radar presence in South Carolina, his potential campaign has been aggressively courting and cultivating Florida. In addition to keynoting a state Republican dinner he is calling legislators and key Party leaders, seeking their endorsements and if they don’t, he is dissuading them from giving any money to other candidates until he has made a decision.

In the final analysis, Florida is shaping up to be far more important than New Hampshire use to be and while it is not going to speak definitively for the entire Republican Party, it will have a far bigger voice than most other states.

Romney Attacks Obamacare and Defends Romney-care in New Hampshire

Obamacare is bad law, bad policy, and it is bad for Americas families.

Those were the words spoken by former Massachusetts Republican Governor Mitt Romney at the Carroll County Republican Committees annual Lincoln Day dinner in New Hampshire. The event was the first appearance of Governor Romney in New Hampshire so far this year and he used it to discuss the need to repeal and replace President Obama in 2012.

Romneys words in regards to Obamacare, the Democrat healthcare reform bill that placed healthcare under the control of the federal bureaucracy, were crucial ones. The healthcare plan that he enacted when he was Governor of the Bay State, is largely viewed as a model for, and precursor of Obamacare. As such Romneys Massachusetts healthcare plan has become Mitts largest hurdle to winning the Republican presidential nomination and the presidency itself. The issue is so dominant a problem that it has literally become synonymous with his name. Which is why Romney tries not to dance around the issue. Instead he addresses it head on and tries to turn it around by making it into a states rights issue that is more to his advantage.

Romney explained;

Our experiment wasnt perfect some things worked, some didnt and some things Id change,

He continued by stating;

One thing I would never do is to usurp the constitutional power of states with a one-size-fits-all federal takeover.

Romney added;

The federal government isnt the answer for running health care any more than its the answer for running Amtrak or the post office.

Romneys words are not as much spin as they true. Romney never proposed Romney-care for the nation and he is not a newcomer to the advocacy of states rights. But the fact that as Governor, he created a government program that mandated everyone to participate in it to one extent or another does not make his claim quite as palatable as it should be among an electorate that is revved up in their opposition to big government. Nevertheless, Mitt Romney is left with little more to do than argue that while he thought big government worked for Massachusetts, he doesnt think it works for the nation.

In another line of attack against the President, Romney steered the discussion to areas where his greatest strengths liethe economy.

According to the former Governor;

“It’s going to take more than new rhetoric to put Americans back to work. It’s going to take a new president of the United States,”

In describing what he often calls Obamas Misery Index, Romney made clear that he believes President Obama has learned nothing about the economy despite campaigning in New Hampshire and seeing row after row of empty textile mill buildings.

Early polls in New Hampshire have Romney leading all his possible Republican rivals and many also have him beating President Obama in the state. President Obama won New Hampshire in 2008.

White House 2012 Monthy Ranking of Republican Presidential Contenders

The White House 2012 ranking of possibe Republican presidential contenders for March is out and while there is much movement around from last month, most of the top tier contneders remain the same as they were in February and the staff of White House 2012 still has Mitt Romney leading in first place.

The White House 2012 ranking is established through a system that takes an average from the placement that the writers at WH2012 put the candidates in. Their placements are acombination of the ground game contenders are playing, their fundraising abilities, name ID, and a mix of individual expectations and prediction.

While theses standings do not reflect the desire of any one White House 2012 writer it is a measure of whereall the variables pace thesepossible candidates among the general Republican electorate at this point in time.

Romney Runs Strong Against Huntsman Among Mormons and In Utah

With the possible entry of Jon Huntsman into the Republican presidential contest, Mitt Romney is encountering one of the first of what will probably be many twists for him to come. Huntsman is the former, popular Governor of Utah. He left the job to accept President Obamas appointment of him to become Ambassador China, less than 1 year into his second term. Now Huntsman resigned from that job in what is widely seen as a possible run for President.

Such a run would force Mitt Romney to do something which he has not had to do in his previous run for the G.O.P. presidential nomination ..compete for the votes of fellow Mormons. Both Huntsman and Romney are Mormons and in 2008, the large populations of LDS members helped boost Romneys fortunes primarily in Western states such as Utah and Nevada. If Huntsman were to run, he would risk splitting the Mormon vote between himself and Romney. But a new The Deseret News/KSL poll gives Romney some reason to be encouraged. It finds that 56 percent of Utahns would vote for Romney, while only 26 percent would choose Huntsman. Another 9 percent said they would vote for neither candidate, and nine more percent were undecided.

While those numbers are good, among Republican voters, the poll finds that 72 percent would support Romney while only 15 percent would vote for the once popular former Governor.

These results are probably due in large part to the fact that before he left office as Governor, Huntsman made remarks in support of several gay rights issues, including same-sex marriage. These pronouncements stunned many Mormons and much of the predominantly conservative electorate of Utah. The poll shows that these voters have apparently not forgotten Huntsmans remarks.

The most interesting thing to come from thispoll is to find that Huntsman has lost much of the shine that he once had among his supporters. That does not bode at all well for Huntsman. Ifhe cant compete with Romney in his own state, it is not likely that he would be more appealing than Mitt in other states, and if Huntsman cant beat Romney in Utah, he is not likely to beat him anywhere else.

At the moment Huntsman is perceived as a moderate and asa potential candidateto compete more directly with aRudy Giuliani than a Mitt Romney. But Jon Huntsman has the potential to shape a very attractive candidacy through a well run and well crafted campaign that could make inroads into the base of the Party and successfully pitch him as one of the most electable Republicans to run against President Obama in the general election.

The road to the White House is a long one. Just ask Mitt Romney. He has been running now since 2006. So while it is too early to say how far Huntsman will get. For now the map looks a bit better for Mitt than it does for Jon.

CPAC 2011: Mitt Romney’s Speech at CPAC from White House 212

After a poignant introduction by his wife of 42 years, Ann Romney introduced her husband witha closing that said, “I am proud to introduce you to the man who I would like to lead our nation, Mitt Romney.

A confident Mitt than strode to the podium to deliver a solid speech that contained dozens of memorable one liners and a solidconservative message that focused on jobs, the economy, President Obama, moral values, American exceptionalism, foreign threats andthe need to unleash freedom in American in orderfor success to be unleashed in America.

