Cain’s strong numbers baffle all but voters

Cain still polls strong

When discussing republican presidential candidate and front-runner Herman Cain, the reaction one receives is contingent upon with whom you speak.  When listening to established political pundits, the are miffed.  They are shocked at his seemingly sudden rise.  They have no explaination for it.  They attempt to explain it based on their previous experience with campaigns and elections.  The best explaination is actually under everyone’s nose.  The flaw in their theories is that they seem to, yet again, under-estimate the strength of the tea party.   Now is the first time we have had to contend with the tea party in a presidential election.  One year ago, the 2010 elections threw many state governments and even The House of Representatives, a curve ball.  Many seats were not only taken by republicans, but taken by tea party backed candidates.  Being a tea party backed candidate is differentiated by passing the tea party litmus test and maintaining that high score when pop quizes are administered by the voters.  So now, let’s see how Cain has such strong support and why his numbers will not change…unless he fails the litmus test.

All republican candidates have been given the tea party litmus test.  All republican candidates seek the approval of the tea party, knowing they are the key to clinching their primary win.  While mainstream media sees the tossing of support from several other candidates as flickle and fluid, there actually is a method to what seems to be madness.  The tea party litmus test consists of three commandements.  The components are as follows: The first component is that thou must be authentic.  You can’t be too closely attached to anything mainstream, status quo or business-as-usual.  The further you are from it, the more you appeal to a tea party voter.  This includes all media, political contacts, previous work experience, legislation and associations.  It will all be scrutinized thoroughly.  The second tea party commandent is thou shalt not tread on my constitional rights.  This includes implied, direct and covert actions.  Anything that could appear as a violation of individual constitutional right and order will be condemned and so shall the candidate.  The third and final commandment is thou shall not raise taxes.  When they say no increase, they mean no increase.  Staying on budget, cutting waste and directing influence away from Wasington is central to this decree.

Now that we know the commandments, let’s analyze how each former front-runners took the tea party litmus test and failed.  When support shifts towards a candidate, they are taking the tea party litmus test.  If they maintain it, they are passing.  If not, they fail and it will never return.  Mitt Romney has always been seen as a front-runner.  However, most primary voters are seeking an alternative to him.  Why, you may ask?  Romney fails the tea party litmus test because he violates two commandments.  Tea party voters do not see him as authentic.  He is seen as an establishment crony.  He cannot shake the stigma of Romneycare (essentially making him public enemy number one to tea pary voters).  He has run and lost before both as governor and as a presidential nominee.  Many say this gives him the perception of a loser. 

The tea party voter will want the Romney alternative.  Initially, all support went towards Michele Bachmann.  Though we love the fact that she has a large family and is described as a tea party darling, she is not able to pass the litmus test because she violates the first commandment.  Though seen as an outsider, this is not the type of environment where voters are forgiving of those in Congress.  In fact, voter’s dislike Congress more than they dislike Obama.  So, away went Bachmann.

Rick Perry threw his ten-gallon cowboy hat into the ring and support shifted to him immediately.  Mainstream media said his debates are what sunk him.  That may be partially true.  The debates are where he failed the litmus test because he broke all three commandments.  Requiring young women to be vaccianated for cervical cancer violates “thou shalt not infringe on my constitutional rights” and “thou shan’t be linked to mainstream or big business.”  Fair or not, it is held against him by voters.  It took away his authenticity.  His stance on the education of illegal immigrants violates the third commandment.  This is seen as waste of tax-payer funds.  These voters don’t care for any rationale behind it.  It is of no consequence.  So, once discovered, support waned immediately.

Now, we have Herman Cain as the front-runner.  Despite  what could have been a scandal for most candidates, he still stays at the top of the polls.  This is because he has kept all three commandments so far.  Since the story broke from a mainstream media outlet and the accusers remain annonymous, most put no creedance into the story.  Even if they had revealed themselves, it would not have mattered.  Unless it comes from a trusted, conservative outlet, it will do little to sway Cain’s support.  The fact that it is rumored to have been leaked by a Perry or Romney consultant just bodes well for Cain.  Those candidates have violated the first commandment already.  Therefore, no one will listen.  The more media gaffes Cain makes, the more authentic he becomes to voters.  This just solidifies his public image to the voter and frankly, they like it.  In addition, he has no record in public office that would have allowed him to violate the second or third commandments.  Essentially, as long as he and his policies line up with the three commandents, he may very well ride this wave to the end.

Cain Campaign Collapsing?

    As many Republican presidential campaigns are just beginning to increase their levels of activity, a string of cancellations seem to indicate that the campaign of  Herman Cain is doing just the opposite. But it is the type of events that he has withdrawn from which force one to wonder if there is not something more behind the cutting back of activity.

