How Far Will Perry’s Endorsement Go?

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Rick Perry bowed out of the race for the Presidency and endorsed Newt Gingrich. Given how poorly Perry was doing in the polls, his endorsement isn’t worth squat if all it gives Newt is Perry’s voters. What Newt needs and Perry has are money and contacts. With the Florida contest only a short way off, Gingrich needs to hit the airwaves there with ads right now.

We should find out within 24 hours if Perry’s endorsement comes with real campaign support (donors, contacts, etc.) or not. If Newt goes in for a significant media buy in Florida to capture early voters before the weekend, then we know that Perry is fully behind Newt. If not, then Perry’s endorsement may not matter at all. The Texas primary is too far off to matter if Gingrich can’t get money for ads and an organization going on the ground in upcoming States.

Perry may have failed in his run for the nomination, but the reason he was considered a major player was not for his debate skills. Even when he struggled in the debates he was still considered a danger to the other candidates. The reason is simple: money. Perry is an effective fund-raiser and the only one thought capable of challenging the Romney war chest. If that power is fully behind Gingrich, then Romney could be in serious trouble.

Money not only buys ad time, but also the organization necessary to keep Newt from going off the deep end another time. Sometimes the candidate needs to be managed for his own good to protect his campaign image. Newt has benefited from basically running his own show and not getting bogged down in ‘candidate packaging’, but as he becomes the de facto conservative alternative to Romney – he’s going to need to be more careful. Having the money to blanket the airwaves helps with that as it will relieve some of the pressure he’s been under to ‘score a knock-out blow’ against Romney. With money, Newt only needs to be smart, responsible and conservative and he’ll defeat Romney.

The next 24 hours are the tell. If Newt hits the Florida airwaves with a large buy before the weekend, then he’s expecting money from former Perry donors. If he waits until after the SC results, then he’s expecting to have to raise money on his own. It may only be the matter of a day’s difference in buying ad time (before or after SC votes), but that day speaks volumes as to the level of help Perry will actually be.

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New Poll Shows Perry Has Lots of Work To Do

Bookmark and Share    A new poll of New Hampshire Republicans by Suffolk University has begun to raise doubt about Texas Governor Rick Perry’s electability outside of the South. According to the poll, Romney leads Perry by 33 points. Even more depressing for the Perry camp is that not only is the gap between him and Romney so wide, but he also trails behind Texas Congressman Ron Paul and even former Ambassador and Utah Governor Jon Huntsman. According to the results, Romney takes 41 percent. Texas Rep. Ron Paul garners 14 percent. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman finishes third with 10 percent, followed by Perry with eight percent, Sarah Palin who is not even an official candidate at 6%; Michele Bachmann 5%; Newt Gingrich at 4%; and Herman Cain, Rick Santorum and Buddy Roemer at or around 1%.

Perry’s fourth place showing in New Hampshire according to one poll which is not among any of the four that are typically used to gauge how a candidate is doing, is certainly not a sign that things are over for Perry, not even in New Hampshire. But it does suggest that Perry has a lot of work to do outside of the delegate rich South.

Between January and April 24th of 2012, 351 delegates are up for grabs from within the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states alone. In that same time period, Midwest and upper-Midwest states will have 238 delegates in play. This means that unless Perry locks up the nomination with substantial early wins in at least South Carolina and Florida, followed by substantial victories in California, Georgia, Minnesota, Missouri, and North Dakota which are scheduled to hold their contests on the same day in February, than Mitt Romney can assure Rick Perry a long and drawn out battle that Romney could easily win.

Currently, while Perry’s strength lies in the South, Southwest and possibly even places like Iowa, Romney has a leg up on Perry in the Northeast, upper Midwest and West. For Mitt, states, like Michigan, which he won in 2008, and Wisconsin and Minnesota are strong territory for him. In the Northeast, states like new York, New Jersey, Delaware, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and others, make it the region that is strongest for him.

And then there is of course California, which is a winner-take-all contest that is closed to only registered Republicans. A win there in early February will earn the victor 172 delegates. That is equal to the number of delegates in play in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida combined.

What this means is that Rick Perry will need to quickly show some strength outside of Iowa and the South. New Hampshire would be the perfect place for him to do that. But asking Perry to win New Hampshire over Mitt Romney is like expecting Mitt Romney to defeat Rick Perry in Texas……..it ain’t gonna happen.

Still, coming in behind both Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman is embarrassing for a so-called frontrunner. So Perry is going to have to work at New Hampshire. Even though a Southern strategy that would have him win the early states of South Carolina and then Florida can work, being blown out in New Hampshire will not allow Mitt Romney to stay in the game and survive until the states favorable to him allocate their delegates. At the same time, it must be realized that the earlier we decide who the Republican nominee is, the better it will be for the Party.