Romney’s speech was smooth, animated, rousing and in tune with the conservatives he addressed in the audience as well as the majority of the rest of the G.O.P.. And while his speech was also convincing, the question remains to be, can he shape an entire campaign that can be equally as convincing in Iowa and South Carolina? It my hope that he can.

Below is a transcript of the Romney speech.

“Ive been in Anns shadow ever since our first date in high school. Over our years together, shes waged some pretty impressive battles. Among her many accomplishments, none is more important or rewardingto us and to our countrythan her accomplishment as a successful mother of 5 and grandmother of 16.

Thank you, Ann.

The other night, from opposite coasts of the country, Ann and I watched President Obamas State of the Union address. Ann figured out pretty fast what was going on. She sent me an email saying that it sounded like he was reading my CPAC speech from last year.

What we were hearing was not just a new and improved Barack Obama; it was an entirely different Barack Obama.

Saul Alinskywas out; Jeffrey Immelt was in.

The President went from Change you can believe in to Can you believe this change?

He sounded like he was going to dig up the First Ladys organic garden to put in a Bobs Big Boy.

But as the speech went on, it was clear that this was just the appearance of change: His answer for Americans out of work was more government spending and $50 billion for high-speed rail.

He replaced his Chicago politician chief of staff with a fresh face from Chicago, named Daley.

Make no mistake: What we are watching is not Brave New World; what were watching is Groundhog Day!

Two years ago, this new President faced an economic crisis and an increasingly uncertain world.

An uncertain world has been made more dangerous by the lack of clear direction from a weak President. The President who touted his personal experience as giving him special insight into foreign affairs was caught unprepared when Iranian citizens rose up against oppression. His proposed policy of engagement with Iran and North Korea won him the Nobel Peace Prize. Hows that worked out? Iran armed Hezbollah and Hamas and is rushing toward nuclear weapons. North Korea fired missiles, tested nukes, sunk a South Korean ship and shelled a South Korean island. And his reset program with Russia? That consisted of our President abandoning our missile defense in Poland and signing a one-sided nuclear treaty. The cause of liberty cannot endure much more of his they get, we give diplomacy!

The world and our valiant troops watched in confusion as the President announced that he intended to win the war in Afghanistan.as long as it didnt go much beyond August of 2011. And while the Taliban may not have an air force or sophisticated drones, its safe to say they do have calendars.

I surely hope that at some point in the near future, the President will finally be able to construct a foreign policy, any foreign policy.

Here at home, the Presidents response to the economic crisis was the most expensive failed social experiment in modern history.

He guaranteed that unemployment wouldnt go beyond 8%. As he watched millions and millions of Americans lose their jobs, lose their homes and lose their hope, his response was this: It could be worse.

It could be worse? This is the leader of the Free Worlds answer to the greatest job loss since the Great Depression? Whats next? Let them eat cake?

Oh, excuse me. Organic cake.

Its often said that the Presidency of the United States is the toughest job in the world. Fair enough. Undoubtedly true.

But how difficult is it to take office in the middle of a raging economic crisis and understand that the economy should be your number one priority?

The President who took office on January 20th, 2009 should have had one central mission put Americans back to work! Fight for every job! Because every job is a paycheck and paychecks fuel Americans dreams.

Without a paycheck, you cant take care of your family. Without a paycheck you cant buy school books for your kids, keep a car on the road or help an aging parent make ends meet.

President Barack Obama has stood watch over the greatest job loss in modern American history. And that, my friends, is one inconvenient truth that will haunt this President throughout history.

Today there are more men and women out of work in America than there are people working in Canada. And in the month of January, Canada created more new jobs than we did.

When Ronald Reagan ran for President, he hung the Misery Index around Jimmy Carters neck. Todays misery is real unemployment, home foreclosures and bankruptcies. This is the Obama Misery Indexand its at a record high. Its going to take more than new rhetoric to put Americans back to workits going to take a new president.

Let me make this very clear. If I decide to run for President, it wont take me two years to wake up to the job crisis threatening America. And I wont be asking Tim Geithner how the economy worksor Larry Summers how to start a business.

Fifteen million Americans are out of work. And millions and millions more cant find the good paying jobs they long for and deserve. Youve seen the heartbreaking photos and videos of the jobs fairs around the country, where thousands show up to stand in line all day just to have a chance to compete for a few job openings that probably arent as good as the job they held two years ago. These job fairs and unemployment lines are President Obamas Hoovervilles.

Make no mistake. This is a moral tragedya moral tragedy of epic proportion. Unemployment is not just a statistic. Fifteen million unemployed is not just a number. Unemployment means kids cant go to college; that marriages break up under the financial strain; that young people cant find work and start their lives; and men and women in their 50s, in the prime of their lives, fear they will never find a job again. Liberals should be ashamed that they and their policies have failed these good and decent Americans!

The President is trying to show that he finally gets itthat he really isnt a liberal after all. But his idea of conservative economic policy is to invite some corporate CEOs to the White House for an evening of table-talk.

Im sorry Mr. President, but thats not a policy, its a dinner party.

Weve seen the failure of liberal answers before. Liberal welfare policies condemned generations to dependency and poverty. Liberal education policies fail our children today, because they put pensions and privilege for union bosses above the reading scores of our kids. Liberal social policies have failed to protect the unborn. And now, the hollow promises of liberal economic policies have failed to provide millions of Americans with the dignity of work.

Under the pressure of a crisis, people turn to what they really believe. With our economy in crisis, the President and his fellow liberals turned to Europe for their answers. Like the Europeans, they grew the government, they racked up bigger deficits, they took over healthcare, they pushed cap-and-trade, they stalled production of our oil and gas and coal, they fought to impose unions on Americas workers, and they created over a hundred new agencies and commissions and hundreds of thousands of pages of new regulations. Theirs is a European-style solution to an American problem. It does not work there and it will never work here!

The right answer is not to believe in European solutions. The right answer is to believe in Americato believe in free enterprise, capitalism, limited government, federalismand to believe in the constitution, as it was written and intended by the founders.

My father never graduated from college. He apprenticed as a lath and plaster carpenter, and he was darn good at it. He learned how to put a handful of nails in his mouth and spit them out, point forward. On his honeymoon, he and Mom drove across the country. Dad sold aluminum paint along the way, to pay for gas and hotels.

Dad always believed in America; and in that America, a lath and plaster man could work his way up to running a little car company called American Motors and end up Governor of a state where he had once sold aluminum paint.

