The latest White House 2012 analysis of polls, conditions, and circumstances in individual states projects a slightly smaller Electoral College vote total for Governor Mitt Romney than he had last week, but Romney still remains above the magic number of 270, that he needs to win in the Electoral College.
This week, WH12 has seen the battleground states of Iowa and Nevada taken out of Romney’s column and designated as toss-up states. This switch has taken away 12 electoral votes from the Romney-Ryan ticket and brought them from last week’s total of 291 electoral votes , to 279 electoral votes this week. But as Mitt Romney sees 12 votes go from him to the undecided column, President Obama sees his previous Electoral College projection decrease by 10 votes as WH12 now takes Wisconsin out of the President’s column and classifies it as a toss-up state. So President Obama now finds his Electoral College vote drop from 247 last week, to 237 this week.
But the big story here ends up not being the new numbers projected in White House 2012’s analysis. The real story here is the increasing importance that these numbers places on New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa, and probably most of all… Wisconsin.
Based upon WH12’s current level of confidence in Mitt Romney having solid leads in all his base states* and strong leads in the once very competitive states of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, combined with our increasing confidence in Romney’s ability to at least squeak out a win in Ohio, what we find ourselves with here is a race that really hinges upon Romney’s need to win any combination of New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa, and or Wisconsin.
With former toss-up states like Colorado, Virginia, and Florida projected to be solidly behind Romney, as seen in the map below, all the Romney-Ryan tickets needs to secure victory is Ohio. With Romney’s base states, and locks on the battleground states of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina,and Virginia, if Romney can squeak by in Ohio, he can lose New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa, and Wisconsin and still win with 5 more electoral votes than he needs to secure the presidency. That would produce an electoral vote of 275 for Romney, to 263 for President Obama.
But Ohio is too close for comfort for Romney to count on. So the Romney-Ryan ticket must secure an optional path to victory to rely upon. Based upon the current projection which gives Romney the battlegrounds of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and New Hampshire, , if President Obama wins Ohio, the only state that Romney needs is Wisconsin. In that scenario, even if the Obama-Biden ticket won the remaining battleground states of Iowa and Nevada, Mitt would still win in the Electoral College with 271 electoral votes to Obama’s 267 electoral votes.
Without Ohio, this New Hampshire plus Wisconsin combination to victory for Romney is currently the best and most logical strategy to pursue.
In New Hampshire, the Romney-Ryan ticket is behind Obama-Biden by only approximately 1%. That is well below the 2.2% margin of error that WH12’s projection formula adds to Romney’s numbers in an attempt to compensate for the erroneous turnout models that pollsters are using in their polls. So by WH12’s standard, Romney is actually ahead of President Obama in New Hampshire by approximately 1.2%. Then there is Wisconsin.
While Real Clear Politics has Obama ahead of Romney by approximately 2.8% in Wisconsin according to White House 2012 that is only a .06% lead for the President. It is a lead so small that that it could easily by overcome. Especially if its favorite son, Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, focusses on Wisconsin during this last two weeks of the election. That is a point White House 2012 made last week in a post entitled “Checkmating Obama with Wisconsin: A Romney Win in the Badger State Dooms Obama“. Furthermore, Ryan’s focus on Wisconsin could also produce an overflow effect that impacts the close contest in Iowa which borders Wisconsin and possibly provide the margin of victory for the G.O.P. ticket there.
What this all means is that if projections that give Romney his base states and the critical battlegrounds of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, but he losses Ohio, the Romney-Ryan ticket can still win the election if they take Wisconsin and either New Hampshire, Iowa, or Nevada. But under this situation, if Romney does not win Wisconsin, Romney would have to win all three states of New Hampshire, Iowa, and Nevada.
So it becomes clear to us that while several states remain quite important in this election, if Mitt Romney’s momentum continues to hold, Wisconsin and New Hampshire may be the states that offer him the best assurance of a victory in the Electoral College. Especially if Ohio remains as tight as it currently is and goes down to the wire as a state so close that its results might not be known until days or even weeks after they are litigated in the courts. However, the outcome of such litigation would be meaningless if Romney can put New Hampshire and Wisconsin safely in his final Electoral College vote total.
In the meantime, while White House 2012’s current projection classifies 22 electoral votes as toss-ups, no matter which way they ultimately go, the most Barack Obama could get is 259 electoral votes. That would leave and Romney with at least 20 more electoral votes than Obama and nine more than Romney needs to win in the Electoral College.
