Romney Increases Lead in White House 2012 Electoral College Projection

   Bookmark and Share In what is now a verifiable trend, White House 2012’s newest Electoral College projection has increased the size of Mitt Romney’s lead in the Electoral College over President Obama for the third time in a row.  In the previous projection, after forecasting Ohio for Romney for the first time, New Hampshire and Nevada where switched from Romney to Obama.  This latest forecast now places both of those states back in Mitt Romney’s column, increasing Romney’s lead in the Electoral College by a combined total of 10 electors.  This now puts Romney’s Electoral College count at 291 to the President’s 247.

According to the White House 2012 formula, Nevada and New Hampshire are still very competitive and not solidly in Romney’s camp.  The same goes for Iowa and Ohio where WH12 considers the Romney-Ryan ticket to be currently holding a slim but still growing lead. But the most significant development in the latest forecast model is that the apparent bounce Romney received in the wake of his first debate, is now proving to be a definite trend.  More importantly, it is a trend that is revealing itself to be so pronounced that it has forced White House 2012 to now add three more states to our battleground map… Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

That is a dramatic development. Especially in the case of Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania is to Barack Obama what Ohio is to Mitt Romney.  Without Pennsylvania solidly in the Obama-Biden column, the Democrat ticket finds itself with significantly fewer paths to victory in the Electoral College.  This is a switch from the narrative that had defined Romney’s need to win Ohio.  No Republican has ever won the White House without it.   If Romney can’t win Ohio, he will find significantly fewer ways to accumulate the 270 electors needed to win.  White House 2012 has however stipulated that we are sure Romney can win without Ohio and in fact originally projected him to do so.  But recently polling and other factors have now turned the tables and are forcing the President to have to focus us on his m.

While White House 2012 still projects Pennsylvania to go for the President, if current trends continue, that can quickly change.  In the meantime White House 2012 is forced to now make Pennsylvania a battleground state and in what is turning out to be continued trend that is putting the President’s campaign in a more defensive posture when it comes to the electoral map, White House 2012 has also moved Wisconsin and Michigan to battleground status.

Of these three new battlegrounds, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are most profound.

Without them, President Obama must win Ohio and various combinations of other states that include such states as Florida, Virginia, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and/or Colorado.

While many factors will continue to change future projections, the analysis behind this forecast is most notable for the conclusion that at the moment, the Romney-Ryan ticket is turning the tables in the Electoral College and forcing the Obama-Biden ticket to take a more defensive electoral strategy.  It is forcing the Obama campaign to spend time and much needed resources and money in state’s that at this point in time, they had hoped were in the bag.  Meanwhile, the need to reinforce his standing in places like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and even Michigan, is taking time and money away from President Obama’s ability to work on winning other important states like Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa, and Colorado.

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Inevitabilty Begins To Doom the Hopes of Romney’s Rivals

Bookmark and Share    A recent Gallup poll would seem to indicate that a perceived sense of  inevitability concerning Mitt Romney’s winning the Republican presidential nomination  is beginning to cast a shadow over the rest of the Republican field of candidates.

The poll shows that Romney is finally breaking out of the mid twenty range of support that he has consistently been mired in, has broken the 30% range and in a field of four other major candidates, is now making a run for the 35% mark. 

Normally, I put little weight in national polls, when the winner is determined on a state by state basis.  However, in a larger sense, this poll would seem to be a sign that Republicans are beginning to resign themselves to a sense of inevitability surrounding the nomination of Mitt Romney.  It is a perception which became unavoidable after Romney won both Iowa and New Hampshire and was only boosted by reports of Romney’s increasing lead in the soon to be hed third nomination contest of South Carolina.

According to Galllup:

“Mitt Romney is now the only candidate that a majority of conservative and moderate/liberal Republicans nationwide see as an acceptable GOP nominee for president. Conservative Republicans are more likely to say this about Romney than about either Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum.”
 
If that is accurate, it would be a pleasantly surprising sign that if Romney does become the nominee, establishing Party unity behind him may not be quite as difficult as once suspected. 
 
Gallup also finds that while Romney is consolidating support behind him for the nomination, with exception of Ron Paul, Romney’s remaining rivals are losing support.  The candidate trending down worst of al is Newt Gingrich.  Ron Paul is reamining staedy as he ne neither gains or loses support.
 
 
While this is a good sign, it should not be enough to make Mitt feel too comfortable.  There is still a fair chance that the increasing likelihood of a Romney nomination can finally inspire dissatisfied Republicans, fed up conservatives, and ticked off TEA movement activists to unite solidly behind one clear alternative to Mitt Romney in any number of the states leading up to Super Tuesday. 
 