For my Dad, America was the land of opportunity, where free enterprise, small business and entrepreneurs were encouraged and respected. The spirit of enterprise propelled Americas economy and our standard of living past every other nation on earth.

I refuse to believe that America is just another place on the map with a flag. I believe that America is an exceptional nation, of freedom and opportunity and hope.

The America I believe in has goodness and a greatness that creates a unique American genius. That genius has blessed the world, led the world and yes, even saved the world from unimaginable darkness.

We didnt originate the concept of liberty but our Founding Fathers redefined it and shared it with the world. From the brilliant sands of Omaha beach to the dark valleys of the Hindu Kush, we have fought with an unmatched courage and determination, not to conquer territory, but to give others the chance to experience the liberty that is humanitys destiny.

Given all that America has done to lift others from poverty, given the millions of afflicted we have helped to heal and comfort, and given the hundreds of thousands of lives of Americas sons and daughters that have been, and are today, sacrificed to defend freedom, I will not apologize for America!

I dont apologize for America because I believe in America!

We believe in freedom, in opportunity. We believe in free enterprise and capitalism. We believe in the American dream. And we believe that the principles that made America the leader of the world today are the very principles that will keep America the leader of the world tomorrow.

These last two years have not been the best of times. But while weve lost a couple of years, we have not lost our way.

This is fundamentally what conservatism is all about. We sing for God to bless America. He already has, he does now and thanks to the greatness of the American people and the principles that guide us, he will do so for generations to come.

Believe in America. Freedom depends on it.”

Thank you.

Romney Not Ready to Write Off Iowa

Recent word was that Mitt Romney was going to skip the Iowa caucuses, the first presidential nominating contest in the nation, and focus on insuring a win in New Hampshire and then move on to South Carolina and Nevada. Now in an interview with Hugh Hewitt, Romney has made it clear that if is to run, he and his campaign will be in Iowa and every other state. Romney tells Hewitt “I decide to run, I’ll be planning on running nationwide, and certainly the early states will be places where we concentrate most of our attention,”.

As pointed out in detail in a previous WH2012 post, in 2008, Romney exhausted much time and treasure in Iowa. In fact he began devoting his resources into the Iowa caucus in the early part of 2007. When all totaled, he spent $10 million but in the end he came in second to Mike Huckabee.

Romney aides had been indicating that after that experience, they are not sure how much more they could do or spend in Iowa to insure a win 2012. Another factor to consider is the fact that even though Huckabee won in Iowa, John McCain’s showing in the Iowa Caucus, which waswell behindRomney, did not prohibit him from going on to win the Republican presidential nomination.

As I noted in in the same post that I referred to earlier, this surrender strategy may have some mileage but from my perspective, it doesn’t have legs. If Romney can’t win in Iowa, than he has little chance of winning South Carolina. And if Romney can’t win or at least be extremely close to winning in South Carolina, than he is essentially writing off much off the delegate rich South. For his part Mitt told Hewitt “If I get in this, I’m not going to be doing so much of a political calculus as I am a calculus of what message needs to be heard by the American people and how I can deliver it best,”. He added, “And that surely will take me to Iowa as well as the other early states.”

That statement is encouraging. In translation it means that Mitt is confident that his campaign is confident that they have established a strategy that will overcome his perceived weaknesses while also having a superior approach to delivering the right message to the right people. It also means that his campaign is confident in its ability to do a Tanya Harding on his opponents and make them limp behind him in the race.

Romney still left himself some room on just how aggressively he will run in Iowa. While he stated that he will concentrate on the early, he avoided drawing the type of upbeat language you usually hear from politicians. Instead of using the usual lingo which would be, “if I run I intend to run hard and win big in the early states”, he used language a little more ambiguous. This would lead me to believe that a lot of what the Romney camp will do, is based upon whether or not Huckabee and Palin will enter the race. If that happens Romney could still allow himself to have a presence in Iowa, but one small enough to indicate that a poor showing in Iowa was in part due to the fact that he did not campaign hard there.

That strategy would be one that focuses on building on the momentum from a win in New Hampshire as a means to have an upper hand in South Carolina and then Nevada. Of course winning all 4 of the first nomination contests would be the possible result. Which is why Romney carefully parses his words. The real “if” he talks about here is not “if” he runs. He and the rest of us know he is. But what Mitt really means when he says “if” is “”if Huckabee runs. If Huckabee runs, Romney’s campaign strategy switches to one that may go light in Iowa or concentrate” more on the type of opposition research that takes Huckabee down a few pegs with a few body blows on the issue of taxes and a lethal use of the Horton Strategy……..the use of the multiple clemencies that Huckabee issued which resulted in multiple deaths of innocent people, including four police officers.

Romney’s Iowa Strategy; Surrender or Fight?

Reports have it that Mitt Romney is mulling over the possibility of skipping the Iowa Caucuses in 2012 and having his campaign launch in New Hampshire, the state with the second nominating contest in the nation.
In 2008, Romney ran an aggressive and expensive campaign in Iowa. In fact, Romneys Iowa journey began in 2007 when he was the first to start airing campaign ads. Just in preparation for the Ames. straw poll, an important summertime precursor to the Winter caucus Mitt Romney had hired a legion of 60 statewide, so-called super-volunteers, that were paid between $500 and $1,000 per month to campaign for him; over $2.4 million in television ads, a top notch direct-mailing campaign that along with other non-TV campaign materials cost another $2.5 million in , and a consultant who managed Mitts straw poll campaign for $200,000. None of the other Republican contenders came close to either Romneys organization skills or size, or the financial investment he dumped into the state. And that was just up until the time of the straw poll which was held in August of 2007. When the straw poll results were in , Romney won with 32%, which consisted of 4,516 votes. Translating in to financial costs, that meant Romney spent approximately $1,107 per vote for a total of about $5 million.

By the time the actual Iowa Caucus rolled around , five months later in 2008, Romney more than doubled the $5 million he had spent up till the straw poll. But in the end, he lost the Iowa Caucus to Mike Huckabee by 9.18%. Huckabee spent a fraction of what Romney spent and he received 40,841 votes or 34.41% and Romney garnered 29,949 with 25.23%. Interestingly, John McCain, the man who ultimately went on to win the Republican nomination, he came in fourth place with 15,559, 13.11% of the vote. So was Romneys investment in Iowa worth the bang for his buck? In retrospect, it sure wasnt. Having saved his money in Iowa didnt hurt John McCain. But McCain went on to win in New Hampshire, a state that by nature of demographics, Romney should have won. This time, it looks like Romney is realizing that.

