Is TEA Party Favorite Niki Haley Readying to Endorse Herman Cain or Mitt Romney?

    While endorsements of one politician by other politicians do not exactly change the minds about those candidates who they like or dislike, some endorsements are more important than others. Such is the case with South Carolina Governor and TEA movement favorite Niki Haley.

In addition to having influence among some TEA movement leaders who have committed themselves to her and the limited government, constitution respecting, conservative cause she fights for, she is also the influential leader of a state whose early primary could be a tipping point in the quest to name a Republican presidential nominee. Not only does her approval garner much media attention, it also provides for significant organizational strength from the state Republican Party and TEA movement activists.

Furthermore, given the timing of Haley’s state’s G.O.P. presidential primary, which precedes the important delegate rich Forida primary by one week, her endorsement could help to make winning in Sunshine State a very real possibility for the candidate who has won South Carolina. And winning both of those states could be just enough to kill the forward momentum of those who lose in both states.

So while the endorsement’s of other Governors have value, some, like Nikki Haley, have more value than others.

With this in mind, in recent weeks, both Mitt Romney and Rick Perry have been egaged in a sort of endorsement battle involving evryone from Governors, to state legislators, county execs and congressional leaders but the focus is on Governors.

Last week on the day that Mitt Romney announced the surprise endorsement of former Minnesota Governor and presidential rival Tim Pawenty, Romney seemed to be on the road to consolidating establishment support behind him. But on that same day, not long after the Pawlenty announcement , Rick Perry announced that Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal was endorsing him.

Comparing the two, while Pawlenty is a former Governor who is losing influence as time goes by, Jindal is an incumbent Governor, running for reelection and seen as a rising Republican. That was game, set, match for Perry that day.

Shortly after that, Romney announced that he received the endorsement of  27 New Hampshire legislators. Perry subsequently announced twenty one South Carolina GOP Legislators were endorsing him for President.

Romney then announced former Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman’s endorsements of him, but Perry scooped Romney again.  this time by announcing that he was endorsed by Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval. That one hurt. Nevada is considered fertile territory for Romney and a loss in that state’s relatively early contest would be a setback for Romney.

Now most recently, Perry announced that he was receiving conservative Governor Sam Brownback’s endorsement. That one kind of put Perry ahead in the endorsement battle.

But now we learn from from the National Journal’s Tim Alberta that the critical endorsement of South Carolina’s Niki Haley, looks like it will be awarded to Mitt Romney.

During a speech to grass root Republicans and Party leaders at an annual G.O.P. Leadership Conference in Mackinac, Michigan, Governor Haley called next year’s contest “the most important presidential election we’ve had in a long time,” and she told the audience that need to get behind a republican running for President “who puts substance ahead of style.”

Governor Haley said. “We’re not going to vote for personality — we saw where that got us last time,”. She added “We need a true executive to get us back on track.”

After her official remarks, in an interview with Hot Line On Call, Niki Haley explained that she is looking for a candidate who has a proven business background and is “An executive — that means business people”.

She further added;

“What I’m looking for is someone who understands the debt, someone who understands that we need to be energy independent, someone who will… get people back to work.”

Of the existing G.O.P. presidential candidates, Governor Haley’s description could point two one of only two people………….. Mitt Romney or Herman Cain.

A part of me believes that her language which stresses an aggressive focus on the keywords and phrases “a true executive” and “business people”,is most apropos for TEA Party language used to describe Herman Cain. But there are two consideration here that lead me to believe she actually means Mitt Romney.

The first is this. If she intends to endorse Herman Cain, doing so sooner rather than later would behoove Herman Cain. It would give him access to much needed campaign fundraising capabilities. It would also provide some of the credibility to his candidacy that he needs in order to make many voters who are reluctant about how far Cain go in the primary battle, and alow them to view him as a more viable candidate than they currently see him to be.

So if Niki Haley intends to endorse Cain, the time for that was yesterday, before the Florida debate and its weekend straw poll.

The other consideration is that Mitt Romney was there for Nikki Haley when she needed it during her campaign first for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, and then again during her gubernatorial election. He stumped with her, and he provided significant financial contributions to her campaign. This is not to say that Haley owes this to Mitt Romney, but after first Sarah Palin who was also there for Haley, she kind of does owe it to him. Furthermore, Haley’s focused language on being an executive and business leader, fits quite well with Romney’s own painstaking attempts to paint himself as a private sector business leader, and not a career politician.

So while I will not say for sure that Nikki Haley’s endorsement is for Romney instead of Cain, I will say that Romney does look more likely to be the candidate that she gets behind. Whoever she means though, it doesn’t sound like she is referring to Rick Perry.  and if Romney does get her backing, it will be more than a slam dunk for him . It’ll be a three pointer that leaves Perry saying “ouch”.