But given the terrain between now and then, and the financial resources required to aggressively contest those states, Romney still holds a significant advantage with a strong and now growing base of support in most all the upcoming contests.  That schedule is as follows.

Saturday, January 21st: – South Carolina 50 25 delegates

Tuesday, January 31st; – Florida99 50 delegates

Saturday, February 4th – Nevada  23 delegates, Maine24 delegates

Tuesday, February 7th; – Colorado – 36 delegates, Minnesota – 40 delegates, Missouri -53 delegates

Tuesday, February 28th;  – Arizona 58 24 delegates, Michigan –  59 30 delegates

Saturday, March 3rd; – Washington – 43 delegates

Tuesday, March 6th;  (Super Tuesday)- Alaska – 27  delegates, Georgia – 75 delegates, Massachusetts – 41 delegates, North Dakota– 28 delegates, Idaho – 24 of 29 delegates, Oklahoma – 43 delegates, Tennessee – 58 delegates, Texas – 152 delegates, Virginia – 49 delegates, Vermont – 17  delegates, Wyoming29 delegates

While the race is certainly not over and Romney can’t take anything for granted, he must now also begin to lay the groundwork for the next stage of this election cycle.  That would incude  uniting the many factions of the Party and to inspire them all.  If this pol as a good indication of how things are realy going, it woiuld seem that Mitt needs to thank President for being the reason why Republicans are seemingy preapared to unite behind Mitt.  But that will still leave Romney with the need to inspire thise whoa re willing to support him over Barack Obama.  It now looks like that may be the toughest challenge ahead for Mitt.

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If It Were Up To Republicans, Ron Paul Would Still Be a Second Tier Candidate

Bookmark and Share   Ron Paul’s recent surge to the front of the pack certainly makes this an exciting time for those who subscribe to his rhetoric and feel that his lack of actual accomplishments makes him an ideal President.  It’s also an exciting time for those who are simply fed up and looking for a way to register a significant protest vote against the system ans politics in general.  But for true conservative Republicans, Paul’s rise in recent Iowa polling is little more than a means of assuring the reelection of President Barack Obama and if left up to them, Ron Paul would still be lumped together with names like Jon Huntsman, Buddy Roemer, and Michele Bachmann in the bottom third of the Republican presidential field.

However, in states like Iowa, and even New Hampshire, the Republican presidential nominee is not chosen just by Republicans.

According to state Party rules governing the Iowa Caucus and several other state nominating contests, only registered Republicans in the state of Iowa can participate in the Republican caucus but individuals registered as Independents or affiliated with other parties, may switch their Party affiliation at the caucus site and cast their vote for the Republican candidate of their choice.  In other words, a non-affiliated voter or a liberal Democrat can walk in out of the snow, change their Party registration,  and vote for Ron Paul.

For some, the opportunity for people of any political affiliation to vote in a partisan primary or caucus is a good thing, and seems logical, but as a proud partisan conservative Republican, I can tell you that it is not.

For the record, while I am an American first and foremost, I must admit that I am a proud and devout, partisan conservative Republican.  My committment to the Party is based on ideology, and I am often not the most politically popular person in the Party because I am often at at odds with many of  its leaders who I believe spend most of their time playing politics and forsaking our conservative based ideology for political expediency.

That stated, I defend my ideological partisanship on the grounds that it is my deep conviction that ultimately, the conservative-Republican ideology is the best thing for America.  So my political partisanship goes hand in hand with my love of country and I do not separate the two.  That’s why I have never supported so-called open primary or caucus contests that allow people of opposing ideologies to choose the nominee that represents  my beliefs and Party.

The way I see it, as a conservative, why should I have the ability to pick the liberal nominee?  If  I had the chance to do that in 2008, I would have done my best to make sure that Dennis Kucinich won the Democratic presidential nomination for President.  Kucinich would have been a sure loser for liberals.

I am of the opinion that if Republicans and Democrats, or for that matter Libertarians, are to nominate the candidate that best represents their beliefs and can be the strongest one to represent their Party, then those who subscribe to the ideologies represented by those parties should be responsible for deciding who represents that Party.  In some ways, these open contests make about as much sense as us opening up the general presidential election to the citizens of other nations.  Which by the way, is not so unfathomable when you consider the lengths to which Democrats are trying to go  in with legislative initiatives designed at specifically making  it possible for illegal immigrants to vote.