Despite the rash of recent reports about Romney skipping Iowa are not new. The thought of bypassing Iowa in 2012 has been in play by the Romney camp for quite a while now. In an October 20, 2009 article for the Iowa Republican by Craig Robinson, Robinson pointed out that Mitt had over $400,000 in his Iowa state PAC, when his presidential campaign ended in early February of 2008 and since the fall of 2008, he had been draining the funds from that PAC.

Robinson also pointed that in June of 2009, Romneys Iowa PAC was down to $203,380.91 and instead of making contributions to county party organizations and legislative candidates, Robinson writes he was using the state PAC to subsidize the salaries of aides, like his former campaign manager, Beth Myers, and Eric Fehrnstrom, his former communications director. They were expenditures that had nothing to do with supporting Iowa candidates or building an organization for his leadership PAC.

All things considered it is easy to see that that the notion of ignoring Iowa has been in the back of Romneys mind for a while and it is also easy to understand why.

After the all out effort that Romney put into Iowa in 2008 and recent polls which show Iowa Caucus voters preferring Mike Huckabee to him, Mitt has to consider the possibilities of not only Huckabee running again, but of the possible candidacies of people like Sarah Palin, Mike Pence, John Thune and possibly even Rick Santorum. If all of these candidates were to run in Iowa, they could sharply divide the large evangelical vote that Romney is not fairing well with, thereby giving him the chance of consolidating the rest of the vote into a win. But if from that group, only one or two of them run, such as Huckabee or Palin, than Romney risks coming in second or even worse. That result would probably grab the headlines more than the winner would. This would make Romney vulnerable, not so much in New Hampshire but especially in South Carolina, an increasingly important lead in state to the delegate rich Southern contests.

The question becomes this. If Romney cant win in Iowa, can he win in South Carolina, a state that has an evangelical vote of similar influence to that of Iowas? And if Mitt cant win South Carolina, can he seriously compete in the significant string of Southern states that follow?

Mitts thinking could easily be to focus on insuring that he wins the New Hampshire primary that should be in his pocket but lost to McCain last time, and then build up at least the impression of momentum with a win in Nevada followed by even the smallest of wins in South Carolina. Perhaps by taking the money and time that he would have placed into Iowa, and invest it in South Carolina instead, will help provide his campaign with the type of long term strategy that he needs to keep him alive in places like Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and other high delegate count states.

As for Iowa, Mitts strengths exist in the Northeastern and Western border counties of the state. These are some ofIowas most highly populated counties. If Mitt was able to target these approximately 18 counties and increase his pluralities in them, he could have a shot at reversing the results of 2008. And if Huckabee is his major opponent in Iowa, it is worth noting that Huckabee has a rather large Achilles heal that all his rivals could easily exploit. The issue of the multiple clemencies that Huckabee gave as Governor of Arkansas, and subsequently resulted in additional crimes, including the death of 4 police officers in Washington state, will take some of the shine off Huckabee. It is also an issue which could be a decisive factor in Huckabees decision to run or not to run.

But Mitt has to make a decision regarding Iowa soon. If he does plan on competing in Iowa, he cant wait too long to snap his organization back together. But Romney has made sure that a final decision has not yet been made on Iowa. Since Craig Robinson’s, 2009 piece in the Iowa Republican, reported more than $100,000 in expenditures from his Iowa political action committees in the final fundraising report of 2010. His Iowa PAC also contributed $10,000 to the gubernatorial campaign of Terry Branstad, $1,000 to Agriculture Secretary Bill Northey and State Auditor David Vaudt, as well as a $2,500 contribution to Senate candidate Joni Ernst and $1,500 to Iowa Senate candidate Andrew Naeve All totaled, Romneys Free and Strong – Iowa PAC ended the year with more than $108,000 in cash on hand.

So Romney has not closed the door on Iowa just yet. That decision will likely come when he knows who he will be running against.

Romney Speaks To Sean Hannity About President Obama & 2012

In an interview with Sean Hannity, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney offered a scathing review of President Obama that took on his deeds more than his State of the Union words. (catch a clip from the interview, below)

As to how he thinks the President has done over the past two years. Romney says; Well, he is trying awfully hard, the problem is he just doesnt know what to do, uh, he has misguided almost everything he has done has been the opposite of what he has hoped to have accomplished.

According to Romney Hes really put in to place, over the last two years, the most anti-investment, anti-business, anti-jobs regiment weve seen, probably in the last couple of decades.

As for his plans regarding a run for President in 2012, the Governor claims that there has been no decision yet but when asked about the current polls which according to Sean Hannity, have him along with Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin as the names most currently favored, Romney responded with what will be an obvious theme of still undeclared, but certain candidacy. He said;

I dont know who else is going to get in the race but I do believe it will be helpful if at least one of the people whos running in the Republican field, had extensive experience in the private sector, in small business, in big business, working with the economy, because frankly, not just solving the near term problems of unemployment, people not getting any checks, is going to require someone with that experience, but also long term. Weve got to have a strong economic foundation to make sure that we can stay ahead of the challenges we face, like a growing China and a militarily aggressive China. Were going to have to stay so far ahead that no one anyone ever questions the capacity of America to stand by the forces of freedom in the world.

I wonder who can fit that description?

2012 Presidential Polling: Romney and Huckabee Tied in New Jersey

Public Policy Polling, a largely Democrat operation, has released New Jersey poll numbers for the evolving field of Republican presidential candidates. The survey of 400 usual Republican primary voters unites the results of several previous independent polls of Iowa and New Hampshire Republican voters which give Huckabee the lead in Iowa and Romney the lead in the Granite State. PPPs New Jersey survey has Huckabee and Romney tied at 18% each. Not too far behind them are Newt Gingrich with 15% and Sarah Palin with 14%.

The poll proves that the early energy and buzz is behind the former Massachusetts governor and former Arkansas governor but it also demonstrates that neither have a firm hold on that energy as many voters are still interested in other prospects.