Meanwhile, if Barack Obama fails to curtail the Romentum that we currently see, it won’t be long before White House 2012 finds itself issuing the very best but still realistic projected outcome that Mitt Romney could see. That projection may end up with a far more lopsided Electoral College than anyone is expecting. As seen in the map below, existing trends may soon establish a projection that looks like th e map below. It’s a Romney led Electoral College result of of 302 electoral votes to 236 electoral votes.
Right now, that is the best case scenario for Romney but if current trends to continue, it is the result we are most likely to see. It is also a result that would include something new… the splitting of Maine’s electoral vote between Romney and Obama. Maine, like Nebraska splits their electoral vote between their congressional districts. Some recent polling has shown that in Maine’s second congressional district, Romney was leading Obama 49 to 44%. If that holds up, it would be the first time Maine ever actually split it’s electoral vote. And it would also give Romney at least 1 electoral vote from a region of the country that Romney has been all but written off in.
Filed under: Electoral College Maps, General Issues & Events, Iowa, New Hampshire, State & National Polls, Strategy, Wisconsin | Tagged: Anthony Del Pellegrino, can romney win without Ohio, election map, election prediction, election predictions, election projection, electoral college map, electoral college prediction, electoral college split in Maine, how romney can without ohio, kempite, Romentum, Romney Still Winning the Election in the Electoral College But Wisconsin and New Hampshire Are Becoming Critically Important, Romney winning by a much larger margin than predicted, Romney winning in Maine's second congressional district, Romney winning the electoral college, the eve of the final presidential debate, White House 2012, Wisconsin and New Hampshire could decide the election, Wisconsin and New Hampshire in the electoral college, wordpress political blogs | Leave a comment »
With Obama Dropping Like a Stone, Liberals Are Replaying the Race Card in a Big Way
As liberals begin to fear that Mitt Romney is proving to be a better leader and candidate than they once expected he could be, they have begun to make a noticeable shift back to their traditional tactics of divide and conquer by returning to an emphasis on playing the race card. This disturbing reemergence of their ugly, disingenuous, racially divisive tactics is beginning to rear its ugly head again in every liberal narrative being offered in regards to the presidential election. Evidence of this can best be found on cable television where two obscure media outlets occupy channels that have become headquarters of liberal propaganda. They are none other than the low rated MSNBC and Al Gore’s barely watched, ludicrous little cable venture, Current TV.
Current is a bastion of liberal lunacy that promotes its propaganda with the help of third, fourth, and even fifth rate, failed, Democrat politicians like disgraced former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer and the mindnumbingly dense and over-dramatic, inept, former Governor of Michigan, Jennifer Granholm, who both host hour long shows on Current. The station also has another level of talentless liberal, wannabe politicians who have hosting responsibilities. Like Cenk Uygur, an ignorant ass who thinks he’s funny and witty but consistently comes off as dumb and obnoxious. Current recently expanded their vast wealth of political experience with the addition of political sage Joy Behar, a ditzy dunce whose fat rump is usually spread out on the couch of “The View” and whose claim to fame is a heavy a Brooklyn based, Jewish accent that supposedly lends itself to some kind of comedic genius that she is suppose to have but which most people just don’t see as particularly creative or funny. Now in her sixth week at Current, Behar has hit her stride and offers an endless but consistent array of attacks, swipes, barbs, and downright dumb shots at Mitt Romney. And in between spewing her own ignorant interpretations of political reality, Behar seeks guests who will offer their own interpretation of the opinions they share with Behar.
Over the past few days, as the stupidity that is this new Joy Behar show played itself out, Behar conducted two separate interviews, one the day before the second presidential debate and one the day after the debate. Both of these interviews were truly disgusting. (See video of the two interviews below)
They were reprehensible examples of the most despicable and disingenuous tactics that anyone could dare to employ in politics. The first disgrace came in a one-on-one with actress Kathleen Turner. In that interview, the manly voiced Turner states that she is tired of being told what to do by “rich white men”.
The comment was an upalling and totally uncalled for interjection of racism, sexism, and class warfare that reeked of Hollywood hypocrisy and insincerity. First of all, if that is how Turner really feels, how come she never told that to any of the “rich, white men”, she listened to do when they directed her in movies that packed her purse and pockets full of dough? Secondly, Mitt Romney never told her or any of her friends what to do. He has however proposed a bunch of things that he will not have the government do if he is elected. But here we have a case of the very limited mind of another liberal trapped in a world of politic al bigotry who finds herself with only one way to try and win people over to Barack Obama…. by playing the race card, along with the class warfare angle too.
