New White House 2012 Projection Has Romney Winning By 24 Electoral Votes

  Bookmark and Share With 29 days remaining in the race for President, White House 2012’s latest analysis of polls, circumstances, and conditions, concludes that there is a swing towards Mitt Romney in the Electoral College that is so pronounced that the Romney-Ryan ticket has increased its lead over the Obama-Biden ticket by at least 24 electoral votes.  The last White House 2012 projection had Mitt Romney winning 273 electoral votes to the presidents 265 electoral votes.  Today Romney stands at 281 electoral votes to 257 for the President.

For the first time, the latest projection gives Romney the all important state of Ohio, which up to now has been written off by White House 2012 as an almost certain win for President Obama. However, small shifts which have revealed themselves in most of the polls figured in to the Real Clear Politics average of polls since Romney’ stellar debate performance last Wednesday, now indicate that if the numbers hold up, Romney will win Ohio, a change that significantly increases the number of ways that Romney can reach the magic number of 270 that is needed to win the presidential race in the electoral college.

While Romney seems to be gaining momentum, it is too early to call it a steady trend, especially given the fact that while Romney has picked up Ohio in the newest projection, New Hampshire and Nevada which Romney did have in column last week, have flipped back to President Obama today.  The good news is that combined, New Hampshire and Nevada have a total of only 10 electoral votes while by itself Ohio has a total of 18 electoral votes.  So even if Romney did lose Nevada and New Hampshire, he stands on better ground after picking up the Buckeye State.  However; it is important to note that White House 2012 is being very conservative by flipping New Hampshire and Nevada to the Obama-Biden ticket.  While the RCP average has pushed the President’s lead in those two states to be in excess of the 3.7% margin of error which we give to Mitt Romney to compensate for each polls poor judgment in the use the 2008 turnout models, other factors prove to be working in Mitt Romney’s favor and allow us to give the President those states by only the slimmest of margins. So both New Hampshire and Nevada are now only barely light blue for the President and they could easily turn pink for Romney at a moment’s notice.

While most states are clearly leaning towards one candidate or the other, White House 2012 is currently only considering there to be seven battleground states.  They are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia.  Of those states, White House 2012 currently projects the following outcomes;

White House 2012 does see the potential for Romney to become much more competitive in Wisconsin, New Mexico, and possibly Michigan but for now, we do not consider them to be battleground states.

Other Favorable Indicators for Romney

As the race continues to evolve, this projection will change, however; at the moment the race is shaping up to be one that is moving in Mitt Romney’s direction.

For instance, it is with good reason that we continue to forecast Romney victories in the critical states of Florida and Virginia.

While some polls show small Romney leads in those states, most all other polls show Romney to have at least closed the small previous gap that existed between him and the President by as much as half or more.  For example, the latest number from PPP, a Democrat leaning polling outfit, shows that in Virginia, Obama’s lead has shrunk from +5  to +3.  While that Obama lead might not seem like good news for Romney, it is actually very good news when you consider the fact that by using the same turnout model from 2008, the PPP sampling finds this smaller Obama lead even after still giving Democrats a +6 advantage over Republicans.

Furthermore; it is that same Democrat advantage that polls are giving to the President which we see in other states such as Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire and all the other critical swing states.  Yet despite this Democrat advantage, Romney is gaining on the President.  So much so that WH12 sees evidence that indicates the Romney-Ryan ticket will probably not only win the election, they will probably win it by an even wider margin than anyone thinks possible.

Adding to this positive direction for Romney are indications that his own internal polling in at least two states. Currently, those internal polls are said to show Virginia and Ohio show him beating Obama by as much as 3.0% and 4.5%, respectively.

Conclusion;

The recent questionable jobs report has provided a slight spike in consumer confidence but it has not yet translated in to a bounce for the President.  At the same time, President Obama’s approval ratings continue to remain at or below 50%, a position not conducive for reelection of an incumbent President. 