A further breakdown of the poll provides Mitt Romney with additional evidence of his biggest reason for not being the clear frontrunner for the 2012 Republican nomination is his inability to consolidate the trust and support of conservatives, the G.O.P.s base. Among those New Jersey Republicans polled who consider themselves conservative, Romney finds himself with a 64% favorable to 19% unfavorable rating, a net positive of 45%. But Mike Huckabee has a net positive favorable of 58 with 70% having a favorable opinion of him and only 12% having an unfavorable opinion. Adding to the bad news for Romney among the base of the Party is the fact that both former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and former Republican Vice Presidential nominee and Alaska Governor Sarah Palin also have better favorable ratings among conservatives than Romney.

Romneys favorable ratings as they relate to Huckabee, Gingrich and Palin, come from New Jersey Republicans who describe themselves as moderates.

These results come on the heels of a dinner meeting that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie had with Mitt Romney on Monday evening at Drumthwacket, the New Jersey Governors Mansion which Chris Chritie has chosen not to live in, but is used by the Governor for offical events.

New Jerseys Republican presidential primary will take place in March and it is a winner-take-all contest that sends 50 delegates to the Republican National Convention.

See the complete results and breakdown below:

1. Mike Huckabee / Mitt Romney 18%
2. Newt Gingrich 15%
3. Sarah Palin 14%
4. Ron Paul 8%
5. Tim Pawlenty 4%
6. Mitch Daniels 3%
7. John Thune 2%
8. Someone else/Undecided 19%

Among Conservatives

• Mike Huckabee 21%
• Newt Gingrich 17%
• Sarah Palin 16%
• Mitt Romney 14%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• Mitch Daniels 4%
• John Thune 2%
• Someone else/Undecided 16%

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 24%
• Mike Huckabee 13%
• Ron Paul 12%
• Sarah Palin 11%
• Newt Gingrich 10%
• Mitch Daniels 2%
• John Thune 2%
• Tim Pawlenty 2%
• Someone else/Undecided 24%

Among Men

• Mike Huckabee 20%
• Sarah Palin 18%
• Mitt Romney 15%
• Newt Gingrich 14%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Tim Pawlenty 4%
• Mitch Daniels 3%
• John Thune 2%
• Someone else/Undecided 16%

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 23%
• Newt Gingrich 16%
• Mike Huckabee 16%
• Sarah Palin 9%
• Ron Paul 6%
• Mitch Daniels 3%
• Tim Pawlenty 3%
• John Thune 2%
• Someone else/Undecided 22%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 61% / 17% {+44%}
• Mitt Romney 60% / 20% {+40%}
• Newt Gingrich 54% / 25% {+29%}
• Sarah Palin 58% / 33% {+25%}

Among Conservatives

• Mike Huckabee 70% / 12% {+58%}
• Newt Gingrich 68% / 15% {+53%}
• Sarah Palin 72% / 21% {+51%}
• Mitt Romney 64% / 19% {+45%}

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 53% / 21% {+32%}
• Mike Huckabee 47% / 24% {+23%}
• Newt Gingrich 34% / 37% {-3%}
• Sarah Palin 38% / 48% {-10%}

Among Men

• Mike Huckabee 61% / 22% {+39%}
• Mitt Romney 60% / 25% {+35%}
• Sarah Palin 62% / 29% {+33%}
• Newt Gingrich 58% / 25% {+33%}

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 61% / 12% {+49%}
• Mitt Romney 61% / 14% {+47%}
• Newt Gingrich 49% / 24% {+25%}
• Sarah Palin 53% / 37% {+16%}

Survey of 400 usual Republican primary voters was conducted January 6-9, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Political ideology: 60% Conservative; 38% Moderate; 2% Liberal.

Is Chris Christie Preparing to Endorse Mitt Romney for President?

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie hosted a Monday evening dinner meeting with a mix of advisers and GOP state Party leaders and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

A spokesman for Governor Christie would not comment on the gathering and Romney aides have not elaborated on it either. Several different sources reportedly deny that any specifics regarding an endorsement in New Jerseys Republican presidential primary were discussed.

But Romney has viewed New Jersey as fertile territory. In 2008 presidential campaign, the former Governor paid a decent amount of attention to the state as he made several trips to the Garden State and worked Republican grass root activists aggressively. At the time, his state campaign chairman was Monmouth County State Senator Joe Kyrillos, a former state Party chairman. Kyrillos most recently served as Governor Chris Christies state campaign chairman.

Over the past few years, Romney has been devoting a great deal of time and making an equally great amount of financial contributions to the campaign efforts of many high level and targeted Republicans. In 2009 he took sides in Chris Christies gubernatorial primary and endorsed the then U.S. District Attorney over his opponent Steve Lonegan.

Now, it looks like Romney is beginning to try to collect on his generous devotion of time and money by seeking the endorsements of those he supported since he ended his pursuit of the 2008 presidential nomination. That year, John McCain received the bulk of New Jerseys Republican establishments support, including that of the State GOP Chairman. The states Governor at the time was Democrat Jon Corzine and he was busy backing Barack Obama. Obama wound up winning New Jerseys Democrat Primary and on the Republican side McCain won with 55% of the vote with Romney coming in a distant second with 28% of the vote.

This time around, Chris Christie reigns supreme and with his high national profile and popularity, the Christie endorsement is one which any candidate for President would relish and not just for the delegate count that he could bring to them from Jersey. For Romney, having Chris Christie return the favor of an endorsement will be a prominent conservative feather to stick in his hat, a feather that Romney is going to a need lot of he wants to make past New Hampshire.

Meanwhile, in the South, Newt Gingrich received an endorsement of his own.

Georgia Governor and Gingrich friend, Nathan Deal respond to reporters questions about Gingrich by saying that if Newt ran for the Republican for the Republican presidential nomination, he would endorse him.

With 29 states now controlled by Republican governors, they will all play pivotal roles in the Republican presidential nominating process. Some like Christie though may play a bigger role than others.

New Polls in Iowa and New Hampshire Make Nothing Very Clear

Two new Strategic National polls offer results from Iowa and New Hampshire that mirror other similar surveys.

Of 410 Iowans who are described as typical caucus voters, former Governor Mike Huckabee is ahead of his closest possible rival, Mitt Romney, by 9.02%.