The following day, Behar had another expert who offered up their opinion of Romney. This time it was actor/comedian D.L. Hughley, a foul mouthed ignoramus who has more ill will and contempt for Caucasians than he has talent. Like Turner the day before, Hughley also played the race card with Romney. In this case he claimed that during the debate, Mitt Romney spoke to the President as if he was his servant.
Now I am not sure what debate D. L. Hughley was watching, but I am certain that I did not hear the disrespectful request by Mitt Romney for the President to shine his shoes or carry his bags that Hughley would have us think he heard. Nonetheless, Joy Behar responded to Hughley’s highly charged statement with glowing approval as her agreement with Hufghley gushed endlessly while claiming that she has been saying what Hughley said, on every show she’s on. Unfortunately for Hughley and Behar though, their claim was not supported by any examples and why not? Because they were lying. Throughout both debates, Mitt Romney treated Barack Obama with a great deal of respect. What he didn’t do was ignore all that he disagreed with the President on. But in Hughley and Behar’s parallel universe in liberal la-la land, any lack of support the president or disagreement with this President is an act of racism.
The sad truth though is that the remarks offered by Hughley, Behar, Turner and an increasing number of liberaltards, such as Chris Matthews, (see Mathew’s recent racist rant here) and the entire cast of clowns at MSNBC, are designed to do what Barack Obama has failed to do. They are designed to motivate the black vote to turn out for the President in the same historic numbers that they did back in 2008. It is becoming a critical element of the President’s increasingly desperate attempt to ge reelected. As seen here, with his “they’re gonna put Y’all back in chains” remark, it is a strategy that Vice President Biden has been trying to employ for quite some time now Biden’s
No matter what, this election continues to be close but ever since the first presidential debate back on October 3rd, polls are signaling a decisive shift towards Mitt Romney. It is so decisive that if it continues to build at the same rates we are currently seeing, by Election Day, Barack Obama will be looking at a defeat almost as resounding and embarrassing in the Electoral College as the one President George H. W. Bush experienced in 1992. While such a lopsided victory for Romney is not the most likely result, it is not out of question, especially if the President is unable to begin to first put a stop to Romney’s forward momentum and then begin to reverse it.
The problem is that with less than three weeks to go in the campaign liberals and the Obama-Biden campaign may not have enough left in their arsenal to overcome the rising Romney tide that is seeing the Romney-Ryan ticket’s numbers pick up across the board. So far this tide has raised Romney’s numbers among practically every critical demographic and every crucial swing state. Be it women, Hispanics, independents, or undecided voters, Mitt Romney has gotten through to the very voters that strategists once said he could not win the election without making significant inroads among. At the same time, so far the Obama-Biden ticket has spent more than $234 million on attack ads that have tried to define Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan as evil robber barons who are waging a war against women, children, the environment, education, puppies, and fluffy little kittens. On the flip side, Mitt Romney has spent a mere $91 million on ads to help define himself and the President. Given that Barack Obama has spent nearly two and half times the amount of money that Romney has on such ads, it would seem that the President’s strategy is not working and his ads are not doing the job they were supposed to. After throwing everything from Sandra Fluke and the kitchen sink at Romney, the Romney-Ryan ticket continues to gain on the Obama-Biden ticket among every demographic that the President can not afford to lose to Romney.
I suggest that they might have been working until the first presidential debate when after most Americans really got a chance to take a good look at Mitt Romney for the first time, and realized that he is not as extreme, heartless, irrational, and irresponsible as President Obama made him out to be. It is the same effect we saw in 1980 when the liberal narrative was that Ronald Reagan was a radical, war mongering, madman whose finger we could not allow anywhere near the nuclear button. But after the nation’s first real introduction to Reagan in the one and only debate between him and Jimmy Carter, American’s came to see that he was not the evil, unreasonable, extreme person they were led to believe he was. The same thing happened after the first presidential debate between President Obama and Governor Romney.
Liberals understand this and so now they are beginning to act on their fears instead of their hopes. Now they have stopped trying to paint the President’s pathetic polices and revolting record as promising prospects for our future. Instead they have begun to cut to the chase and target the one voting bloc that Romney can’t seem to make significant inroads into… African-Americans. In the case of black voters, Barack Obama is not at risk of losing of his overwhelming support from them to Mitt Romney. He is however at risk of not seeing blacks turnout to support him in the same historically large numbers that he saw in 2008. And without that same extraordinarily large turnout, Barack Obama is not likely to be able to win enough votes to win a second term from among the increasingly smaller share of votes that he getting from women, Hispanics, and independents.