Now some of you may be saying that I am blowing this all out of proportion.  Some may even suggest that crediting Ron Paul’s predicted success in Iowa to the opportunity for independents and Democrats to vote in their Caucus is overstated.  To them I must ask…………are you that stupid!!?

One need not look very hard to find that my assertion about the effect of independents and Democrats is true.

A recent American Research Group poll of  Iowa voters makes the case that if left up to Republicans, Ron Paul would not be a real contender.

According to ARG, among Republicans who intend to vote in the Iowa Caucus, Mitt Romney leads with 23% and he is followed by Newt Gingrich who comes in at 19%.

As for Ron Paul, strictly among Republicans, he pulls 12% of the vote which leaves him tied with Rick Santorum.

Among Republicans:

  • Mitt Romney 23%
  • Newt Gingrich 19%
  • Rick Santorum 12%
  • Ron Paul 12%
  • Michele Bachmann 9%
  • Rick Perry 8%
  • Jon Huntsman 6%
  • Buddy Roemer 1%
  • Other 1%
  • Undecided 9%

In the same poll, a deeper look at Iowa Republicans that breaks them down along TEA Party lines finds that Ron Paul does a little better among those voters most focussed on a limited and more constitutional government but not by much.   Ron Paul receives a 16% share of the vote from them,  but that is 9% behind Gingrich and 10% behind Mitt Romney.

Among Tea Party Supporters

  • Mitt Romney 26%
  • Newt Gingrich 25%
  • Ron Paul 16%
  • Michele Bachmann 10%
  • Rick Perry 9%
  • Rick Santorum 7%
  • Jon Huntsman 0%
  • Buddy Roemer 0%
  • Other 0%
  • Undecided 7%

In fact, the only segment of Iowa residents who Ron Paul gets a majority of the vote from in the “Republican” Iowa Caucus are Independents.  Among them, Paul polls 30% of the vote, 8% more than Romney, and 18% more than Newt Gingrich.

Among Independents

  • Ron Paul 30%
  • Mitt Romney 22%
  • Newt Gingrich 12%
  • Rick Perry 11%
  • Michele Bachmann 6%
  • Rick Santorum 6%
  • Jon Huntsman 6%
  • Buddy Roemer 0%
  • Other 1%
  • Undecided 9%

If that is not enough to convince you of the undue influence that non-Republican entities are having on the Republican Caucus in Iowa, maybe you will believe it coming from Ron Paul’s own people?

Back in March of 2011, the hero worshippers behind the propaganda based website entitled The Daily Paul, posted a call to arms entitled “2012 Open Primary States: The key to Ron Paul’s Republican Nomination”.  It basically calls upon Pauliacs to sabotage the Republican nomination process and steal the nomination from the Party by asking Democrats and Independents to flood the primaries and caucuses of the 17 specific states that have open primaries which allow Democrats and Independents to vote without even having to register as a Republican.

The article reads;

“We must organize and put the strongest efforts in these states to encourage Democrats and Independents to vote for Ron Paul and capture all the Delegates of these Open Republican Primary States”

By the count of the author behind the plot, winning those states would give Ron Paul 874 of the 1,212 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination.

Fortunately for rational conservatives though, not only is that a substantial number short of the delegates needed, most of the states do not have election laws that allow for opposing parties to easily and blatantly circumvent the democratic process in the general election by sabotaging a Party’s nomination process and leaving them with a nominee who is the weakest possible candidate they could have representing them.

Additional good fortune is the fact that Iowa is one of the few state’s that Ron Paul is actually doing that well in.  Nationally, Ron Paul’s average standing in the polls is half that of Romney and less than half that of Newt Gingrich.  While national polls do not mean much to a process that is based on the collective results of individual state contests, that national average does accurately reflect most state polls.

In the final analysis, while excitement erupts about Ron Paul rising to the top, the truth is that such excitement is based on a lack of any real depth of truth, and thankfully, it is the G.O.P. which will still determine their own nominee.  Even so, I still think it is about time that state parties and their representatives rethink their willingness to allow the political opposition to influence who our own Party’s nominees are.

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Who Would Be a Stronger Candidate Against President Obama? Romney or Gingrich?

Bookmark and Share    Whether people realize it or not, the Iowa Caucuses must be consider a pretty wide open contests.  Gingrich, Romney and Paul, may be looked at right now as the candidates with the best shot at taking first place in that contest.  But given the uniquness of Iowa and the complexities of caucus elections, it is not impossible for Rick Santorum or  Michele Bachmann to surprise the political world with a first place showing.