Trunkline 2012: Friday’s Campaign Trail News – 9/23/11

• The day after the Fox News/Google Presidnetial Debate.  Complete assessment, transcript and video of the debate
• Perry on shaky ground? Doubts among some in GOP
• Perry’s cringe-worthiest debate moment
• White Knight Watch: “With Gov. Rick Perry’s seeming implosion at last night’s debate, conservatives who desire a Republican nominee not named Mitt Romney seem to be hurting for viable options.”
• ‘Also-rans’ in GOP race have plenty of reasons to keep running
• Bachmann unveils new strategies
• How Saturday’s FL straw poll differs from Ames
• “What, I’m Funny? What the F is So Funny About Me?!”…Plenty Barry!
•  The California Republican Party has established their 2012 Delegate Selection plan.
• And from the “Libs will make this election interesting section”……”Village Voice Critic Calls For Mass Murder of NY Billionaires… To Feed Poor & Pay for Repertory Theater”

Social War Threatens Daniels’ Truce

Governor Mitch Daniels has an opportunity to be a breakout star in the 2012 primary. He is seen by many to be reserved and quiet, but he has done an incredible job in Indiana and has caught the eye of many because of it.

Daniels has also caught the eye of independent groups as he has called for a truce on social issues to focus on the nation’s fiscal problem. This has caused many to see him as someone who can unite the country to face our debt head on. However, Daniels’ truce is about to receive it’s biggest test. In Indiana, state finances and social conservatism are about to collide.

The Indiana house and senate have overwhelmingly passed a bill that would end state funding for Planned Parenthood and other abortion providers, ban Medicaid from being used at facilities that provide abortion, and will require doctors to give women information on the abortion process from the fetus perspective before performing the procedure. The bill will save Indiana millions of dollars, but it will also turn social liberals sour on Daniels if he signs it.

Mitch Daniels faces a make or break decision

This is a moment of truth for this potential GOP nominee. The Indiana congress has the votes to override a veto. Mitch Daniels does not need to sign this bill. But whether he signs it or not, this decision will set the tone for a Mitch Daniels presidential candidacy. For someone who recommended a truce on social issues, Mitch Daniels has found himself standing in the center of the battle field with a gun in his hand. Which way will he turn?

This one decision has the potential to win or lose the TEA Party and religious base of the GOP. With that base, and the strong fiscal record he has already developed, Mitch Daniels would be lacking only a shot of charisma to sweep the 2012 primary. Without the TEA Party and religious base, Daniels’ best hope is a vice president spot on the ticket.

Considering his signature is not needed, this choice may seem inconsequential. With 2012 in view, this decision means everything. So far, Daniels has stated that he hasn’t made a decision yet on whether or not to sign the bill.

Prosser Win Confirms Conservative Sentiments

Democrats in Wisconsin may want to think twice about continuing to pursue recall votes against Republican Senators who just saved their state by making some tough choices. In fact, Wisconsin is showing that despite major blowback, the country is ready for a party to step to the plate and make those tough choices.

Justice David Prosser

It seemed like Prosser would have an easy election after taking more than 50% of the vote in a non-partisan primary against pro-union, liberal Kloppenburg. But after unions within and outside of the state poured millions of dollars into Kloppenburg’s campaign, it seemed like the state-wide election for Wisconsin Supreme Court would be closer. In fact, union cabbies offered free rides for union voters to the polls. Wisconsin liberals were organized for America and the Prosser/Kloppenburg election became a referendum on Scott Walker.

In fact, a Kloppenburg victory would have swayed the state Supreme Court to a 4-3 Liberal court. Walker’s union busting, budget saving legislation would be a footnote in Wisconsin history.

Walker had made the tough conservative choices. The city was nearly shut down as union members were bused in from other states to crowd and trash the capitol. Democrat Senators fled the state to shut down the legislative process and kindergarten teachers were sending death threats to Republican Senators while staying home with fraudulent sick notes from liberal doctors. On the blogs and comment sections across the web, Democrats were thanking Scott Walker for 2012 on a silver platter, and I even saw one comment talking about how they would get their revenge on the “scabbers”. It felt like a choreographed fight scene from Newsies.

The lead in the Prosser/Kloppenburg election kept changing and kept everyone on the edge of their seats throughout the night, and with a lead of about 200 votes Democrats claimed victory the next day. A recount was possible, but it seemed as though the left was right. Going after public unions to cut a $3 billion state deficit would be the end of the Conservative tidal wave that swept the country in 2010. It was a dark night.

But the next day, we discovered that the AP vote total did not include all the votes. Prosser had actually won by a very comfortable 7,500 votes. If you want to know how significant the Prosser win is, just Google his name. You will find as many stories as you did about Iraq a couple months after the surge strategy started. When stories about successful Republican politicians or policies disappear from the mainstream media, you know they are significant.

This was a statewide election where the same Wisconsin voters who elected Scott Walker came out again and elected Justice David Prosser. Anyone who thinks 2010 was a fluke and that an Obama re-election is a forgone conclusion should look at the national union mob that was re-defeated in Wisconsin.

Americans are ready to cut spending and deal with the deficit.