Meanwhile, after his initial debate performance Mitt Romney has established himself as a real threat to the reelection of President Obama.  For the first time since their conventions, Romney is seeing evidence of his base becoming excited with his candidacy and there are signs that undecided voters are moving in his direction.  But Republicans must be careful to not consider this a trend until and unless future polls over the course of the next week show these recent numbers to still be moving in the right direction.  However; at the moment the Romney-Ryan ticket seems to have blocked President Obama’s own forward momentum in the polls and at the same time has finally gotten his campaign moving at pace that could turn the tables on the Obama-Biden and make them the ones with fewer paths to victory.  But to do that, Romney must be sure to keep the momentum moving in the right direction and at the right pace.  To do that, Romney must avoid any stumbles on the campaign trail and he must make sure that an endless repetitive stream of his well crafted 30 second ads are driving home his message and allowing it to sink in among the voters who have a new found respect for Romney after his first debate and are now more receptive to his message than they have been at any other point in this election.

The Projection Formula

The White House 2012 projection takes the Real Clear Politics average of polls and compensates for the outdated 2008 turnout models being used in each in poll by compensating for the under-counting of Republican turnout by adding to Romney’s total, the 3.7% average margin of error in the seven key swing states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia.  Then along with a dose of personal political instinct, our projection incorporates other factors in to the equation such as the unemployment rates of individual states and the organizational strength of each state’s Party. 

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First Reliable Post Debate Polls Shows the Momentum Behind Romney

  Bookmark and Share   Rasmussen Reports has released the first major polls for the critical swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia since Romney’s masterful debate performance on Wednesday night.  The surveys seem to indicate that the first presidential debate has provided Romney with some of the forward momentum that previous polling indicated he needed in those states as Romney closes the gap in each of the three states to within either a percentage point behind or ahead of President Obama.

While all of this is good news for Mitt, the best news of all is in the Ohio numbers.

  • FLORIDA:    Romney 49% – Obama 47%
  • OHIO:            Obama 50%   – Romney 49
  • VIRGINIA:  Romney 49% – Obama 48%

Up to now, White House 2012 has largely concluded that Mitt Romney was likely to become the first Republican to win the White House without winning Ohio.  Barack Obama knows that without Ohio, Romney has significantly fewer paths leading to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.  For that reason, the Obama-Biden ticket has targeted Ohio and made it the key to their own reelection effort.  So far they have done so with success by exploiting the President’s bailout of the auto industry which in one way or another, employs a significant number of Ohioans.  But these new numbers may now show that the Obama strategy to deny Romney Ohio is going to be tougher than heretofore believed.  Apparently, Romney’s debate performance swung at least some minds in his direction.  But the apparent turnaround in Ohio and Obama’s struggle to deny Romney the state is a problem for the President that is only compounded by the fact that the latest Rasmussen poll now also shows Romney ahead in Virginia and Florida.

If this trend continues, the tables can quickly turn and President Obama can find himself the one losing the number of paths available to reelection.

On Monday, when these and other polls are figured in to the  RCP average of polls, White House 2012 will be updating its own Electoral College projection which currently gives Romney an 8 vote lead over President Obama.  (See the current WH12 Electoral College Projection here.)

The White House 2012 Electoral College projection is based upon a formula which uses the average margin of error in all the polls that Real Clear Politics uses to reach its average of polls.  This formula compensates for what we believe is the undercounting of the Republican voter that most polling outfits are using by basing this election on the 2010 turnout models.  Under this formula, White House 2012 currently adds 3.7% to Romney’s RCP average in each of the swing states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia….  the six  states we believe are still undecided.  North Carolina which is considered a swing state by the mainstream media, is not considered such by White House 2012.  We believe that Romney will win North Carolina and have put that state and its 15 electoral votes in Romney’s column.

As indicated in the map below with blue states being for Obama and red states being for Romney, most other states are clearly in the column of one candidate or the other.   A few exceptions could present themselves though in the coming weeks.  White House 2012 suspects that Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico could open up and become much more competitive for Romney than it currently is.  If that happens, WH12 will consider them toss-ups and apply the 3.7% formula to their RCP average.

 

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“Accordingly, I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my Party for another term as your President.”

