Trunkline 2012: Thursday’s News from the Race for the White House – 9/29/11

Bookmark and Share    Today the campaign trail takes us to an invitation to Morgan Freeman from the TEA Party, to the reality of President Obama’s numbers and looks into who is benefiting from Rick Perry’s drop in the polls, Michele Bachmann’s sermon at Liberty University, Romney’s lead in Florida, a statement from the Party chairmen of disgruntled Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina Republicans, and some opinions on why Romney will win the nomination and how Perry can win the nomination.

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Conflicts With the GOP Presidential Primary and Caucus Calendar Slated to Come to A Head this Saturday

Bookmark and Share     The Republican National Committee has told states that they must set the dates for their presidential primaries or caucuses by this Saturday, October 1st.

That deadline will at least begin to clarify the calendar for the Republican presidential nominating contests.  Up to now, attempting to clarify the primary and caucus schedule has been an extremely messy job and the states which have traditionally held the first contests have been in a state of electoral flux.  However at least three of those four states, Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, have agreed to work together and change their datesaccordingly and ensure that they remain the first states to select a presidential nominee.

Much of the problem was created by Florida which wants to ensure that as the fourth most populus state in the nation, they have significant sway in the nomination process. With that intention in mind, despite the RNC’s rule that only Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina can hold nominating contests before March 6th of 2012, Florida set their primary for January 31st.   Their bold move has subsequently been followed by several other states who would like to have a an early impact on the nomination process. So now Coloradoo, Georgia, Minnesota, Missouri, and North Dakota are holding their presidential selection events on February 7th, 2012.  All of this has threatened to deny the traditional early states their normal role.    But Iowa Republican Party Chairman Matt Strawn recently assured his state’s voters that in conjunction with New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, Iowa will likely change its current  February 6th date to another one which will allow the other states to have the second, third, and fourth contest in the nation that RNC rules call for .

No one is saying what those dates are.  But for several months now, White House 2012 has posted a preliminary schedule which I believe reflects the dates that will ultimately be settled upon for the first ten primary and caucus contests.  Unfortunately I don’t see Nevada being one of the first four  though.  From what I have been able to ascertain, Nevada has not made any moves to change it’s caucus date since having done so already earlier in te year.

This is how White House 2012 predicts the early calendar fall in to place;

Monday, January 9th –   Iowa

Tuesday, January 17th – New Hampshire

Saturday, January 21st – South Carolina

Tuesday, January 31st –  Florida

Tuesday, February 7th –  Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota

Saturday, February 18th – Nevada

This relatively early calendar is still not really what Iowa or New Hampshire want.  These dates are pretty close to the holidays and much of the time leading up to those contests will be spent focussing on holiday festivities, not necessarily politics.  But four years the front loading by other states forced the Iowa Caucuses to be held two days after New Year’s Day.  That was the earliest it was ever held.   It also only left 5 days between their caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.  That gives the individual campaigns little time to pack up and head from Iowa to New Hampshire so that they can give voters in the Granite State, the attention that they have come to expect. The projected White House 2012 calendar allows for the typical 8 days between Iowa and New Hampshire that we have usually seen.

For White House 2012’s complete predicted calendar visit the Election Schedule page here

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Santorum Takes A Big Step Towards an Official Run for President

Bookmark and Share Earlier this evening in an interview with Fox News Greta Van Susteren, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum announced that after visiting 25 states and concentrating on Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, the first four states to hold Republican presidential nominations contests, he is encouraged enough to create a presidential exploratory committee. The purpose of this committee will be to find out whether or not the resources to mount a competitive campaign for the Republican presidential nomination are there.

With a great deal of encouragement from several quarters of the Republican base, Senator Santorum has been buoyed by the reception he and his message are receiving and as he explained, with many other questions answered, the only one remaining is whether or not he will be able to raise enough money to carryhis message over the finish line. Santorum told Van Susteren that in last campaign for the United States Senate he raised over $31 million and 40% of that came from out of state donors. So he is optimistic about what his exploratory committee will find.

There is no word yet as to when Santorum expects to know if he will be able to gather the resources to take his effort to the next stage and declare his candidacy for President.

Two days ago, Mitt Romeny announced that he is setting up an exploratory committee to see if and when he too will run for President. Others who have taken that same step include Minnesota’s former Governor Tim Pawlenty and former Speaker of the HouseNewt Gingrichis anticipating making a similiar announcement soon. On Thursday in New Hampshire, at 9:00 am, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson will beannouncing that he is an official candidate for the Republicanpresidential nomination.By the end of the month Missisppi Governor Haley Barbour and Indiana Governor MitchDaniels have promised to announce their own decision onwhether or not they willtake any steps to move closer to a run for the White House. The only otherRepublican contender who has already made his candidacy official is FredKarger a political consultant and gay activists fromCalifornia.

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White House 2012 Joins The Steve Wark In The Morning Show

Bookmark and ShareWhite House 2012,editor-in-chief Anthony Del Pellegrino (aka:Kempite), will be a guest on The Steve Wark in the Morning Show, KMZQ, AM670, “Nevada’s number 1 station for talk”, on:

Monday, January 3rd, 2011, at 8:00 am (PST), 11:00 am (EST).

The discusssion will range from the shaping Republican presidential race to the top freshmen legislators to look out for in the soon to be sworn in 112th Congress.

Join in the discusion. Call in at 702-866-6700

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The Season of Sarah

If you are a C-Span junkie like me, then tonight was a great night.  Palin backed TEA Party Candidate Christine O’Donnell gave a speech at the Family Research Counsel’s Values Voter Summit, fresh off a surprise upset win in Delaware.  Next up, cameras cut to Iowa for Sarah Palin’s keynote speech at the annual Ronald Reagan dinner.  The Values Voter Summit straw poll results will be released this weekend and Palin may receive higher marks than we would have expected even a week ago.

There is no question the momentum is on her side.  While the mainstream still does not like Palin, primary victories in Alaska, Kentucky, Nevada, New York, and Delaware have earned her the respect even mainstream conservatives had previously refused to give.  Of course, she has made some odd enemies along the way, including possibly Karl Rove and Charles Krauthhammer who are not yet believers.  November will be the ultimate testing ground.

Sarah Palin goes to Iowa

So with this recent success, and a much more polished presentation, is Palin ready to take another shot at the big time?  She indicated to Fox News that she is.  Most candidates don’t let the cat out of the bag two years ahead of time, but Palin said in a recent Fox News interview that, “If the American people were to be ready for someone who is willing to shake it up, and willing to get back to time-tested truths, and help lead our country towards a more prosperous and safe future and if they happen to think I was the one, if it were best for my family and for our country, of course I would give it a shot.”

These may seem like a lot of caveats, but for a potential candidacy statement two years before the election it is significant.  November will be the huge test to see if conservative primary victories can translate into conservative general election victories.  After that, we will have to see if Palin can keep Americans engaged without causing fatigue.  One thing is for sure, as she racks up the conservative victories and the left continues to flounder, Palin is looking less like a right wing radical and more like a mainstream possibility.

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