Complete poll results were as follows:

1. Mike Huckabee 27.56%
2. Mitt Romney 18.54%
3. Undecided 17.56%
4. Sarah Palin 12.44%
5. Newt Gingrich 12.20%
6. Tim Pawlenty 4.39%
7. Michele Bachmann 3.66%
8. John Thune 1.95%
9. Rick Santorum 0.98%
10. Other/Undecided 0.49%
11. Haley Barbour 0.24%

In New Hampshire a random sample of 940 Republican primary voters offered a result that was almost as equally lopsided between the first and second place finishers as Iowa’s results were, but here it is Romney who takes the lead. The New Hampshire poll played out like this:

1. Mitt Romney 33.51%
2. Mike Huckabee 13.83%
3. Sarah Palin 12.77%
4. Newt Gingrich 8.62%
5. Tim Pawlenty 5.21%
6. Mitch Daniels 1.60%
7. Rick Santorum 1.28%
8. Haley Barbour 0.96%
9. John Thune 0.21%
10. Other/Undecided 22.02%

Both polls do little more than confirm what we already knew. What we don’t know though is who Iowa and New Hampshire voters will actually be splitting their votes between when it is time to vote and caucus. While we are more than certain that Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty will be running, and pretty sure people like Fred Karger and Rick Santorum are running, we do not know with any certainty if Mike Huckabee or any of the other often mentioned names are running. Furthermore, given the countless number of variables, including who will or wont be in the race and the great potential that the campaigns of many potential candidates have, it would be naive to assume that anyone who is a frontrunner at this moment, will be the winner a year from now.

However, when it comes to New Hampshire and Iowa and Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, a combination of name recognition from their 2008 presidential runs and demographics, Romney and Huckabee are where they should be in New Hampshire and Iowa and are naturals to win those state respectively.

If they did win in these tow states, the Republican presidential nomination contest is likely to be wide open well into the primary and caucus season.

Following Iowa and New Hampshire are Nevada and South Carolina. Here too a split decision is as natural as it is in the results of Iowa and New Hampshire. Demographics and established name recognition make Nevada a natural for Romney to win and South Carolina a natural for Huckabee to take. Of course with South Carolina being more of a sign of how the South goes than Nevada is of the way the West goes, Huckabee’s win in South Carolina would put him in a much better position for him than Romney.

South Carolina is where Romney has to draw his wall of fire. It is where he has to establish the “Big Mo” that George H. W. Bush thought he had behind him in the 1980 primaries against Ronald Reagan.

Of course as noted in previous White House 2012 posts, if enough candidates who are attractive to the evangelical vote, jump into the race, Romney could be the beneficiary and have the chance to walk right up the middle.

For now though, it really is too early to base any wagers on any of these polls. None of the potential candidates campaigns can be underestimated and there are so many possible players at the moment that it is too difficult to predict which way any one demographic or state will fall.

If Newt Gingrich were to run, not only will his command of the issues be undeniably impressive, but between the unique and numerous ideas he brings to the table, combined with a personality that will surprise many and the ability to reshape his image, he could quickly become an appealing figure to many, including evangelicals and TEA Party energized people.

If Sarah Palin were to run, her ability to campaign in a way that can broaden her base should not be underestimated and given the enthusiastic support that she already has from a loyal base of voters, such an expansion of her base could effect the primaries and caucuses profoundly.

But many other names also have the potential to establish powerfully effective campaigns that can attract the attention and support of any combination of influential wings of the G.O.P.. Texas Governor Rick Perry is building a solid foundation for a possible campaign that highlights states rights which appeals to TEA Party priorities. He has also built a record around anti-abortion measures and other social issues that are attractive to evangelicals and social conservatives. And on economic issues, his tax cuts, spending cuts and jobs record in the Lone Star State, appeal to all wings of the Republican Party.

Indiana’s Mitch Daniel’s is another figure whom could take the Party by storm. His American Heartland appeal and economic prowess will shine brighter than most. The entry of Mississippi’s Haley Barbour could quickly round up a large portion of the G.O.P. inner circle, raise oodles of money, count on many favors owed to him, significantly coalesce Southern support and dilute Huckabee’s Southern strength, while also surprising people with his own strategic abilities and appeal to conservatives in all four corners of the country.

Senator John Thune of South Dakota will be force to a contend with if he runs. While the addition of his name in to the field may not initially turn the race on its ear, he will quickly gain steam. Then there are other names like Rick Santorum and Mike Pence. All of these names will sharply divide the conservative vote, thereby give people like Tim Pawlenty, as well as Mitt Romney and maybe even Rudy Giuliani a better shot at racking high delegate counts.

And through it all may also be the likes of libertarians Ron Paul and former new Mexico Governor Gary Johnson as well as those dark horse candidates, such as Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, and maybe even Donald Trump.

Right now, all that we can be sure of is that while some names like Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and outsider Fred Karger have all but made their campaigns official, everyone else is watching what each of the other names are doing. And until people like Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, John Thune and Sarah Palin, make up their minds, people like Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Jon Huntsman and more, will be waiting to make up their own minds.

Romney Leads in Latest Poll. Palin and Huckabee Follow Close Behind

A new national survey of likely Republican primary voters, taken by Rasmussen, gives former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney a slight but encouraging lead over other potential rivals for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

1. Mitt Romney -24%
2. Sarah Palin -19%
3. Mike Huckabee -17%.
4. Newt Gingrich -11%
5. Tim Pawlenty -6%
6. Ron Paul -4%
7. Mitch Daniels -3%
8. Other -6%
9. Undecided -10%

The poll was taken among a pool of Republican and Independents who are likely to vote in the Republican primaries and caucuses. According to Rasmussen, there is little if any differences of opinion about the candidates among women and female voters but of those who consider themselves a part of the TEA Party movement, Sarah Palin is preferred by 28%.

A further breakdown indicates that Romney is the preferred choice of 32% of those who consider themselves TEA Party members, and leads among married and unmarried primary voters. Among those who consider themselves very conservative, Romney, Palin and Huckabee are about evenly split, while those who are self-described as somewhat conservative and moderate/liberal, largely prefer Romney. Romney also leads among Protestants, Catholics and other religions, with the exception of evangelical Christians.Their preference is evenly split between Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin.

Another notable result of the poll is Ron Pauls low, single digit numbers. While Paul has a persistent, loyal band of followers, he continues to fail to broaden that base of support in a way that translates in to greater numbers at the voting booth.And if people like Palin run, as well as people like libertarian style former Republican New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, radio talk show host and Godfather Pizza CEO Herman Cain, along with several others, the same appealing message and thinking that Ron Paul offers may come from several different quarters and further hamper his ability to increase his base of support.