Bookmark and Share    Last week White House 2012 asked readers if they believed  that there was a Democrat who could challenge President Obama and snatch the his party’s nomination away from him. In that poll, 49.15% of respondents indicated that they believed Hillary Clinton could do that while 25.42% feel that no one can take the nomination away from him at this point. That was followed by other names that readers felt could beat the President which included 8.47% for New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, 5.08% for former Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, 1.69% for Howard Dean, and 10.17% who believe that other Democrats could take the Democratic nomination away from President Obama.

At the moment, the President is so vulnerable that even the most optimistic of liberals must be having doubts about President Obama’s reelection chances. In many ways it does seem that his prospects for reelection are dimming each day. With increasing bad economic indicators, high unemployment numbers, low consumer confidence, and nothing to show for his effort except for a national debt that he brought up to crisis levels, no one is willing to suggest that Barack Obama is the person best suited to lead America in the right direction for the next four years. This is reflected by numerous national polls which demonstrate that President Obama is now at the lowest approval ratings that he has ever seen. On Monday Rasmussen reported that the President is approved by only 22% of those voters who are currently not yet committed to him or any particular Republican candidate who is running for President.

With the writing on the wall, President Obama has even realized that he must really work some magic to turn both the economy and his approval around. Yet his latest attempt failed to pull any rabbits out of the hat and was nothing more than a regurgitated version of his previous stimulus packages which only achieved the first ever downgrading of our national credit rating. After his big roll out of this plan before a special, nationally televised, speech to a joint session of Congress, most people simply yawned and asked themselves……. “didn’t we hear him say this before?” And now that President Obama has fired his big guns with his new jobs bill, it would seem that he has nothing left in his arsenal.

Oh sure the President can continue to position himself through an attempt to wage class warfare. And he can try to position himself in a way that will allow Republicans can be blamed for the economy because of their lack of support for his jobs plan. But such maneuvering still won’t help him. At some point people see through the posturing and at some point they will not deny where the buck stops and why it is not making its way in to their pockets.

That is why there are some who are beginning to wish that President Obama would decline the nomination to a second term.

This suggestion recently appeared in of all of places, The Chicago Tribune, one of President Obama’s hometown newspapers. In 2008, Barack Obama was the first Democrat that the paper endorsed in its 161-year history. Yet in the particular article, columnist Steve Chapman wrote;

“Obama might do his party a big favor. In hard times, voters have a powerful urge to punish incumbents. He could slake this thirst by stepping aside and taking the blame. Then someone less reviled could replace him at the top of the ticket.”

Chapman who supported Obama also noted the following;

“Former White House spokesman Bill Burton said that unless Obama can rally the Democratic base, which is disillusioned with him, “it’s going to be impossible for the president to win.” Democratic consultant James Carville had one word of advice for Obama: “Panic.”

Then there was a Monday morning article that appeared in the Washington Times which had the headline Liberals Vow to Challenge Obama in Democratic Primaries. According to that piece, so-called progressive leaders and more than 45 liberal leaders (both terms mean Democrats) want to recruit six candidates to challenge President Obama for the nomination in order to give a greater voice to liberal positions on everything from the military to poverty.

So it would seem that no one is really pleased with Barack Obama. His base feels he has not gone far enough, his opponents believe he has gone to far and those who are in the middle just don’t approve him of anything that he’s done. Such a situation does make it look as if Democrats would be better off running someone other Barack Obama in 2012. With him at the top of the ticket, not only do Democrats improve their chances of losing the White House, they will find themselves likely to lose control of the Senate and unlikely to gain any ground towards retaking control of the House. This would be a trifecta for Republicans that would set liberals back for a decade or more and spark the type of talk about the Democrat Party that Democrats themselves brought up regarding Republicans in 2008. After taking control of all three federal legislative branches, many on the left claimed that the G.O.P. was going the way of the Whigs.

Such setbacks could leave an incredibly negative legacy that will truly damage the  progressive, liberal Democrat agenda.  For that reason, the question of stepping down has to be at least considered. When President Lyndon B. Johnson saw his base divided and his popularity pummetting, not only considered not seeking reelection in 1968, he took advantage of not running.