Until we have a nominee, the contenders will be beating up on each other. A protracted nomination contest will therefore only help to weaken the nominee up for President Obama to beat on. But a contest that wraps up the nomination decisively and early will allow everyone to focus on beating up on President Obama. As such, having a frontrunner for the Republican nomination blown out in New Hampshire, does not help anyone…..accept for Mitt Romney. Therefore if Perry wants to have any chance of securing the nomination early on in the process, he is going to have to do better in New Hampshire and demonstrate to voters that he can get votes outside of the South.

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Perry Calls Obama “President Zero” and Romney Calls Perry “Governor Sub-Zero” in Response

Bookmark and Share    Ahead of Thursday’s Republican presidential debate in Florida and the second debate appearance for Rick Perry, the Texas Governor has released a new a ad entitled “Rick Perry – Proven Leadership”[see ad below this post]. In it Governor Perry hammers President Obama on his economic record.

With depictions of barren land, boarded up homes, empty factories, and desolate scenes of decrepit urban ruin, Perry’s ad tags Obama as “President Zero”, a reference to his creating “zero“ jobs since he has been in office. But after the first half of the ad, a more optimistic tone is set with images of a happier, more pleasant America that include horses galloping through the surf , sun drenched cities, American flags, the statue of liberty, and happy factory workers shaking Perry’s hands. Perry’s point is driven home as you hear him describe the type of leadership that will lead to a thriving America as opposed to the ailing America that President Obama’s leadership has created.

The ad is somewhat reminiscent of the dramatic, quick cutting imagery, and shaky shots done at angles, with jagged audio cuts, and a booming motion picture-like soundtrack that became a staple of Tim Pawlenty’s web ads that he ran during his short-lived presidential campaign. And that is for good reason. It was produced by Lucas Baiano, a 23-year-old video prodigy who was once the director of visual media and film for The Republican Party.  Baino also did ads for the Republican Governors Association and in 2008 he  cut some spots for Hillary Clinton.

When Tim Pawlenty closed shop, Bainao was scooped up by Perry’s campaign earlier this month.

Lucas Baino

For his part, Mitt Romney, the man who is seen as Perry’s biggest rival (or vise versa depending on which side you’re on) issued a press release entitled “Governor Sub-Zero,”in response to Perry’s “President Zero”. In the release, Romney’s campaign alleges that that while the US economy produced zero net jobs in August, Texas produced even less. Romney campaign spokeswoman Andrea Saul added

In his campaign’s latest video, Governor Perry criticizes President Obama for an economy that added zero jobs in August, yet Texas added even fewer and has over a million people unemployed,”

While Romney’s distortion is less accurate than the exaggerations of Perry’s ad, attacking Perry’s record right now is a political necessity. Perry’s three terms as Governor of Texas have outshined the accomplishments of Romney’s one term as Governor of Massachusetts. However, the better strategy for Romney might be to play Perry up as the career politician and himself up as a successful entrepreneur who understands how government works, or in most cases, doesn’t work. But in order for such a strategy to fly, Romney needs to exhibit anti-establishment positions and make bold proposals that don’t just tinker with out arcane tax code, but instead scrap it and do things like create a flat tax. In order for Romney.

Meanwhile, Perry’s ad effectively sets a tone and while it says more about President Obama than himself, it is a good indication that Perry’s campaign does know the issue that can get him votes.

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Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal Set to Endorse Rick Perry for President

Bookmark and Share   On a day that began with what seemed to be big news about Tim Pawlenty endorsing Mitt Romney for President, Texas Governor Rick Perryquickly moved to bury that story by allowing sources to leak the pending endorsement of him by Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal.

Sources state that the announcement will be made before this evenings TEA Party/CNN Republican presidential debate in Florida. The same sources state that Jindal will be attending the debate as a guest of Governor Perry.

The news quickly stepped allover Tim Pawlenty’s  endorsement of Mitt Romney. Romney had been getting some mileage out of having a formal rival for the nomination who was a popular Governor, suddenly throw his support behind him. But the news that Jindal, a popular incumbent Governor was throwing his considerable clout behind Perry quickly changed the story of the day. But beyond today, Jindal’s endorsement will still have much more weight than does Pawlenty’s.

While Pawlenty dropped out of the Republican presidential nomination contest because of a lack of popular support, Bobby Jindal turned down a run for President that did have popular support. Instead, Jindal is seeking reelection to his second term as Governor of Louisiana. More important still is the fact that as a sitting Governor, Jindal has the influence and control over the state Party apparatus that can help sway the outcome of a statewide Republican primary. This is especially the case when it comes to the all important Get Out the Vote Operation.

Jindal’s endorsement also could be a signal of a solid South that lines up behind Perry.