For an underdog campaign, earned media events, the type of events that cost hardly anything but afford you great exposure, are as a good as having ownership of a toll booth on the state turnpike, during rush hour.  You just don’t pass such an opportunity up. Yet the Cain campaign has done just that by pulling out of a Thursday evening appearance on the Colbert Report, a speaking engagement at an event in Cedar Rapids, Iowa , and a cancellation of his giving the keynote address at the Fayette County Republican Picnic in Iowa.

What’s more is, that there seems to be no good reasons for these cancellations. A review of the campaign’s schedule does not reveal any schedule conflicts with the three cancelled appearances. In fact the Cain campaign has nothing at all scheduled on the three dates in question. This all leads one to wonder as to why Herman Cain would give up the chance to appear before a national audience on the Colbert Report , and with the Iowa Straw Poll just about two weeks away, why would he pass up two premium speaking engagements in the very state that will conduct that all important symbolic poll?

From the very beginning, Herman Cain’s presidential path was plotted out on a steep incline. Still his ability to articulate a truly conservative message, combined with the appeal of his outsider status, made him a novel candidate that many wanted to hear more from. This was especially the case after the first nationally aired Republican presidential debate that took place on Fox News. Some of his most enthusiastic supporters came from those within the TEA movement. But since that first Fox News debate, something known as the Bachmann campaign entered the picture.

Michele Bachmann’s entry in to the Republican presidential nomination contest sucked much of the air out of Herman Cain’sign campa. But Bachmann alone can not be blamed for the faltering Cain Campaign.   A slew of staff resignations, especially within his Iowa organization, have added to the slowing down of Cain’s momentum.

Still, these factors would not explain why “The Hermanator” cancelled three very valuable, expense free, high profile events that do not conflict with any other “scheduled” campaign activity. Additionally, Cain has only two campaign events scheduled this week and non until at least Friday of next week. Such a slimming down of the schedule leads me to believe that there are one of two things at work here. Herman Cain could be sensing that his campaign’s momentum is not at a pace that is fast enough to catch up to the front of the field of candidates. As a result Cain is therefore just biding his time till the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames, in case by some chance he finishes strong enough to give him hope of more forward momentum. Or there could be a more serious and most unfortunate circumstance behind it all.

In 2006, Cain began a battle with stage IV cancer in both his colon and his liver. Those suffering with Stage IV tumors have only a 10 percent survival rate, yet Herman Cain bravely and miraculously beat the odds. Studies have indicated that the chance for recurrence of certain cancers such as Stage IV colorectal cancer is in excess of 41%. While this is purely conjecture, the early treatment for a reoccurrence could explain why Cain has been cancelling events instead of  just folding up the presidential campaign tent. Hopefully, this is not the case, but a lack of any further explanation of a schedule that is light on events and heavy on cancellations, gives one cause to wonder what exactly is behind it all.

The most likely scenario is that Herman Cain is just accepting the writing on the wall regarding his chances of winning the nomination among the existing field of candidates.

For many, it looks like Herman Cain’s campaign reached its peek, the height of which was now many weeks ago. Even in the area of fundraising, while Cain’s most recent quarterly filing with the FEC boasted a haul of $2.46 million, was half the amount that Michele Bachmann raised. Cain’s fundraising was still better than others like Gary Johnson and Rick Santorum who raised a measly $582,348 but when compared to frontrunner Mitt Romney’s second quarter report of $18.25 million, Herman Cain’s 2.46 million in fundraising is a mere drop in the bucket .

Tim Pawlenty Could Stand To Gain While The Big Names Sit On The Sidelines

The 1st GOP Presidential debate is in the books. There are those who feel it lacked the “Wow” factor that it would have had if the top polling candidates had taken part. With Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin all declining to attend, the field was filled with candidates whose names are not well known on a national scale. Texas congressman Ron Paul is probably the exception to that statement but his public persona and Libertarian views have never played well to most in the GOP.

Of the remainder of the field that included former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, Former Godfather’s Pizza CEO and conservative talk show host Herman Cain, Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, it may have been Pawlenty that came out with the most to gain from the absence of the big name candidates.

Most of those polled said that they came away with a better opinion of Herman Cain than any other candidate. I agree. Cain came away as the non-politician’s politician but he is an unknown to most voters and will need much more than this debate to get the recognition he will need to mount a serious run. Santorum is known to a certain degree through his work on Fox News but has established himself as the social issues candidate so far in a time where the economy will likely reign supreme. Gary Johnson is the poor man’s Ron Paul and did little to move up the ladder in the debate and at points looked uncomfortable on the stage. Ron Paul is simply Ron Paul. Most Republican’s tend to agree with his economic stances and most independents with his social stances but he has difficulty communicating them in a manner that helps him in a conservative GOP primary.