But even if such a placement in Iowa eludes ether of them, you can bet on them having a relatively strong showing that will certainly have an affect on who does win Iowa.  If they end up getting more support from social conservatives than currently expected, they could deny Gingrich and Ron Paul enough votes to beat Romney’s vote total and give him the Caucus win.

How it plays olut will be quite interesting, but for now, polls in multiple state’s aside from Iowa, present a picture that has the nomination contest coming down to two men, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. So this week, White House 2012 is asking readers to tell us which of the two is the strongest one to run against President Obama.

Two weeks ago, White House 2012 asked readers which Republican presidential candidate they thought was most capable of beating President Obama in the presidential debates? In that poll,  an overwhelmingly number of respondents believed Newt Gingrich was the candidate with the best shot at outshining Obama in the debates.  Mitt Romney came in a distant second:

  • Newt Gingrich  48.19% 
  • Mitt Romney  16.06%  
  • None of them  7.23%  
  • Ron Paul  5.22%
  • Michele Bachmann  4.42%  
  • Herman Cain  11.24%  
  • Jon Huntsman  2.81%  
  • Rick Santorum  2.41% 
  • Rick Perry  1.2% 
  • Gary Johnson  1.2% 

But as the first voting in the nomination process gets closer, we would now like to know if  voters believe that the ability to outperform President Obama in a debate is enough to beat the President in the general election?.  So this week, we ask you, with all things considered, which of the two strongest debaters is the  candidate with the best overall chance of beating President Obama in the general election?

Click here to take the poll now!

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Which Republican Presidential Candidate Has the Best Chance of Beating President Obama in a Debate?

Bookmark and Share  Last week, White House 2012 asked readers to tell us which of the Republican candidates they believe is most capable of beating President Obama in the presidential debates.

Of all the questions ever asked about the Republican presidential candidates in a White House 2012 poll, nonehave ever had results that gave the nod to any candidate by as large a margin as this one did.  With a lead that exceeded his nearest rival by more than 32%,  White House 2012 readers concluded that Newt Gingrich was the candidate with the best chance of dominating the President in the debates.

Far behind him was Mitt Romney, followed by Herman Cain, a candidate who is now out of the running.

Behind Cain, with 7.23%,  was “none of the candidates”.

With a margin as wide as the one Newt received in this poll of approximately 300 respondents, it is safe to say that a clear majority of Republican voters have found Newt’s debate skills to be superior to those of his rivals.  It is also safe to say that Newt’s rise in the polls, which began to rebound, prior to Herman Cain’s departure from the campaign trail, is in large part due to his performances in the many debates that have already been held.

The perception that Newt could outshine President Obama in a debate is a promising observation when considering who Republicans will ultimately nominate for President. 

The Presidential debates typically draw some of the largest national audiences of all televised events, and they often prove to be decisive factors in particularly close elections.  But before we can get to those debates, we need a nominee and now that this poll answers the questions of who voters think can do better in debate with President Obama, the next question is, how much of a factor will that be in determining who Republicans want to run against President Obama?

When it comes to electability, Newt does not score very high marks.  With legends created about multiple marriages, and a history of being a polarizing and partisan political figure, many have significant doubts about Newt’s electability.  But the popular perception that Newt can beat the President in the debates, the perceived electability problem in  the general election losses some of its sting.  However, at the same time, the overwhelming opinion of Newt being superior debater puts increasing pressure on Newt.  From here on out, voters will be holding  Newt Gingrich to a higher standard than the other candidates in future debates.  And a weak debate performance at any point in the future could prove to be lethal to Gingrich in the sense that it will take the shine off of what voters consider to beone of his greatest strengths.

Meanwhile, even though Mitt Romney comes in far behind Newt in this poll, should Newt not win the nomination, the results seemingly indicate that Republicans will still be pretty confident in Romney’s ability to hold his own against President Obama.

At the bottom end of this poll, in the wake of a series of debate performances that blew Texas Governor Rick Perry out of the water, it should come as no surprise that he and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson tied for last place.  Gary Johnson has been allowed in only two debates and in each one, he failed to catch on with voters in any significant way.

This week, White House 2012’s poll takes its lead from a post written by IkeFriday, that wondered out loud about how people viewed Ron Paul when  it comes to his policies that involve Israel.   Friday’s question was inspired by the The Republican Jewish Coalition’s decision to not invite Ron Paul to their candidate’s forum that will be held this Wednesday on December 7th.   The RJC  said that inviting Ron Paul would be no different than inviting Barack Obama when it came to policy on Israel and Israel’s enemies.