While history still questions exactly al the reasons why Johnson decided not to run for reelection, it is clear that he was not entering the ‘68 campaign in a position that would have allowed him to win any popularity contests. He was even receiving a significant challenge from liberal Eugene McCarthy. Although Johnson did not actively campaign against McCarthy in the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary, McCarthy still embarrassed Johnson by coming within 7 percentage points of defeating the incumbent President. But by that point in 1968, it was too late for Democrats to turn their electoral fate around, regardless of who they ran at the top of their ticket.  By November, not only did Democrats lose the White House, they lost seats in the Senate and the House. From the look of things now, President Obama will be costing Democrats far more seats  in 2012 than they lost in ‘68. And to make matters worse, the losses will be so severe that the G.O.P. will be able to repeal the President’s single self described, greatest accomplishment….. socialized healthcare.

No matter how you look at it, President Obama is doing no one any good. He is not helping his own Party and more importantly, he is not helping America. Which is why WorldNetDaily columnist Joseph Farah offered his own unique strategy. Farah suggests that Sarah Palin challenge Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination. He writes that “the idea would be for Palin to win the Democratic nomination with mostly Republican and independent votes.”

By getting Republicans and Independents to change their Party affiliations so that they can vote in Democratic primaries and caucuses, Farah believes Palin could beat Obama or at the very least, cause him to spend some of his ample war chest before the general election. According to Farah,

“Personally, I believe most Americans would lose interest in the Republican contest and focus their political money, time and energy on the Palin-Obama race.” He adds, “I think it’s a sure-fire recipe for saving America by making sure Obama is not even a viable option in the general election. He might be forced to run as a third-party candidate, a write-in or not at all! “

While Joseph Farah’s Rush Limbaugh-like 2008 launch of Operation Chaos which compelled Republicans to vote for Clinton over Obama in the Democratic primaries, such a scheme for Palin is unlikely to work. But Democrats should be able to turn to someone other than Sarah Palin to save them. Right now President Obama is a rudderless ship steering the United States into the thick ice. Republicans are more than willing to change the course before the hull of our ship of state is pierced and the water starts filling in. And right now most voters agree with the need to change course. The only people who do not believe so are the diehard Democrats. Unless one of them is willing to admit that the ice is straight ahead and the wayward Captain must be removed from the helm, the American voter will be forced to do so in an electoral mutiny that will throw many Democrats overboard come Election Day 2012.

Of course there is always the chance that Republicans can simply blow their chance to prove themselves. They could get off topic and begin to make Barack Obama look like the rational candidate running. But the G.O.P. will have to really screw things up to do that. Still I do not past it past the ability of the Republican political establishment to shoot it self in the foot, However; is hoping that the other guy screws up more than you really a good strategy? It’s time for us to stop the hoping that President Obama wants us to keep doing and it’s time that someone start the doing that we need. Since 2008, Americans have moved far beyond hoping for change and are now demanding big changes. Whoever can prove that they will provide real change in 2012, will win. For Democrats, the best way to show that they are the the agents of change is to change the top of their ticket.  But we all know that  four more years of the same we’ve seen is not the kind of change that anyone is hoping for.

Until and unless a Democrat is willing to come forward and say “I must save the Party and the nation from Barack Obama”, only President Obama can spare us from any more of his failures. And while many may view the chances of President Obama declining a run for a second term as thin to none, they should remember that few anticipated Lyndon Johnson’s announcement that he would refuse the Party’s nomination for President in 1968.

Back then President Johnson, was delivering a speech regarding the war that was raging on in Vietnam. But at the very end, he shocked the nation with the following words;

“Believing this as I do, I have concluded that I should not permit the Presidency to become involved in the partisan divisions that are developing in this political year.

With America’s sons in the fields far away, with America’s future under challenge right here at home, with our hopes and the world’s hopes for peace in the balance every day, I do not believe that I should devote an hour or a day of my time to any personal partisan causes or to any duties other than the awesome duties of this office–the Presidency of your country.”

 Accordingly, I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my Party for another term as your President.”

Given the seriousness of our national debt and budget problems, problems which our own Secretary of Defense defined as a national security issue, is it that hard to see President Obama do the same as Johnson? Can any one not see President Obama say the following after delivering another speech about the economy?;

“I have concluded that I should not permit the Presidency to become involved in the partisan divisions that preventing us from making the hard decisions that are required to reduce our debt and get our economy back on track.