That leaves Pawlenty, who did little to “Wow” the audience but came across as a solid candidate when put next to the CEO with little experience, the Libertarian’s with little communication skills and the evangelical social issue guy, as a possible challenger to the big name candidates who themselves have issues that will be exploited if and when they decide to enter the race. Romney has to answer for his health care program he implemented while Governor of MA. Gingrich has had marriage issues that have haunted him for years. Huckabee has issues regarding his stances on crime while Governor of Arkansas and Palin, well she has always incurred the wrath of the media and I expect if she decides to run in 2012 it will be no different.

So although he may have not brought the “wow” factor with him to South Carolina last Thursday night, it could be Tim Pawlenty who very well takes away the most from the debate. Although Herman Cain may have hit the “wow” factor it was Pawlenty who by reason of recognition stands to gain the most from the decision of the big names to sit this one out. If he stays on message and the more recognizable names continue to sit dormant, Tim Pawlenty has one up on the other candidates.

Herman Cain Takes First Step Towards A Run for President

In a press release issued on Wednesday, radio personality, entrepreneurand conservative political activists Herman Cain declared that the amount of support he has received has encouraged to move closer toward a run for President. He issued the following press release;

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Wednesday, January 12, 2011 Ellen Carmichael, (678) 601-2772

ellen.carmichael@hermancain.com

Herman Cain Announces Presidential Exploratory Committee
Business Executive to Test Waters for Potential White House Bid

STOCKBRIDGE, GA- Business executive Herman Cain announced today that he has officially established a presidential exploratory committee, Friends of Herman Cain, to test the waters for a possible White House bid.

After receiving overwhelming encouragement from supporters and donors across the U.S., I have decided to form a presidential exploratory committee, Cain said. During this time, we will examine the extent of financial resources and grassroots support that would be critical to winning the Republican nomination.

Cain is best known for his role as President and CEO of Godfathers Pizza, Inc., where he led the company from the brink of bankruptcy to profitability in just 14 months. He has also served as an executive of other Fortune 500 Companies, such as Pillsbury and Burger King.

He served as chairman of the Federal Reserve in Kansas City, as well as the President and CEO of the National Restaurant Association. Cain was a senior economic adviser to the Dole/ Kemp presidential campaign in 1996.

Cain hosts a nightly radio program, The Herman Cain Show, one of the highest-rated shows in the Atlanta media market. He is also a syndicated columnist.

Friends of Herman Cain is a registered non-profit in the state of Georgia, and the names of exploratory committee members will be released at a later date.

For more information, please visit the newly launched http://www.hermancain.com.

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Herman Cain is a corporate executive, radio talk show host and syndicated columnist from Atlanta, Georgia. Mr. Cain previously served as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve of Kansas City and as the President and CEO of the National Restaurant Association. He is known especially for his role in economic policymaking and as a leader in the conservative grassroots movement. In January 2011, Mr. Cain established a presidential exploratory committee. For more information, visit http://www.hermancain.com, http://www.facebook.com/THEHermanCain and http://www.twitter.com/THEHermanCain

Presidential Exploratory Committee Established by Popular Conservative Talk Show Host Herman Cain

Herman Cain

Herman Cain isfar from beinga household name but he is an incredibly accomplished businessman who has helped move a few household names like Pillsbury and Burger King. He is also anauthor, columnist, popular Georgia based conservative talk show host, and a former candidate for the Republican Senate nomination from Georgia. Today in addition to his entrepeneurial and media works, he remains a major grassroots,political activist who is trying to organize a 100,000 advocates in every congressional district in the United States in support of conservative issues such as a strong national defense, tax cuts, energy independence, defending the U.S. Constitution, restructuring Social Security and capping and cutting government spending. Now he is a potential candidate for the Republican presidential nomination.

Cain originally hinted at his intentions during the 2010 Southern Republican Leadership Conference. At the time, he declared that there could very well be a dark horse candidate in the Republican race for the presidential nomination.

Now Herman Cain has formed a presidential exploratory committee.

Always passionate about the issues, after a double bout with cancer that Cain successfully defeated in April of 2010, hewas compelled to run for the White House because he felt that he had more work to do and more to accomplish and because of just how serious the issues we face are.

Cain knows that he is a longshot but he is still quite serious and the formation of an exploratory committee will allow him to test the waters before he gives up his work and resigns from every position he holds on several corporate boardsand gives up every column he writes and the talk show that he hosts every weekday.

The energetic, potential, candidate believes that a businessmans leadership is what we need and he feels that he has what it takes to lead us in the right direction. He is beginning the nomination process early because he claims that his biggest regret in his failed 2004 senate bid was that he didnt start early enough.

If Cain moves from exploratory committee to official campaign committee, he is sure to energize the debate, keep his fellow candidates on their tows, and build at least a small but strong base of support for himself.