While the reasoning does not indicate that the Republican Jewish community believes Ron Paul is anti-Semitic but Paul’s positions have often been ascribed to anti-Jewish sentiments on his part. 

For the record, as someone who is absolutely no fan of Ron Paul’s policies, I personally believe that while his positions concerning Israel are not approved of by me, I can not accuse Ron Paul of being anti-Semitic.  I believe that Ron Paul’s positions here are driven by his sincere interpretation of the Constitution and by what he truly believes is the best interest of America first.  I have no reason to believe that Paul’s positions regarding Israel are driven by an any anti-Jewish sentiments.   \

That’s my opinion.   What’s yours?  Is Ron Paul anti-Semitic?

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Who Won Thursday’s Fox News/Google Debate in Florida and Why?

Bookmark and Share  With nine candidates and many questions asked by American citizens through Youtube, who if anyone do you think won Thursday’s Fox News/Google Debate in Florida?

Click here to take the poll

Then leave your comments explaining what made candidates winners and losers in this most recent debate. Or join the debate about the debate on White House 2012’s Facebook discussion page.

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Pawlenty Up, Romney Down. Monthly Ranking of Republican Presidential Field Finds New Frontrunner

Bookmark and Share    After a month that saw some of the hottest potential Republican presidential candidates officially decline to get in to the race, White House 2012’s newest monthly ranking produced a few surprises. To begin with, the narrowing down of the potential presidential field prompted WH12 to cut its ranking half and go from a list of the top twenty, to the top ten. This forced many lower tier names that were often found in the ranking, left out. But the smaller list made the ranking competitive that even some big names surprisingly did not make it. Most notably missing is Michele Bachmann.

While Bachmann almost made the cut, in addition to the possibility for several other big names to still jump in to the race, and a the smaller number of slots available in the ranking forced a much harsher analysis of the field. As a result, even though Bachmann has the ability to upset her rivals in Iowa and South Carolina, a lack of electability outside of those two states was more than likely what prevented her from placement in the top ten. Last month, Bachmann was ranked twelfth. This month, a top twenty ranking would have put Bachmann in eleventh place. So even though she did not make the list in June, she still improved her standing in May.

The biggest surprise of all though came in in the number slot. Since WH12 began ranking the candidates several months ago, Mitt Romney was consistently ranked number one. In June, for the very first time, Romney slipped to second place and was replaced by former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.

This change was again most likely due to the increasingly competitiveness of a smaller ranking and indicates that Pawlenty benefits the most from Mitch Daniels‘, Mike Huckabee’s, and Donald Trump’s decision not to run. With these, and others out, Pawlenty becomes a fall back candidate for many. But more importantly, as people look closer at a field of fewer and fewer candidates, RomneyCare is probably the one thing most responsible for preventing them from flocking to Mitt Romney and cause them to be more willing to side with other candidates like Tim Pawlenty instead.   RomneyCare continues to be the primary reason why Romney does not have a lock on the nomination.

Another surprise is the third place showing of Herman Cain.

Cain’s outsider status, combined with his fiery articulation of the issues, makes him increasingly viable in an electorate that has fewer hopefuls to back in the ginned up TEA Party movement atmosphere that currently exists. Although it is not likely that Herman Cain will actually get the nomination, if he can raise enough money to compete with people like Pawlenty, he can make a serious run for the nomination. And that is reflected in this month’s ranking.

Behind Cain is Jon Huntsman, followed by Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Rick Sanotrum, Ron Paul, Texas Governor Rick Perry and in tenth place is former New York City Mayor, Rudy Giuliani.  Palin and Paul hold the same position in June that they held in May.

While Gingrich, Santorum, and Ron Paul have made their candidacies official, and Jon Huntsman is assumed to make his campaign official soon, it is still not known what Palin, Perry, and Giuliani are doing.  Still, between the likelihood of their running and the impact they could have if they did, the consensus among the staff of WH12 finds Palin in fifth place, Perry in ninth, and Rudy in tenth. If they were to make their candidacies official, their placement would probably be higher.

White House 2012’s monthly ranking is based on an average calculated from the individual rankings of each of the site’s staff writers. The overall ranking reflects where the combined opinion of the staff writers place the candidates or potential candidates, if the election were held today. It does not reflect who WH12 wants to be, or thinks will actually be the nominee. It is only a current snapshot of where the candidates stand today, that is based upon current circumstances and factors and the potential that each candidate is so far showing.

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