While Pawlenty’s endorsement of Romney does little for any regional strength to the Romney camp, Jindal’s endorsement of Perry has a great deal of influence in the South. Particularly with neighboring states such as Mississippi and Arkansas. It will even have a positive effect on the all important nearby state of Florida.

The Jindal endorsement should not come as a surprise. In the past, the Louisiana Governor has had nothing but praise for his neighboring Governor. Jindal has particularly commended him for always being a friend for Louisiana to count on during the slew of natural disasters that Louisianans has had to deal with. The real surprise would have been if Bobby Jindal didn’t endorse Perry. But as with al things, timing is critical and in this case, Perry’s timing was impeccable.

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Can Perry Win by Describing Social Security as a Ponzi Scheme? Ron Johnson Did? What Do You Think? Take the White House 2012 Poll

Since last week’s G.O.P. presidentia debatem the first one which Texas Governor Rick perry participated in, there has been

consternation about his calling Social Security as a “Ponzi Scheme”. The description even compelled Mitt Romney to declare victory in the debate and to suggest that Parry all but lost the presidential nomination.

The truth though is that an important part of Perry’s Ponzi Scheme description seems to be constantly left out by his critics. That part is where Rick Perry states that is a Ponzi Scheme for future generations. On that he is right. Furthermore; Perry points out that his desire to reform Social Security does not change it for those who are already being funded and for whom the funds exists. The same goes for those who expect to be on it in the relatively near future. His changes are directed for future generations for which the money will not be there to fund under the current system.

Nonetheless, the truth Perry speaks about the “future” of Social Security has been controversial. Fir that reason, this week, White House 2012 asks readers if it is possible for Governor Perry to win the nomination with his opinion of Social Security. To participate in the poll click here or just vote in the poll question box in the top portion of the column to the right of this blog.

As to the question itself, whether Perry’s view of Social Security is risky or not, it should be understood that despite the issue being a political third rail that the left electrifies with propaganda designed to scare senior citizens, it is possible to address the issue of Social Security reform in a campaign and still get elected.

In the recent 2010 midterm elections, underdog Republican businessman Ron Johnson successfully defeated once heavily favored liberal Senator Russ Feingold.

After a hard fought campaign in which the issue of Social Security was often raised, Johnson and the left once again tried to use their Social security scare tactics. Johnson, who like Rick Perry had once referred to Social Security as a Ponzi Scheme, put out the following ad.

Ron Johnson a, is now Senator Johnson and Russ Feingold is now a shocked and angry former Senator.

So don’t write off Rick Perry.  If he plays his cards right and deals with the issue of Social Security reform properly, his Ponzi Scheme definition could help him.

Rick Perry Picks Up Important Endorsement for President

Bookmark and Share   Early in the evening on Wednesday, Texas Governor Rick Perry picked up a valuable endorsement in a critical early primary state. Republican Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives Dean Cannon, endorsed Rick Perry for President. One of the major stated reasons for Cannon’s endorsement was Perry’s highly successful record of job creation in Texas.

A statement released by Cannon read;

“America is at a crossroads. Time and time again, President Obama’s agenda has damaged the confidence of the private sector and made it harder – not easier – to create the jobs Americans desperately need,” Cannon said in a statement. “The President has failed, and it’s time for a different approach.”

“Governor Perry knows that we must reduce government spending. You cannot tax your way into prosperity, and you cannot borrow your way out of debt. Governor Perry’s record of creating jobs and cutting spending is exactly what we need to get our country back on track, and I am excited to support his campaign to get America working again,”

For his part. Perry declared:

“I know that with Speaker Cannon’s help, we will win Florida’s primary, the Republican nomination, and ultimately, the Presidency. “

How much weight Cannon’s endorsement will directly have among Florida voters statewide, is questionable but indirectly this endorsement means much. In addition to opening up the coffers of deep pocketed Floridians who want to remain well connected to the political process in Florida on the state level, Cannon’s decision will also influence the decisions of other local Florida state legislators who want to remain in the good graces of their leader. This will in turn provide Perry with a wealth of volunteers from the local, grass root Republican organizations which each state legislator controls or at least holds significant sway with. After Cannon’s endorsement, those legislators who endorse anyone else are in essence going against the will of their leader. Rightly or wrongly, that doesn’t play well for them. Legislative leaders have long memories and they have a way of making sure that certain bills never see the light of day, if you what I mean?

So while nationally, few know who Dean Cannon is, he could be a critical player in influencing who the next President of the United States is.

In addition to being one of the earliest states to hold a presidential nomination contest, Florida also has the third largest delegation count and is seen as a prelude to the results of the rest of the all important South. As such, it can either solidify a candidates frontrunner status, or take it away from them and give someone else the opportunity to claim that mantle and the momentum that will come with it.