AP Gets Early Start on Nov 2nd, 2012 Headlines

A Perfect GOP Candidate Is Hard To Find. Yes, that is the unbiased AP headline of a story published today by AP writer Phillip Elliot. Elliot then presents us with an expose on exactly why every potential Republican candidate in the 2012 primary season is unworthy of Republican votes.

John Huntsman worked as an ambassador for Obama. Mitt Romney implemented Romneycare in Massachusetts. Newt Gingrich had two affairs and two failed marriages. Sarah Palin has had “countless impolitical moments”.

An infamous premature headline

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For every potential candidate, Elliot has a reason why they should lose.

Santorum is no good, he lost a Senate election in 2006. I wonder if Elliot knows that Abraham Lincoln lost the 1858 Senate race to Stephen Douglas, before defeating that same Stephen Douglas two years later in the Presidential race.

Tim Pawlenty apparently is too much into green energy. And of course, Haley Barbour is a racist, southern hick.

Of course, no freshman Republican is even considered in this article. After all, anyone can tell you that two years as a Senator does not give someone enough experience to run for President. Not if you are a Republican, that is.

I don’t remember the article about finding the perfect Democrat candidate in 2012. If Barbour has to defend his statements on segregation, should Obama defend his anti-white statements in his books? What about Obama’s church affiliation? How about his many “impolitical moments”?

Beyond mere gaffs and embarrassing associations, Obama brought us the failed stimulus plan that increased our debt over a trillion dollars with nothing to show for it. He gave us the unconstitutional Obamacare law and is currently in contempt of court for his executive order banning oil drilling in parts of the gulf. Obama’s attorney general has refused to follow through with voter intimidation prosecutions, refused to uphold more than one federal law on the books, and has betrayed his own racist leanings. Obama has now plunged us into a conflict with Libya where no one seems to know what the goals or end game is and where the only objective seems to be to blow stuff up but ensure that we are not responsible for winning.

But it’s not just Republicans who have reasons to not re-elect Obama. After promising to walk the picket lines wherever union rights are being denied, Obama was absent in the union showdown of our generation in Wisconsin. Obama has reversed his promise to close Guantanamo Bay, and continues to push back the date to bring our troops home from Iraq and Afghanistan. In fact, Obama’s legacy in Afghanistan is a surge strategy headed up by General David Petreaus. While Republicans are frustrated by the incompetent handling of the attacks on Libya, Democrats (if they are consistent) should be upset that we are getting involved at all. Obama is turning out to be more of a war hawk than his predecessor. He went back on his campaign promise to avoid an insurance mandate, skipped single payer, and extended the Bush tax cuts.

Where is the AP story about how hard it is to find a perfect Democrat candidate for 2012? The story of the 2012 election is not written yet. That is up to the voters. Do we want four more years of President Barack Obama?

Romney’s best hope: a wide field

After winning the New Hampshire straw poll and coming in first in current polling of 2012 primary hopefuls, someone might think that Mitt Romney is on his way to represent the Republican party in 2012. They could be wrong.

Mitt was a top contender in 2008. His message of fiscal conservatism and business smarts made many Republicans wish the primary had turned out differently towards the later half of 2008 when the economy was in the tank, gas prices were at $4 a gallon, and every other campaign ad had video of John McCain announcing that the economy was not his strong suit.

Now, with the economy in nearly the same condition two years later, Romney’s poll numbers shouldn’t be a shock. In fact, he has led the Republican field for much of 2010 and would beat Obama in 2012 according to more than one 2010 poll.

 

New Hampshire shows Romney has found his niche

So why would I think that Romney might not be the Republican contender in 2012? 24% of Republican support will not win in a narrow primary field. Consider Romney’s closest competition in the recent Rasmussen poll: Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, and Newt Gingrich. Even his 35% in New Hampshire is ominous with other placing contenders being libertarian right winger Ron Paul, TEA Partiers Pawlenty and Palin, old school conservative Rick Santorum, TEA Party conservative constitutionalists DeMint, Bachmann, and occasional right wing radio host Herman Cain.

Although the entire field in the New Hampshire straw poll is very promising, the candidate who is perhaps closest to Romney’s brand and image would be The Donald, who got 1% of the vote.

If Family Values conservatives and the TEA Party faithful are able to coalesce around one specific candidate, it will not be Romney. In fact, in the Family Research Council straw poll earlier this year, Mike Pence won with Huckabee coming in second. Romney may have easily won in the northeast, but out in Iowa he is polling just behind Huckabee.

As the former governor of Massachusetts, fair or not, Romney has a history. He wasn’t always pro-life. He had his own version of universal healthcare that passed in Massachusetts. Romney has not helped his conservative credentials by avoiding identification with the TEA Party and keeping a low profile in the 2010 wave of conservative electoral victories.

Romney had a strong showing in New Hampshire. But what will happen in the rest of the country when the field narrows? what about when Mike Huckabee drops out of the race, or Sarah Palin? What about Ron Paul, Jim DeMint, or Mike Pence? Will Romney be the fallback choice of their supporters? Or will it be Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, Haley Barbour or some other conservative who has inserted themselves into the current popular right wing movement in this country? 35% will only get him so far.