With America’s working force sidelined, with America’s future being challenged right here at home and abroad, with our hopes and the children’s hopes for propsperity in the balance every day, I do not believe that I should devote an hour or a day of my time to any personal partisan causes or to any duties other than the awesome duties of this office–the Presidency of your country.

 Accordingly, I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my Party for another term as your President.”

President Obama does not need to actually mean those words. He does not need to believe those words, but by saying them, he will give his Party a fighting chance in 2012 and as a lame duck President, he will create the opportunity for liberal leadership to come out of Congress,fill the void that he has created, and allow for a new voice to offer a viable liberal vision for his Party.

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Trunkline 2012: Tuesday Tidbits From The Republican Presidential Race – 9/13/11

Tuesday Evening Election News Roundup: Treats and Tweets From the Campaign Trail for Tuesday, September 13, 2011

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Romney’s Reality. Make His Move Now or Risk Waiting Till It’s Too Late?

Romney has to keep some players off the field

Bookmark and Share   As indicated by a recent Rasmussen Reports National Republican Primary survey of 1,000 likely primary voters, since making his expected presidential candidacy official last month, Mitt Romney is solidifying his perceived hold on frontrunner status. The poll gives him a 14% lead over the rival who since Monday’s debate, is now his closest rival, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann. The actual results of the poll are as follows; Romney – 33%, Bachmann – 19%, Cain –10%, Gingrich – 9%, Paul – 7%, Pawlenty – 6%, Santorum – 6%, Huntsman – 2%

This is good news for Romney, but at this early stage in the game, voter’s are quite fickle. They have yet to really focus on a decision that some won’t have to make for another 9 months and most won’t have to make for almost a year from now. So many of these people are going with Romney because he is a name that remains well known ever since he first ran for President in 2008. But among activist Republican voters, their familiarity with Romney does not make him a clear frontrunner. The biggest reason for that is his creation of the Massachusetts healthcare plan that President Obama claims was the model for his unpopular national Obamacare plan. This crack in Romney’s shell is the major reason behind why many Republicans are hoping that a knight in shining armor steps into the race and saves the day, or rather the election.

For some that savior is Sarah Palin. For others it’s Rick Perry, Chris Christie, or Rudy Giuliani.

While another Giuliani presidential candidacy ultimately won’t have much impact, the other three names would. Christie, Palin, and Perry have a style, reputation and record that it takes to be popular with the anti-government sentiments of the TEA Party age. Giuliani really doesn’t. Additionally, if he had what it takes, he would be well positioned for the nomination as either the incumbent Governor of New York or United States Senator representing the state..

Ever Since 2000, when Hillary Clinton ran to replace Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Rudy was the premier New York Republican and the first and only name New York Republicans had a chance to win with. Yet since 2000, Rudy was not up to running and as a result, Republicans lost two gubernatorial elections, and twice as many chances to win a U.S. Senate seat. If Rudy was not up to beating names like Elliot Spitzer, Chuck Schumer and the virtually unknown Kirsten Gillibrand in statewide races, he is certainly not up to beating names like Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney or Barack Obama on a national level.

However the prospects of a Christie, Palin, or Perry candidacy could go far. And more importantly, they could go a long way in preventing Romney from getting the Republican presidential nomination.

This forces Mitt Romney to confront that reality and requires his campaign to make a critical strategic decision.

Romney already has his hands full with the competition he is getting from the current field of declared candidates. While the candidates were quite civil with one another and focused on what they agree on during the most recent debate, soon they will be focusing on their differences. And the most glaring difference between Romney and the rest of the field is that none of them have created a government-centric healthcare plan that President Obama adopted. No matter how much Mitt tries to frame the issue as a states rights issue that he handled appropriately as a Governor but would never think of handling the same way as a President, for many he will continue to have big-government blood on his hands. Still, among the seven major candidates that he will definitely be running against, Romney has a fighting chance. But if Rick Perry were to join the field, Romney’s fighting chance quickly becomes a major uphill battle.

For that reason, it behooves Romney to solidify his frontrunner status now.