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Is It Wise For Rick Perry To Campaign on Making Government Inconsequential?

Bookmark and Share    When Rick Perry ended his presidential announcement by vowing to work hard to make government inconsequential in our lives, he set in motion a bumpy national drive down the road to the White House. Those words were chosen very carefully. They were reviewed by conservative test groups. They were compared to other similar tag lines and they were settled upon only once a team of talented strategists armed with positive research results to support their opinion, agreed that they were the right words to speak if Rick Perry wanted to win a plurality of the Republican vote.

Publicly stating that you want a job so that you can work hard to make sure that less is done with it is quite bold and a big risk. But not when it comes to the Republican presidential nomination. Republicans want government to do less. They want it to mange less of their lives, make less decisions for them, create fewer limitations and regulations on their lives, and take and spend less of its money. Indeed, as made evident by the rise of the Taxed Enough Already movement, quite a  number of Americans have come to echo this sentiment. So it can be said that Rick Perry’s call for a government that is as inconsequential in our lives as possible, is a good way to win the Republican presidential nomination. The quote is powerful phraseology that allows Republicans and voters fed up with government, to understand that Rick Perry gets it.

But will the collective thought process of the American general electorate get it in November?

That is the risk that Rick Perry takes in his bold statement.

Perry is banking on the thinking that after seeing an extremely activist, liberal government in action, they have come to understand that government can in fact go too far and do too much. It is essentially an ideological argument. And while the argument has been settled by the Republican and conservative base vote, it has not yet been completely established by the general electorate as a whole. But supporting Perry’s position is some yearly polling done by the nonpartisan Gallup organization.  It has shown that except for three years in the early 2000’s, most Americans identify themselves as being conservative.

Recently, in a years worth of nationwide surveys, Gallup found that there are more self-identified conservatives than liberals in every single state in America. The study even found that Rhode Island is the state with the largest number of self professed liberals at 29.3%,  but even there, 29.9% of the population define their political persuasion as conservative.  That’s a .6% lead over liberals.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that there are more registered Republicans than Democrats but it does demonstrate that the conservative brand has far more positive connotations than the liberal brand does and is much easier to sell than the liberal ideology.

Based upon his powerful statement, Rick Perry is willing to bet that those numbers will hold up next Fall when the American electorate has a choice between possibly him and President Obama.

Rick Perry seems to be ready to make the 2012 election an ideological battle, a referendum between libertarian conservatism and socialist liberalism. Based upon the numbers, on its surface the gambit is a good one.  Or is it?

It did not work for Barry Goldwater in 1964, but it did work for Reagan in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1988. Then again, in 1964, Barry Goldwater’s conservatism was up against a relatively strongly positioned Lyndon Johnson. In 1980 Ronald Reagan’s conservatism was running against the not so well positioned, wounded presidency of Jimmy Carter. and in 1988 George H. W. Bush was opposing a weak candidate with a poorly run campaign.  Under the circumstances, President Obama is probably closer to the Carter position than the Johnson position.   Yet President Obama is actually hoping to make the 2012 election a referendum on ideology.

Doing so will take the focus off of his record, which based on its results, will surely lose. So the distraction of ideology is just what the President wants. And he is probably correct in wanting it that way.

While most Americans identify themselves as conservative, they are also compassionate, hence former President George W. Bush’s 2000 campaign introducing himself as a “compassionate conservative”. It is this compassion that President Obama hopes to distract us from his record with and if allowed to do so, he could win. It is for that reason that President Obama will not let the electorate ever forget Rick Perry’s quote to make government inconsequential, if Perry were to be his opponent. President Obama would appreciate the chance to try to paint conservatism as selfish and greedy ideology that is heartless and inconsiderate and therefore not the America we want to live in. He will paint the conservative ideology as the one of and for Wall Street and big business and the liberal ideology as the Party of the people, the Party that has your back.

To be sure, the Democrats will do this under any circumstances. Their appeals to our emotions rather than our logic is the key to their success and it often works. But Rick Perry is confident that the liberal extremism of the Obama Administration has been a lurch so far to the left that it has given the American public ideological whiplash. He is hoping that the extremist activism of the Obama government has highlighted such an abundant degree of liberal thinking that the American people clearly see how antithetical liberalism is to American democratic principles that voters are willing to lurch quickly and sharply to the right in an attempt to take corrective measures that restore balance and gets the nation back on track. That is exactly why in the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans picked up historic gains in the House.

If things keep going in the direction they are, President Obama’s last hope may be a Hail Mary pass to the emotions that tries to distract the American people, but if Rick Perry can keep the electorate’s eye on the ball, he will be able to intercept the ball and it run it back for a touch down.

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