Meanwhile, Romney seems to have a slight advantage at the moment but it is an advantage that can quickly slip away if he does not sure up his conservative credentials and better connect with the TEA Party movement.

Mitt Romney’s TEA Problem

A mixed message came out of the recent straw poll of New Hampshire Republican Party power players. While Romney won the poll and defeated a field of more than 20 names by surpassing his closest rival by as much as 24%, the same people who voted in that poll also elected a TEA Party candidate as the Chairman of the New Hampshire G.O.P.. The election of TEA Party backed Jack Kimball over the establishment candidate was a clear signal that conservative outsiders were increasing their influence and beginning to dominate over moderate political insiders.

The initial wins of Romney in the straw poll and Jack Kimball in the election for Party chair, may on the surface seem related and an indication that the former Governor of Massachusetts is fairing well among TEA Party voters. However a closer look reveals that only a bit more than half of those who voted for Kimball in the election for Chairman, voted in the straw poll. And of those with TEA Party sentiments, their vote was divided between a number of favorites, including second place finisher Ron Paul, fourth place finisher Sarah Palin, followed by Michelle Bachmann-5th place, Jim DeMInt-6^th place, Herman Cain-7^th place, and arguably Gary Johnson-16^th place. Their combined total percentage was one point shy of Mitt Romneys 35% share of the vote.

This begs the question, if the TEA Party got behind one candidate, could they pick the winner of the New Hampshire presidential primary, just as they did the chairman of the New Hampshire Republican State Party?

This is a question which Mitt Romney must look at closely. Up to now, Romney has seemingly had a bad taste for TEA Party politics.

The Boston Globe reports that Mitt Romney has kept Tea Party activists at arms length. And while some like Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum and even Haley Barbour seem to be going out of their way to court influential TEA Party leaders, the chairman of New Hampshires TEA Party influenced Republican Liberty Caucus, Andrew Hemingway, claims Romney for the most part is inaccessible,” and adds. Pawlenty, I could call him right now and say, Let’s have coffee.’ ”

An advisor to Romney suggested that Romneys issues are the TEA Partys issues when told the Boston Globes Matt Viser I would hope the kind of issues the Tea Party cares about are issues he can address and will address,”.

The answer is a sensible one but it does not address the politics behind the politics. Part of that game is perception. In fact politics is all about perception and currently, in this atmosphere of pro anti-establishment sentiments, Mitt Romney is rapidly being perceived as an establishment candidate, a position that will not be to his benefit in the long run.

By all rights, Mitt Romney should be a clear frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012. In many aspects he is, but only by the most tentative of definitions. Part of the reason for that is distrust among conservatives who are not convinced that his right-to-life conversion from his pro-choice stance is genuine and another part is widespread dissatisfaction with the fact that as Governor of Massachusetts, Romney created a state version of Obamacare before Obamacare ever came to fruition. This has Romney entering the race for the Republican nomination as a flip-flopping, big government Republican. Is that an accurate description? In truth, it isnt. But unless Mitt Romney embraces the strongest elements of the thriving, decisive, small government TEA Party wing of the G.O.P., he will not have a snowballs chance in hell of changing that perception.

Romney could be trying to keep the TEA Party at arms length because he fears that being linked too closely to them will hurt his chances in the general election. For that reason he could be wanting to distinguish himself from others like Sarah Palin, who risk being perceived as too extreme. Rudy Giuliani recently revealed that as his own strategy in a potential bid for the G.O.P. nomination. Romney could also be hoping that just as was the case in the New Hampshire straw poll, maybe a crowded field of TEA Party favorites like Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Sarah Palin, and others, could split the TEA movement vote and allow him to walk right up the middle.

If that is his strategy, he needs to plot a new one.

He should take a lesson from John McCains failed campaign and realize that the same people whoRomney is keeping at a distance, are the same people who were not thrilled by John McCain as our nominee and the same people who sat on their hands in the general election. He should also realize that for many Republicans, Sarah Palin was the only thing that energized McCains candidacy. In other words, Romney can not become President without embracing the TEA movement and without the TEA movement embracing him.

It’s time to talk TEA Mitt. You may not want to start campaigning too early, but you have a lot of repairs to make before you let the train leave the station and now is as good a time as any to start fixing them.

Romney Wins New Hampshire Straw Poll

At a meeting of New Hampshires State Republican Committee, a straw poll sponsored by WMUR-TV and ABC, found former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney a big winner. (see poll results below)

Among a field of more than 21 names, Romney polled 35%, a 24% lead over his nearest opponent, Ron Paul, whose second place showing was a bit of a surprise.

Out of 493 state committee members 429 members showed up but only 273 participated in the straw poll. Still, the results of this poll indicate that Romney has a large pool of favorability among the activists within the Party who are crucial to a campaigns organizational ability and ground game in New Hampshires Republican Presidential Primary. Those voting in the poll are for the most part, the leaders of the local GOP organizations within the state.

The main purpose of the state committee meeting was to elect a new Republican State Chairman to replace the retiring chair, John Sununu. The hotly contested race pitted the establishment of the Party against TEA Party insurgents. Sununu and the establishment supported Juliana Bergeron while a loose coalition of TEA Party members and libertarians supported businessman Jack Kimball. Kimball won by 23 votes.

The results of the race for State Party Chair made the results of the presidential straw poll even more interesting than usual. By all rights Romney should have won. New Hampshire is in his own backyard and he has been making his presence in the state quite well known for more than two years now. But the fact that he polled so far ahead of his nearest possible rival, in a crowd of voters that were largely professing anti-establishment sentiments and elected a TEA Party backed Chairman, is an indication that Romney may be more viable among TEA Party voters than some have thought.

Supporters of Romneys opponents downplayed the poll results and even suggested that Romney did not do as well as should have. But the result most striking here was Mike Huckabees 12^th place showing. In the 2008 primary, both Romney and Huckabee were beaten by John McCain. McCain pulled 38% to Romneys 32% and Huckabees 11%. This time around, at least among the states activist Republicans, Tim Pawlenty snatched third place with 8% and Huckabee was beaten by Atlanta Radio Talk Show host Herman Cain and lumped together with Newt Gingrich, Chris Christie, Rick Santorum and Mitch Daniels and Mike Pence. All polled 3%.