If Romney was able to take what is currently at best, a tenuous hold on the top spot and turn it into a solid hold on the top spot, than Rick Perry and others who have been showing a real or perceived reluctance to run, will be less likely to do so.

Up to now, Romney has been attempting to lay relatively low and avoid the type of national overexposure that could cause people to get tired of him and peak too early in the long nomination process. Right now Romney is content with tirelessly meeting with and talking to relatively small organized, individual groups of influential Republicans and Republican activists and trying to win them over. Such a strategy is a necessity for any candidate. But it will not make Romney seem unbeatable quickly enough to prevent stiff competition from announcing their candidacy and sucking the gas out of Romney tank.

So Mitt needs to decide whether he wants to run a slow and steady campaign that builds momentum gradually or if he is willing to make some moves that risk early overexposure but discourage others who have a good chance at beating Romney from becoming candidates. One of those moves that Mitt might want to think about is renouncing the “Providing Access to Affordable, Quality, Accountable Health Care” that he enacted in 2006 as Governor. If Romney could come forward and describe Romneycare as a proper attempt by a state to experiment with a solution to a tough problem, and then admit that the experiment failed, he could begin to convince apprehensive, limited government voters that he gets it.

Romney has come close to this. In speech after speech, he has articulated that his state healthcare plan was not perfect and that there are things he would now do differently. But coming close to admitting that Romneycare was a failure is not good enough. What he needs to do is admit that his Massachusetts healthcare plan did not do the job he had hoped it would and then go as far as to say that it once and for all proved to him that government is not the answer.

If Romney were to go this route, he would have the breathing room to explain that he lived up to his responsibilities as a Governor and allowed his state to with its own solution to its own problems. He would then be able to get milegage by explaining that the difference between him and President Obama is that unlike the President, he understands the difference between the role that a Governor plays in their own state and that a President should play in the governance of a state. The key is convincingly making the point that his healthcare experiment as a Governor, will make him a President who is more convinced than ever that government is not the answer.

This argument would fly among limited government and TEA movement voters. Not only would it be plausible, it would begin to unwrap the healthcare albatross from his neck.

But that alone will not be enough to prevent Governors who did not make the same mistake in their states that Romney did in his, from entering the race and challenging Romney. To accomplish this, Romney needs to make an investment in a national  blitz that exploit’s the economic malaise that President Obama is entrenching us in and highlight Romney’s understanding of the economy as well as the private sector and the successes he has had in the private sector. Romney needs to quickly acquire a stronger national image as a master of free market based growth, who knows how to create jobs, and as was the case in the 2002 Winter Olympics, turn things such as our economy, around. This impression must become undeniably obvious and to do so, Romney can not just create this impression in New Hampshire and Iowa. To prevent someone like from Rick Perry from challenging him, they need to see that states which hold primaries and caucuses later in the contest, also have an undeniable positive image of Romney. Romney may even want to think about taking advantage of some sketchy polls that show that Perry is currently behind others Republican presidential hopefuls among Texas  Republican primary voters.

Romney’s private sector background and managerial talent is his strong suit and if he can act quickly to exploit the continuous reports of an economy that is actually getting worse, he can turn that strong suit into the type of armor that will discourage others from challenging him. That will then leave Romney to compete among an existing field of candidates who will have a hard time replacing Romney as the frontrunner.

This strategy is unorthodox. Traditional campaigns for a presidential nomination force candidates to focus on the individual state contests that can keep them in the game till the next state primary or caucus. Usually the strategy is to win enough early state primaries and caucuses to force opponents to drop out of the race and leave the nomination to them. But for Mitt Romney, as it is now, he will have a tough time winning Iowa, the first contest, and South Carolina, the third contest. And if he does not do well in Florida which holds its primary shortly after, then Romney may be in trouble. This scenario makes it enticing for someone like Rick Perry to become a candidate. Unlike Romney, Perry could easily win Iowa and South Carolina. In fact, if Perry were to run, he is the one candidate with the greatest chance to win enough early contests to force others, inluding Romney,  out of the race.

For that reason, Romney may want to make his move now rather than later. Because if Rick Perry runs, later may be too late for Mitt Romney.

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