The irony of it all though is that no one is willing to call a spade a spade here.
While the left is trying to fan racial tensions as a way to ensure that blacks come out to vote for President Obama, no one is calling them out for their disgraceful and blatant attempts to incite racial tension. And while the liberal liars who are trying to interject race in to the election are not being held responsible for their reprehensible words and conduct, no one is willing to admit that the most racist individuals of all here are the 90 to 95% of all African-American voters who are supporting President Obama. Any other group of Americans who offer such near unanimous support would labeled a bunch of racists. But because the people voting based on color here at African-Americans, the fact is ignored.
If America really wants to deal with the issue of racism, it can no longer ignore racism where it exists. That means we should not be letting off the hook liberals like Chris Matthews, D.L. Hughley, Joy Behar, Kathleen Turner, or all of the others who are using race against Mitt Romney. We cannot tolerate their attempts to cry wolf in regards to racism or their irresponsible attempts to incite racial tensions. And it also means we should not be ignoring the fact that African-Americans are the people who are actually the ones basing this election on race and ignoring the issues that should lie at the heart of their decision of whom to vote for. Instead of holding President Obama accountable to his dismal record, an overwhelming number of African-Americans have chosen to endorse Barack Obama simply because he is half black. In doing so they are ignoring the basic facts which are that under this President, regardless of his color, African-Americans are suffering more than any other voting bloc in the nation. African-Americans are now forced to rely on food stamps and government assistance for survival more than any time in US history. As both a percentage and gross total, more blacks are now incarcerated than they were at any previous point in US history, and African-Americans are now also the most unemployed ethnic group in the nation and are the ethnic group that leads all others when it comes to the number of foreclosed homes being taken away from them.
Normally, such a record would result in a hemorrhaging of support for the person under whom a particular group of people endured so much suffering. Up to now, that has not been the case with African-Americans. So far they remain blinded by color and loyal to the half of President which is black. However; the Obama record is so undeniably bad that while liberals and the President are not necessarily worried about blacks actually voting for Mitt Romney, they are quite fearful that disappointment with President Obama will force far too many blacks to stay home and just not vote. That is a harsh reality which has already cost the President the state of North Carolina.
In 2008, thanks to a relatively large African-American turnout for the President, he won that state, which is traditionally a large electoral rich state that Republicans can rely upon. President Obama had hoped to again deny the G.O.P. North Carolina’s electoral votes in 2012. They even held their national convention there in an attempt to keep the state blue in 2012. But as polls have shown North Carolina is now solidly for Mitt Romney and the reason for this is simple. Blacks in North Carolina arer not suddenly voting for Mitt Romney but they are not going to vote for Barack Obama in the same numbers they previously did, and without that support, the President is losing his edge and the election.
So get ready everyone, the left is about to start bluffing to a degree we have never seen before. They will try to lead us to believe that they have a full house in their hand and that Mitt Romney is going down. But as we are increasingly seeing, the only card Democrats have left which they can try do anything with is the race card. And they are going to try to do everything they can with it. Just ask D.L. Hughley and friends.
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Filed under: President Obama, Strategy | Tagged: Anthony Del Pellegrino, Black vote in North Carolina, black voter turnout critical to president obama's reelection, black votrer turnout, Blacks not turning out to vote for president obama, Blacks will n ot be turning out in the record numbers that they did in 2008, Current TV, D.L. Hughley Romney spoke to the president as if he was his servant, D.L. Hughley says Romney spoke to the President like he was his servant, D.L. Hughley's racist Romney comment, If you voted for Obama in 2008 to prove you're not a racist vote for Romney in 2012 to prove you're not an idiot, Joy Behar is an ass, Joy Behar Say Anything, Joy Behar show on Current tv, Joy Behar's racist remarks, Kathleen tells Joy Behar that she is tired of being told what to do by rich white men, Kathleen Turner, Kathleen turner rich white men, Kathleen turner tired of being told what to do by rich white men, Kathleen Turner's racist reamrk about Mitt Romney, kempite, liberal political bigotry, Liberals are racists, Liberals playing the race card, Obama is losing, political bigotry, presidential election, race card, Romney ahead because of the first presidential debate, Romney Ryan 2012, the view, White House 2012, wordpress political blogs | Leave a comment »