Like Romneys first place showing, Tim Pawlentys third place showing was an encouraging sign that his recent level of high activity is helping gain traction in Granite States important early primary. As for Ron Paul, his second place showing is a bit deceiving. While it puts him at the head of the pack, the 11% of the vote that got him there, is representative of his extremely dedicated base. But it is also representative of the number he usually peaks out at, as he fails to expand significantly expand his base.

With exception of a small contingency of Santorum, Pawlenty, and Cain supporters who braved the cold and snow to hand out leaflets and Dunkin Donuts munchkins, none of the other campaigns had a presence at the event. Most straw polls usually feature aggressive campaigning before the ballots are passed out. But this WMUR-ABC poll was announced only a few days in advance, giving the campaigns little time to coordinate a push among the state committeemen voting in the contest.

Complete Poll Results:

1. Mitt Romney Former Massachusetts Governor 35%
2. Ron Paul Texas Congressman 11%
3. Tim Pawlenty Former Minnesota Governor 8%
4. Sarah Palin Former Alaska Governor, 2008 GOP Vice Presidential Nominee 7%
5. Michele Bachmann Minnesota Congresswoman 5%
6. Jim DeMint South Carolina Senator 5%
7. Herman Cain Tea Party Speaker & Former C.E.O. 4%
8. Chris Christie New Jersey Governor 3%
9. Rick Santorum Former Pennsylvania Senator 3%
10. Mitch Daniels Indiana Governor 3%
11. Newt Gingrich Former U.S. House Speaker 3%
12. Mike Huckabee Former Arkansas Governor 3%
13. Mike Pence Indiana Congressman 3%
14. Rudy Giuliani Former New York City Mayor 2%
15. Judd Gregg Former NH Senator 2%
16. Gary Johnson Former New Mexico Governor 2%
17. Other 2%
18. Donald Trump Real Estate Mogul 1%
19. Haley Barbour Mississippi Governor 1%
20. Jon Huntsman Jr. U.S. Ambassador to China 0%
21. John Thune South Dakota Senator 0%

Huckabee Responds to His Lead in New Polls of GOP Presidential Candidates

After the results of an ABC News poll puts Mike Huckabee at the head of the evolving Republican presidential field, the Former Arkansas Governor tells Fox News Megyn Kelly that it is flattering to be in that position but makes it clear that he is not giving up his day jobs because of it anytime soon.

Huckabee reminds people that around this time in the last presidential election cycle, Hillary Clinton and Rudy Clinton were out in front and on track to win their Parties nominations.

He also pointed out that President Obama will be a lot harder to beat this time around because he will have a billion dollars and all the powers of incumbency. Another reason Huckabee gives for not putting much weight behind these poll numbers is what he describes the road to the Republican nomination as one that will be a demolition derby that will have the nominee coming out bruised, beaten and bleeding, and then have 4 months to restore their image.

Aside from stating that the poll demonstrates that the American people are intelligent, the former winner of Iowas 2008 Republican presidential caucus gave no indication of giving another go at it in 2012 as he made clear he is comfortable with the money he is making in his current endeavors.

The ABC News/Washington Posthas Mike Huckabee with19 percentfollowed by Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney with 17 percent.The more accurate which is derived at by the polling of only registered voters puts Huckabee at 20 percent, Romney at 18, and Palin at 16.

Click here for the question and full results.

In New Hampshire, Romney’s Loss is Santorum’s Gain

Claira Monier

Confirming Mitt Romney’s very tentative hold on to frontrunner status in the evolving Republican president field, is the naming of Claira Monier as former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum’s New Hampshire political action committee chair.

Monier, a veteran of New Hampshire political campaigns, endorsed Mitt Romney in 2008.

But in 2012, Romney’s loss is a big gain for Santorum. Monier is the widow of former state Senate president and legendary New Hampshire conservative, Robert Monier. Her resume includes such positions as being an aide to former Gov. Meldrim Thomson, a regional administrator for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services in the Reagan administration and a 20 year stint as executive director of the New Hampshire Housing Finance Authority. She also chaired U.S. Senator Judd Gregg’ss commissions on Health Care Costs and Availability and is the past Chair of the Manchester Chapter of the American Red Cross. In , Monier was named the 2004 Citizen of the Year award from the Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce.

Former Senator Santorum declared that Claira Monier’s “roots in the Granite State run deep, and there is no doubt her connection to many grassroots activists and party leaders will be a great asset as I can continue to consider a run for President.”

In her voluntary role as Chairwoman of Santorum’s America’s Foundation for New Hampshire PAC, Monier will be most responsible for recruiting other volunteers and grass root activists to Santorum’s likely presidential campaign. The job is an extremely one in the big scheme of the small state’s political game. In the Granite State’s first in the nation primary, the personal touch and ground game plays a much more critical role in campaigns than it does in states of vastly larger populations. For Santorum, Claira Monier’s “deep roots help add the type of personal touch will need in New Hampshire.

In a statement to the press, Monier told reporters that Santorum’s “conservative message is resonating well in New Hampshire. He has demonstrated a deep understanding of the many challenges our country faces, both domestically and internationally, and I believe he has the right message for our state and our country at this critical time.”

While Claira Monier’s change of heart from Romney to Santorum is a boost for Santorum, it is a negative sign for Romney, who needs to show his supporting solidifying and growing, not shrinking. While Romney has developed a very substantial support system in the state which neighbor’s Massachusetts, the one that Romney governed, losing an endorsement like Monier’s to a first time presidential candidate like Rick Santorum shows signs of weakness in Romney’s own candidacy. Weighing him down the most is his Massachusetts health care plan that is often compared to Obamacare.

As for Rick Santorum, he is not showing any organizational weakness in the Live Free or Die state. Last week he became one of the few potential Republican presidential candidates to hire some top level, paid staffers when he announced that Mike Biundo will serve as the State Director for Santorum’s political action committee. Biundo has served as a senior advisor, campaign manager and grassroots director to numerous statewide and congressional campaigns, including Congressman Frank Guinta’s 2010 victory over incumbent Carol Shea-Porter.

For someone who is supposedly still in the thinking stageof a run for president, Santorum is not wasting anytime and insuring that he hits the ground running. As for Mitt Romney, he might just be limping as he gets to the starting line.