Newt Wins, on to Florida

With Perry gone and Newt’s second resurrection complete, non-Romney supporters seem to have found their man in Newt.  I predicted Santorum would probably pull a Huckabee and win in Iowa.  I also predicted Romney would easily win New Hampshire.  South Carolina was the setup for the defining moment in this race scheduled for January 31 in Florida.  Had Romney won South Carolina, he would nearly have Florida locked up.  Instead, Romney will be going for the fight of his life again in Florida.  He has one week to show South Carolina is a fluke, because if Newt Gingrich can come back and beat Romney so handily in South Carolina based solely on a two strong debate performances, Romney has already lost the electability argument.  Newt swept all but two counties.

Liabilities for Newt include a strong negative campaign against him in Florida which is already underway.  Also, Santorum may not realize it, but he is in danger of doing to Newt what Huckabee did to Romney in 2008.  Newt was right, Santorum should get out of the race.  However, one thing is clear: Romney is not breaking out of his support base and he has fewer opponents to split the remaining votes.  If Santorum were to drop out of the race, Romney may as well join him.

Floridians watch a lot of TV.  They also are concerned with electability.  I will repeat my prediction that the key in the race for Florida will be the January 27th debate in Jacksonville Florida.  If Newt does well in that debate, the momentum from South Carolina will carry him.  If Newt wins Florida, it will be very difficult for Romney to make a comeback.  If Newt loses in Florida, then the assessment that non-Romney supporters need to make is what Newt plus Santorum’s votes combined would have been.

Oh, and one last parting thought.  The late breaking rumor is that Jeb Bush, the most popular Florida governor in decades, is choosing to stay neutral.  Most had been expecting him to endorse Romney.  I think Jeb sees the writing on the wall.

For Huntsman, Any Bush is Better Than No Bush at All

George P. (Jeb Bush, Jr.)

Bookmark and Share   In what was rolled at by Jon Huntsman’s campaign as a “major” announcement in Florida, George Prescott Gallo Bush, today announced that he was formally endorsing Jon Huntsman for President and joining the campaign as it’s GenH Chairman. If you’re wondering which Bush is George Prescott Gallo Bush, you are also probably wondering why Huntsman considered this to be a major announcement.

The Bush we are talking about is commonly referred to as George P.  or Jeb Bush, Jr. and he already unofficially endorsed Huntsman..

Jeb P. is the oldest son of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. and Columba Garnica Gallo, a naturalized U.S. citizen from Mexico. He is one of the grandchildren that former President George H. W. Bush once infamously referred to as one of the “brown ones”.

If all of this has confused you as to which George and which Jeb is who, great!. That is exactly what Jon Huntsman is hoping for. All he really wants is for Republicans to know that a Bush endorsed him and hopefully when they connect the Florida announcement to a Bush, they assume it is the former Governor that endorsed him, not necessarily the son of the former Governor.

While Jeb, jr, is an admirable and more than respectable young man, his endorsement really does not carry much weight. But from Huntsman’s perspective, any Bush is better than no Bush. It is also the most notable, positive endorsement that Huntsman can get out of Florida. The popular rising star from the state, newly elected Senator Marco Rubio, has maintained that he is remaining neutral in the G.O.P. nomination contest. JGeorge P’s father, former Governor Jeb Bush, probably one of the most celebrated Bush’s of all in Republican circles at the moment, is unlikely to put his neck out for anyone right now, and Florida’s incumbent Governor, Rick Scott, is not the most popular figure in the Sunshine State at the moment. So Jeb P, Jr. is as close to major as Huntsman can get.

Still, if used right, the endorsement can get some mileage. Some.

If Jeb, Jr. is used specifically to get through to Florida’s youth vote and the conservative Hispanic population, of which there is a substantial one, then Huntsman’s campaign could at least play a factor in the Florida presidential primary. In any early realease of his announcement, in addition to endorsing Huntsman for President, Jeb P. declared:

“I will join Gov. Huntsman to formally endorse his candidacy, and accept a role as National Chairman of GenH – the campaign’s youth and young professionals outreach program. I will be joined by fellow Floridian Ana Navarro who will join the campaign as National Hispanic Chairperson.”

Currently Huntsman’s campaign is going nowhere. His numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire are dismal and stagnant. This does not mean that he can’t eventually get some traction but it does look like Huntsman is expecting not to get any traction any time soon. The focus on Jeb P. endorsement in Florida is probably a sign that Huntsman is prepared to surrender Iowa to Michele Bachmann, New Hampshire to Mitt Romney, South Carolina to either one of them and then to finally claim some ground in Florida.

That was the same strategy tried by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and today, he is still former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. So I do not expect much to be different for Jon Huntsman but I guess any strategy is better than no strate.

See here  for the complete text of Jeb P’s announcemnt.

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Despite Pleas for Him to Run, Jeb Bush Says the Door is Firmly Closed

Bookmark and Share Recently, conservatives looking for a hero have been pushing the name of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush as a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. From a Senator Jim DeMint to a column in National Review and Michael Reagan at a Reagan Day dinner covered here by White House 2012, many politicos understand that Jeb Bush offers a true conservative agenda and the ability to articulate it in a way that can have broad appeal, even among Hispanic and Latinos, groups which Jeb has been making inroads to as he acknowledges the importance of their vote.

Those conservatives who have actually looked to Jeb Bush in 2012, happen to be pretty open minded. They all realize the obvious problem with the family name connected to Jeb. They understand that the American electorate has become Bush weary. But they also understand that given the chance to address voters, Jeb would have the ability to overcome his family name. They also realize that Jeb is the most truly conservative member of the Bush family. He is an ideas man with a proven record in Florida.

Rich Lowry outlined 8 solid reasons in support of a Jeb Bush presidential candidacy. And it is my belief that Jeb Bush would be a solid candidate and amazing President. But today, after a rush of calls for him to enter the race, Jeb responded to an email sent to him by Politicos Jonathon Martin which asked if the door remained firmly shut on a White House campaign next year. To which Jeb wrote “Yes,”.

While many willprobablylike the fact that Jeb Bush wont run in 2012, the truth is that his failure to enter the race is our loss and the fact that his name makes many view him as damaged goods is a shame. While it is discomforting to create the impression that whenever the G.O.P. needs a leader they turn to a royal family-like member of the Bush clan, putting all the aesthetics aside and just looking at the issues, Jeb Bush is perfect for Republicans to tackle those issues with. But who knows? Jeb is easily able to be considered a frontrunner for the nomination in 2016 or even 2020, when the Bush name is less controversial.

Of course, I predict that if the next President is a Republican, Jeb Bush will be named Secretary of Education and while I would prefer that the department be eliminated, if it isnt, Jeb would be one of the best for that job. Education has been an issue he has worked hard on and continues to successfully reform for the better in the nation.

Meanwhile, with this latest confirmation of Jeb’s 2012 intenton, Whiet House 2012 will take him at his word. Sincehe has been a viablepossible constender to considerin this race, we will not remove him from the site, but we will take note of the fact that he is out of the running.

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